Analysts at Credit Suisse Bank forecast the economic growth of Ukraine at 4% and higher in 2020 and 2021, according to a bank report. “Our main expectation from the Ukrainian economy is that in the coming years it will grow at or above 4%, which is slightly higher than its potential,” the report said.
“If our viewpoint is correct, investors should consider the possibility of a higher payout ratio for GDP warrants from 2021 (40% instead of 15% if real GDP growth reaches 4%),” analysts said.
At the same time, interest in the Ukrainian securities market will continue this year, which will support the national currency rate. However, the NBU will continue to participate in foreign exchange interventions, restraining the further strengthening of the hryvnia, Credit Suisse suggests.
“In the future, we expect a moderate weakening of the hryvnia against a background of a lower difference in interest rates, a wider current account deficit and a more active NBU policy to curb the strengthening of the hryvnia,” the report said.
The central bank will also continue to steadily lower the discount rate in 2020, analysts suggest.
