The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August report raised its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by 10.8% to 21.6 million tons, and exports by 7.7% to 14 million tons
Analysts also revised upward the domestic consumption of wheat in Ukraine by 10.5% to 7.4 million tons. Ukraine will enter the season with starting residues of 770,000 tons, while a month earlier they amounted to 1.08 million tons. USDA expects that by the end of 2024/2025 MY the country will have 1.05 mln tons of wheat, which is 9.4% higher than the July forecast.
At the same time, USDA forecasts world wheat production for the 2024/2025 season at 798.28 (+ 2.18 million tons from last forecast) and world exports at 214.86 million tons (+ 1.98 million tons). The experts lowered the forecast of wheat ending stocks in the world to 256.62 million tons (- 1.97 million tons).
IMC Agro Holding has completed harvesting winter wheat from 20.2 thousand hectares and harvested 139.8 thousand tons with an average yield of 6.9 t/ha, which is the second best result in the history of the company and 60% higher than the average wheat yield in Ukraine, the company’s press service reported on its Facebook page.
According to the report, the agricultural holding is satisfied with the results, as most of the harvested winter crops meet the quality parameters of milling wheat.
“Last fall’s weather conditions were favorable for timely sowing, good germination and tillering of winter wheat. This spring, we carried out fertilization and plant protection against weeds, diseases and pests in accordance with the technological map. All operations were completed on time according to the crop development stages and weather conditions,” said IMC Production Director Mykola Pylypenko.
He noted that the agroholding started wheat harvesting earlier than usual due to the lack of precipitation needed for optimal plant development in the Poltava cluster. This led to a slight decrease in yields and an early start of the harvest in Poltava region.
“In other regions of the company, Chernihiv and Sumy, weather conditions were more favorable, and we significantly exceeded our targets for yield and gross production of winter wheat,” summarized Pylypenko.
“IMC is an integrated group of companies operating in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv regions (north and center of Ukraine) in the crop production, elevators and warehouses segments. The land bank is about 120 thousand hectares, storage capacity is 554 thousand tons, with a 2023 harvest of 1.002 million tons.
In 2023, IMC posted a net loss of $21.03 million compared to $1.12 million a year earlier, and its EBITDA decreased 11.3 times to $3.22 million. The holding’s revenue increased by 22.3% to $139.45 million, while the share of exports decreased to 68% from 73% a year earlier.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast, to 71.8 million tons, the association’s press service reports.
“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer make adjustments. Another decrease in the harvest forecast for the new season was caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds,” the report says.
According to experts, under such conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will amount to 41 mln tons, which is 2.5 mln tons less than the previous forecast. Last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grains and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 mln tons of grains and oilseeds. Thus, the drop in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 mln tons (22 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 mln tonnes.
The UGA pointed out that the consumption of wheat in Ukraine has decreased due to the war and significant outflow of population abroad. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, wheat consumption decreased from 8 mln tons to just over 6 mln tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.95 mln tonnes, which is 350 thsd tonnes more than the previous estimate (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to reach about 2 mln tonnes (last year barley exports amounted to almost 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry period in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year’s harvest of 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 18.5 mln tons (last season, exports amounted to 29.3 mln tons, in particular due to carry-over corn stocks).
The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at 12.8 mln tons, which is 0.9 mln tons lower than the previous estimate (2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes, while sunflower crushing for vegetable oil could reach 12.5 mln tonnes. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, the UGA expects the rapeseed harvest to reach 4.3 mln tonnes (4.5 mln tonnes in 2023), while the exports in 2024/2025 MY will be 3.4 mln tonnes (3.7 mln tonnes in the current season).
As for soybeans, despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under the crop, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to get a bigger harvest due to lower yields, experts believe. According to their estimates, the soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at 4.8 mln tonnes, which is 0.7 mln tonnes less than the previous estimate (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.5 mln tonnes (last season – almost 3 mln tonnes).
As reported, in 2023, the UGA estimated the harvest at 82.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
Agrarians in all regions of Ukraine have already harvested 22.325 million tons of new crops from 5.872 million hectares, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, more than 19 million tons of grains and more than 3 million tons of oilseeds have already been harvested.
It is specified that 14.7 million tons of wheat have been harvested from 3.502 million hectares at a yield of 42 c/ha, 3.8 million tons of barley from 1020.2 thousand hectares at a yield of 37.9 c/ha, 416.3 thousand tons of peas from 189.8 thousand hectares at a yield of 21.9 c/ha.
Ukraine also continues harvesting oilseeds. In particular, more than 3 mln tons of rapeseed have been harvested from 1086.3 thou hectares with a yield of 28.3 c/ha and 0.3 thou tons of soybeans from 0.2 thou hectares with a yield of 19.3 c/ha.
Also, the top three in terms of grain harvesting are farmers of Odesa region – 733.3 thou hectares, Dnipropetrovska – 630.7 thou hectares, Mykolaivska – 536.5 thou hectares. Khmelnytsky region is the leader in terms of yield with 64 c/ha.
Farmers in Poltava region have completed harvesting early grains and pulses.
In Ukraine, in 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024 – June 2025), the harvest of seeds of major oilseeds will amount to 22.5 mln tonnes, up 3.8% compared to the previous season and higher than the forecast of 21.686 mln tonnes by the State Statistics Service, the industry association Ukroliyaprom said.
According to the industry association’s forecast, sunflower and soybean production is expected to grow this season, while the gross harvest of rapeseed may decline.
The largest increase in 2023/24 MY is expected for soybeans – 5.1 mln tonnes, up 7.5% compared to last year’s figure of 4.743 mln tonnes.
This growth is due to the increase in the planted area by 7.4% to 1.97 mln ha, while the oilseed yield will remain at the level of the previous season and amount to 25.9 c/ha, the experts explained.
According to the analysts’ forecast, the sunflower production in 2024 is expected to reach 13 mln tonnes, up 2% compared to 12.76 mln tonnes in the previous year. The yield of the oilseed will not change and will amount to 24.5 c/ha, while its area will expand to 5.3 mln hectares (+2%).
Ukroliyaprom forecasts the rapeseed harvest at 4.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower than in 2023/24 (4.184 mln tonnes). The projected decline in production will be due to a 4.3% decrease in oilseeds acreage to 1.37 mln ha, while rapeseed yield will remain at the level of last year and amount to 29.2 c/ha.
World grain production in 2023-2024 will be 1.2% higher than a year earlier, amounting to 2.846 billion tons, taking into account the increase in barley, rice and sorghum production, FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) predicts.
According to its review, global production of corn and wheat will decline, while barley, rice and sorghum production will increase. In addition, the recent unfavorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region are likely to lead to a decline in global wheat production, but this possibility is not yet reflected in the forecast.
At the same time, global grain stocks are likely to increase by 1.5% compared to the initial level and reach a record high of 897 million tons. Corn, barley, sorghum, and rice stocks are expected to increase, while wheat stocks may decline. The global stocks-to-use ratio is likely to remain at 30.9%.
In addition, the FAO revised its forecast for global cereal consumption in 2024-2025 by 0.5% to a new record level of 2.851 billion tons, which it explained by an increase in food consumption, especially rice.
Global grain trade will decline by 1.3% compared to the previous year to 481 million tons, due to lower prospects for corn trade. International trade in rice is expected to grow strongly, FAO predicts.
