The gradual approximation of the regulatory environment and digital development of Ukraine to the level of the European Union as part of integration into the EU Digital Single Market will affect the productivity and economic growth of the country, according to a Tuesday statement on the website of the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
The study entitled “Ukraine’s integration into the EU Digital Single Market: potential economic benefits” was carried out by the Trade+ Center for International Trade Analysis at the Kyiv School of Economics and NGO Ukrainian Center for European Policy and was ordered by the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
The results of the study contain expert assessments and real calculations of the potential profit for the country’s economy from integration into the EU Digital Single Market.
According to the study, the gradual approximation of the regulatory environment and digital development of Ukraine to the EU level within the framework of integration into the EU Digital Single Market will influence bilateral trade: an increase in exports of goods from Ukraine to the EU is expected by 11.8%-17% ($2.4-3.4 billion), services – by 7.6%-12.2% ($302.5-485.5 million).
It will also impact the productivity and economic growth of Ukraine: GDP growth in Ukraine is expected at the level of 2.4-12.1% ($3.1-15.8 billion), the welfare of citizens – by 3.6-7.8%.
It is also expected that the export of goods from the EU to Ukraine will grow by 17.7-21.7% ($4.1-5 billion), and services by 5.7-9.1% to ($191-305 million).
According to the study, an increase in the level of digitalization by 1% will lead to an increase in Ukraine’s GDP by 0.42%.
“Various scenarios of integration into the EU Digital Single Market show that the size of potential benefits will depend on the scale of regulatory and digital transformations in Ukraine. The faster and more efficiently we implement the necessary transformations, the faster we will be able to realize the benefits of integration into the EU Digital Single Market,” Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation for European Integration Valeria Ionan said.
According to the study, the main economic benefits for Ukraine from integration into the EU Digital Single Market are: reduction of transaction and trade costs in trade in goods and services between the EU and Ukraine; growth of business efficiency, economic productivity and GDP of Ukraine; growing well-being of citizens of Ukraine and the EU: better access and lower prices for digital innovative goods and services, consumer protection; development of innovative products and services of digital infrastructure.
In addition, bringing Ukraine’s legislation and standards closer to EU legislation and standards will reduce regulatory differences between Ukraine and the EU in the digital sphere and accelerate Ukraine’s digital development.
Ukraine and ten other countries have joined the EU sanctions against the terrorist organizations ISIS and Al-Qaeda, as well as individuals, groups, enterprises and organizations associated with them, the European Council said.
“The Candidate Countries the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania2, the country of the Stabilisation and Association Process and potential candidate Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the EFTA countries Iceland and Liechtenstein, members of the European Economic Area, as well as Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Armenia and Georgia align themselves with this Council Decision,” the European Council said on its website on Thursday.
It is noted that these countries will ensure that their national policies conform to these Council Decisions.
“The European Union takes note of this commitment and welcomes it,” the message reads.
On 19 October 2020, the Council adopted Decision (CFSP) 2020/15161. The Council Decision extends the existing restrictive measures until 31 October 2021.
The EU intends to provide Ukraine with EUR 20 million of financial support for the digital transformation development, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said.
“EUR 9.6 million is the first financial contribution that Ukraine will receive under the EU4DigitalUA project. The Estonia’s e-Governance Academy and the Spanish foundation FIIAPP Spain will help in the implementation of projects on electronic services, cybersecurity, data protection, and the development of registries,” Fedorov wrote on the Facebook.
He wrote that funding will also cover: development of infrastructure for electronic government; modernization of public e-services and development of services on the Diia (Action) portal and in the Dia app; visualization of information about access to broadband Internet in Ukraine; further connection of the main registers to the Trembita data exchange system; development of a national personal identifier, a state digital identity card and a register registration addresses of citizens; development of trust services.
“Support of digitalization in Ukraine is at the same time support of all key reforms and anti-corruption. The country will receive more qualitative changes. We are grateful to the EU for their trust and we act together,” Fedorov wrote.
Some 39.3% of representatives of Ukrainian enterprises believe that their enterprises have significantly/insignificantly benefited from the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, according to a poll by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
According to a poll presented at an online presentation on Friday, in 2020, the largest number of enterprises assessed the impact of this document positively, since in 2018 this figure was 28%, in 2017 – 31.6%, and in 2016 – 28%.
At the same time, 50.7% of the respondents believe that the agreement did not affect their enterprise, and 5.6% believe the enterprise has lost significantly/slightly.
The lowest level of positive assessments of the impact of the agreement is among exporters. Some 22.7% of exporters indicated that the enterprise won, 62.4% that the document did not affect the enterprise, and 4.7% indicated that the enterprise lost.
Among the importers, 44.4% of the respondents believe that the enterprise won, 47.9% that the agreement did not have impact on the enterprise, and 3.8% that the enterprise lost. Some 45.1% of exporters and importers have positive expectations, 45.9% do not expect the impact of the agreement, and 4.9% expect a loss.
Big business feels more of the positive impact of the agreement. Among the representatives of large enterprises, 46.5% note that the enterprise won, 44.2% that the agreement did not have the impact on the enterprise, and 3.5% that the enterprise lost. The positive impact of the agreement is also indicated by 36.6% of the surveyed medium-sized enterprises, by 39.2% of small and by 39.4% of micro enterprises. The level of positive ratings increased among businesses of all sizes compared to 2016. The fact that the agreement did not have the impact on the enterprise is indicated by 50.9% of medium-sized, 49.5% of small and 52.7% of micro enterprises. Some 5.4% of the respondents of medium-sized enterprises said that the enterprise has lost. The same opinion is shared by 4.8% of respondents of small and 3.8% of micro enterprises.
The trade sector felt the greatest positive impact of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement (43.2%), and the least number of positive assessments was among the agricultural enterprises (21.7%). At the same time, in the service sector, there is the highest share of respondents who point to a loss caused by the agreement (10.4%). Compared to 2016, the share of positive assessments of industrial and trade enterprises increased by almost 1.5 times, at the same time, the level of positive assessments of agricultural and service enterprises almost did not change.
The leader among the positive assessments of the impact of the agreement is Lviv region, where 55.1% of the respondents indicated that their enterprise benefited from it. Almost every second respondent gave positive assessments in Rivne (48.3%), Ternopil (48%) and Chernivtsi (47.6%) regions. The smallest number of positive assessments is in Kherson region (18.2%), where only every fifth respondent indicated a benefit from signing an agreement.
In Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Donetsk, Sumy and Vinnytsia regions, there are no respondents who felt a negative impact on their enterprise. In more than half of the regions, negative assessments of the impact of the agreement are less than 4%. And in Kherson region, there is the highest share of respondents who believe that their company has lost from the agreement (13.6%).
Some 44.9% of the respondents believe that their company will benefit from the agreement within the next five years, 24.3% that it will not have impact, and 5.6% that the company will lose.
The least positive expectations are among enterprises that are engaged only in export (34.1%). Almost every second representative of import enterprises (48.1%) or simultaneously export and import (48.6%) has positive expectations. Among the exporters, there is the highest proportion of respondents who do not expect the impact of the agreement on the company (28.2%).
The highest expectations of a positive impact of the agreement are in Cherkasy (62.5%), Lviv (60.3%), and Ternopil (60%) regions. The smallest number of enterprises that expect positive results are in Kirovohrad (30%), Zaporizhia (31.7%), and Chernihiv (34.5%) regions.
The poll was conducted in 2020 by the project “Support for the Public Initiative for Fair and Transparent Customs” with the support of the European Union, the International Renaissance Foundation and Atlas Network. More than 1,000 representatives of enterprises were surveyed from micro to large enterprises, engaged in export and/or import. Most of the respondents are micro and small enterprises, representatives of industry and trade.
The independent and professionally governed National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is critical for macro-financial support from the European Union and other international partners, Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Matti Maasikas has said.
“A strong, independent and professionally run NBU is critical to Ukraine’s financial stability, banking sector reform, investment, economic development to benefit Ukraine’s citizens, and macro-financial support from the EU and other international partners,” he wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
Zero duty on the import of wine from the EU will be introduced from 2021 in accordance with Ukraine’s commitments to zero import duties on a number of goods within a seven-year period after the signing of the economic part of the Association Agreement with the European Union, the Development Director of the Ukrainian Horticultural Association, the international consultant to the UN FAO, Yekateryna Zvereva, has said.
“From 2021, a zero duty will be introduced on the import of wine into Ukraine (from the countries of the European Union). At the same time, the situation in the wine market is not the best today – wine import to Ukraine increased by 25-30% compared to last year,” she wrote in a column to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
She clarified that at present the duty on the import of wine from the EU is EUR 0.3-0.4/liter.
With reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, Zvereva reported that in 2019 Ukraine exported $11.9 million worth of wine. At the same time, Kazakhstan became the largest foreign market for Ukrainian winemakers, where products worth $1.3 million were delivered. In addition, one of the largest markets remains Germany, where $1 million worth of wine was exported.
At the same time, according to the expert, import of wine last year amounted to $ 146.7 million.
In addition, in the first half of this year, according to the State Customs Service, Ukraine exported $6.1 million worth of wine, while imports amounted to $67.9 million, the expert said.
