Industrial dairy farming in Ukraine continued to recover in 2025, with the number of cows on farms and individual enterprises increasing by 2.3% and raw milk production increasing by 7.6% over 10 months, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
“This year, dairy farms will produce 0.2 million tons of milk more than in 2024, and milk supplies for processing will exceed 3.6 million tons (compared to 3.2 million tons last year). These results were made possible by favorable prices in 2023-2024, which stimulated active investment in the construction and expansion of farms,” the business association noted.
The SMPU noted that the situation worsened in the fall due to a sharp drop in world prices: butter in the EU fell in price by more than 30%, cheese by almost a quarter, and the price of dry milk fell significantly. This led to a decline in purchase prices for raw milk worldwide: FrieslandCampina has lowered them by almost 25% since August; prices have fallen in the US, New Zealand, and Mercosur countries. Since November, the decline has also significantly affected Ukraine, and it will continue in winter.
Globally, the low cost of raw materials could lead to bankruptcies among small farms, especially in the EU. Ukraine has a certain advantage in this situation, as it follows the “American model” with large dairy farms (averaging 300+ cows), modern technologies, its own feed base, and lower credit burdens.
“After the end of the price crisis, which is estimated to last until spring 2026, the global supply of milk will decline and prices will begin to recover. This will create new opportunities for the entire Ukrainian dairy sector, both milk suppliers and processors,” emphasized the association of dairy producers.
The SMPU called on milk suppliers to work together to develop long-term contracts.
As of November 1, 2025, there were 2.2 million head of cattle in Ukraine’s private and industrial sectors, including 1.11 million cows, which is 3% and 1% less than in October of this year and 10% and 10% less than in the same period last year, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Committee.
The industry association specified that about 47% of animals are kept on industrial farms, and 53% on private farms.
According to the AMU, the industrial sector has 947,100 head of cattle, which is 2,000 head more (+0.2%) than on October 1, 2025. The number of cows is 384,100, an increase of 500 head (+0.1%) over the last month. Over the past year, the number of cattle on farms has increased by 28,600 (+3%), and the number of cows has increased by 8,800 (+2%).
At the same time, there are 1.74 million head of cattle in the private sector, which is 64 thousand head (-6%) less than on October 1, 2025. As of November 1, 2025, the number of cows in private households was 721,200, which is 17,000 (-2%) less than a month ago. Over the past year, the number of cattle in private households has decreased by 253,000 (-19%), and the number of cows has decreased by 137,000 (-16%).
AVM analyst Georgy Kukhaleishvili noted that the number of cows is declining mainly in the private sector. The decline in cattle numbers is a long-standing problem in Ukraine due to the lack of an effective state program to support dairy farming. The war has only exacerbated the situation.
The expert recalled that most farms in Ukraine were built in the 1970s and 1980s and no longer meet the requirements for keeping animals. The lack of premises suitable for keeping cows creates the conditions for a further reduction in livestock numbers. Many farmers are not investing in increasing their cow herds during the war and are experiencing a shortage of working capital. Farmers’ production costs are rising faster than the prices of finished products due to the increase in the cost of feed, the cost of electricity, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and the decline in the purchasing power of the population.
However, dairy farms in relatively safe regions of Ukraine are modernizing existing facilities and building new ones. They are also increasing their high-yielding cow herds. According to AVM estimates, as of November, at least 40 farms are modernizing and expanding their facilities.
However, in October, the growth rate of the cow herd in the industrial sector also slowed down, which may be related to the continuing “bearish trend” in the dairy market and the decline in prices for exchange-traded commodities and raw milk. Over the past month, the number of cows has not changed and has not grown on dairy farms in 14 regions, not only in the frontline regions, but also in relatively safe areas of central and western Ukraine, such as Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad regions, the AVM summarized.
As of May 1, 2025, in Ukraine, the number of cattle in the household and industrial sectors increased by 2% to 2.179 million head, including cows — by 0.3% to 1.153 million, However, this figure is 8% lower than in the same period last year for both cattle and cows, according to the press service of the Association of Milk Producers (AVM).
The industry association noted that about 42% of animals are kept on industrial farms and 58% on private farms. The industrial sector has 921,500 head of cattle, which is 5,000 head (+0.5%) more than on April 1, 2025. The number of cows is 382,400, an increase of 5,200 (+1.4%) over the last month. Over the last year, the number of cattle on farms has grown by 3,800 (+0.4%), and the number of cows by 3,200 (+0.8%).
There are 1 million 258.3 thousand head of cattle in the private sector, which is 37 thousand head (+3%) more than on April 1, 2025. As of May 1, 2025, the number of cows in private households was 770,900, which is 2,000 (-0.2%) less than a month ago. Over the past year, the number of cattle in private households has decreased by 186 thousand heads (-13%), and the number of cows by 107 thousand heads (-12%).
AVM analyst Georgy Kukhaleishvili pointed out that the reduction in cattle numbers has been occurring in Ukraine for many years due to the lack of an effective state program to support dairy farming. The decline accelerated after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. A typical situation in the frontline regions is the death of cattle as a result of shelling. Many farmers left their cows in the occupied territories. These animals are not registered or have been confiscated by Russian occupiers and sold for meat. Farmers send injured cows to slaughter, which also contributes to the decline in livestock numbers.
“As of now, there are prerequisites for the relocation of farms from the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions to other regions of Ukraine amid intensified Russian missile and bomb strikes on border and frontline settlements. Farmers will only be able to transport part of their livestock, as most farms in Ukraine were built in the 1970s and 1980s and no longer meet the requirements for keeping animals. The lack of premises suitable for keeping cows creates conditions for a further reduction in livestock numbers,” the AVM emphasized.
In addition to the frontline regions, cattle numbers have declined on farms in Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi regions, which is likely due to the fact that they are working to improve their efficiency and are selling unproductive cows. An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Hungary and Slovakia poses a potential risk of increased culling if the disease spreads to western Ukraine.
Many farmers are not investing in increasing their cow herds during the war and are experiencing a shortage of working capital. According to the study “Ukraine: The Impact of War on Agricultural Profitability” conducted by the UACB, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food with the support of GFDRR, farmers’ production costs are rising faster than prices for finished products due to higher feed and electricity prices, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and a decline in the purchasing power of the population.
“There is cautious optimism about an increase in the number of dairy farms in relatively safe regions of Ukraine, which, despite the war, are modernizing existing facilities, building new ones, and increasing their high-yielding cow herds,” the industry association concluded, adding that as of May, at least 40 farms are investing in these measures.
Cow prices in February 2025 increased by 20-46% depending on fatness, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to the report, the average price for cows below average fatness in the first half of February 2025 increased to 73 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 23 UAH or 46% more than a month earlier, for cows of average fatness – up to 72 UAH/kg excluding VAT (18.25 UAH or 34% more), for higher fatness – up to 70 UAH/kg excluding VAT (12 UAH or 20% more).
“Over the past few weeks, prices for cattle have been rising in Ukraine, driven by an increase in live exports in December-January. The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the German state of Brandenburg led to a reduction in the export of live animals from the EU. However, the demand for cattle in foreign markets is quite active during the period of preparation for Ramadan in Muslim countries,” the industry association explained.
