Global refined copper production will increase by around 3.4% to 28.3 million tons in 2025, forecasts the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
This will be driven by the continued expansion of production capacity in China and the start-up of new plants in other countries, most notably the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), India and Indonesia.
In 2026, copper output is expected to grow by 0.9% to around 28.6 million tons.
Global copper consumption is forecast to rise about 3% to 28.1 million tons this year and 2.1% to 28.7 million tons in 2026, ICSG said.
Meanwhile, demand in China is projected to grow by about 3.3% in 2025 and 1% next year. The PRC accounts for about 58% of global copper consumption.
“Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper-consuming regions remaining weak, particularly in the EU and Japan,” the group’s experts believe.
“Overall, however, global consumption is expected to continue to be supported by increased production activity in some key sectors” that are major copper end-users, “continued demand due to energy transition, urbanization, digitalization (data centers),” the report said.
At the end of 2024, there was a global copper surplus of 71,000 tons. This year, the oversupply of the metal in the global market is expected to be about 178 thousand tons (slightly below the April forecast), while in 2026, a deficit of about 150 thousand tons is projected (in April, a surplus of 209 thousand tons was expected).
Making forecasts, ICSG realizes that the situation on the world market can change under the influence of numerous factors, the report says.
The International Copper Study Group, established in 1992, is an intergovernmental organization that serves as a vehicle for international discussion and cooperation on copper-related issues. ICSG is the only multilateral institution dealing with copper production, consumption and trade. The group comprises 25 nations, including Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as the European Union.
For a video analysis of the world’s largest copper producers from 1970 to 2024, please visit the Experts Club think tank channel – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h8iU50z8C0.
Glencore, one of the world’s largest diversified mining groups, reduced copper production by 5% to 736 thousand tons in 9M2023, confirming its full-year forecast for the metal, the company said on Monday.
The decline reflects the sale of the Australian Cobar deposit in June 2023 and lower copper recovery rates as a by-product metal. Glencore still expects production of 1 million 40 thousand tons (with fluctuations in both directions of 30 thousand tons).
Nickel production decreased by 16% to 68.4 thousand tons. Glencore also cut its annual nickel forecast to 102 thousand tons (with a 4 thousand tonne deviation) from 112 thousand tons (with a 5 thousand tonne deviation). The decline is attributed to the ongoing recovery of Raglan’s productivity after the 2022 strike, maintenance downtime at the Sudbury plant and a revision of production at the Koniambo deposit.
Production of cobalt decreased by 2% (to 32.5 thousand tons), zinc – by 4% (to 672.1 thousand tons), coal – increased by 2% to 83.9 million tons. The annual forecasts were confirmed in all cases. The forecast for ferrochrome was lowered from 1.310 million tons (with a deviation of 30 thousand tons) to 1.2 million tons (with a deviation of 30 thousand tons).
Glencore continues to expect adjusted EBIT for 2023 to exceed the high end of its long-term guidance range of $2.2-3.2 billion per year, with a likely outcome in the range of $3.5-4 billion.
