The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 may amount to 5.5% of GDP with a further recovery of growth by 3.5-4% in the next two years, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect.
According to the materials of Emerging Markets Outlook 2021, experts admit that the next tranche of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be allocated to Ukraine in early 2021, which will pave the way for obtaining funding from other international partners.
At the same time, the central bank will leave the discount rate at 6% per annum, according to the review.
Вefore the introduction of quarantine due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Ukrainian business improved its expectations regarding the slowdown in inflation in the next 12 months to 5.1% from 7% early this year and the strengthening of the hryvnia to UAH 26.01/$1 from UAH 27.43/$1.
According to the quarterly business outlook survey conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from February 4 through March 4, 2020, business was more restrained in expecting growth in production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Thus, almost 30.8% (37.6% a quarter earlier) of respondents expected an increase in this indicator, another 48.7% (45.5%) believed that they would remain at the same level.
According to the survey, business activity of Ukrainian enterprises decreased to a moderate level amid a reduction in the Business Outlook Index (BOI) for the next 12 months to 110.5% from 112% a quarter earlier.
The decrease in BOI was insignificant due to high business estimates for the total sales of own-produced products, investment costs for machinery, equipment and inventory, as well as the financial and economic condition of enterprises.
According to the survey, the share of companies expecting improvement in their financial and economic condition over the next 12 months fell to 27.6% from 28% the previous quarter, while those forecasting deterioration increased to 10.8% from about 10%. The regulator said that all surveyed enterprises, except for the water supply sector, had optimistic forecasts, and the mining industry had the most optimistic forecasts.
Revenue of Metinvest B.V. (the Netherlands), the parent company of the Metinvest mining and metallurgical group, fell by 7.5% or by $77 million in April compared with the previous month, to $954 million from $1.031 billion.
According to the preliminary unaudited consolidated monthly financial statements of the company, published on Thursday, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in April was $173 million, which is 6% ($11 million) more than in March of the current year ($184 million).
According to the report, the adjusted EBITDA of the metallurgical division of the group in April 2019 was $53 million ($46 million in March), including $1 million from participation in the joint venture (minus $2 million). The mining division’s EBITDA is $151 million ($148 million in March), including from the joint venture – $28 million ($19 million). The expenses of the management company were $2 million ($8 million).
Total revenue in April 2019 consisted of the sales of the metallurgical division in the amount of $791 million ($844 million in March), mining – $305 million ($340 million), and intra-group sales – $142 ($152 million).
The total debt of the company in April increased $72 million compared to March, to $2.754 billion from $2.828 billion. At the same time, cash and its equivalents increased by $113 million, to $331 million from $218 million.
