The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine, calculated by the State Statistics Service, in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased to 98.7% from 98.5% in the third quarter, from 96.9% in the second and from 90.2% in the first quarter of this year.
According to the State Statistics Service, the indicator of business confidence in retail trade – the only one of five in the area of positive values – deteriorated from 6.8% to 4.3% in the third quarter.
At the same time, the values of other indicators of business confidence improved, albeit slightly: in construction to minus 22.4% from minus 23.6%, in the service sector – to minus 10.8% from minus 12.8%, in processing industry – to minus 6.4% from minus 7.5%.
The consumer confidence indicator rose to minus 21.1% from minus 21.2% in the third quarter.
As reported, the calculation of the economic sentiment indicator was first started in the first quarter of 2017. The index reached a record high level of 110.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, however, since the onset of the coronavirus crisis in the world, it first dropped to 108.4%, and then collapsed to a record low of 73.3%.
The agency indicated that the indicator was calculated in accordance with the methodology for calculating indicators of business expectations in accordance with the requirements of the expanded Special Data Dissemination Standard of the International Monetary Fund, updated by the State Statistics Service in December 2017.
Business confidence indicators, by sector, are assessed based on surveys on the current level of orders and finished goods inventory, changes in sales volumes over the past three months, forecast of changes in production/sales volumes and the number of employees in the next three months.
The largest contribution in the economic sentiment indicator definition is the contribution of the indicator of business confidence in industry – 40%, followed by the service sector – 30%, construction with retail trade – 5% each. The weight of consumer sentiment is 20%.
The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine, calculated by the State Statistics Service, in the third quarter of 2018 was 109.6% compared with 104% and 108.8% respectively in the second and first quarters of this year. According to the service, three out of the five indicators of business confidence improved: in retail trade (from 5.3% in the second quarter to 10.7%), in services (from minus 5% to 0.3%), and in construction (from minus 21.5% to minus 18.7%).
At the same time, consumer confidence (from minus 27.1% to minus 29.1%) and business confidence in processing industry (from minus 3.9% to minus 4.8%) worsened.
The agency said that in the third quarter of 2017, the indicator of economic sentiment was 103.9%, but in the fourth quarter it dropped to 100.4%.
The indicator is calculated according to the methodology for calculating business expectations indicators in accordance with the requirements of the expanded International Monetary Fund Special Data Dissemination Standard, updated by the State Statistics Service in December 2017.
The indicators of business confidence, depending on the sector, are estimated on the basis of surveys on the current level of orders and finished goods stocks, changes in sales volumes for the last three months, forecast of changes in production/sales and the number of employees in the next three months. The State Statistics Service calculates the indicator of consumer confidence using the data of such a study of GfK Ukraine.
