The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast, to 71.8 million tons, the association’s press service reports.
“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer make adjustments. Another decrease in the harvest forecast for the new season was caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds,” the report says.
According to experts, under such conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will amount to 41 mln tons, which is 2.5 mln tons less than the previous forecast. Last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grains and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 mln tons of grains and oilseeds. Thus, the drop in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 mln tons (22 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 mln tonnes.
The UGA pointed out that the consumption of wheat in Ukraine has decreased due to the war and significant outflow of population abroad. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, wheat consumption decreased from 8 mln tons to just over 6 mln tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.95 mln tonnes, which is 350 thsd tonnes more than the previous estimate (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to reach about 2 mln tonnes (last year barley exports amounted to almost 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry period in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year’s harvest of 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 18.5 mln tons (last season, exports amounted to 29.3 mln tons, in particular due to carry-over corn stocks).
The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at 12.8 mln tons, which is 0.9 mln tons lower than the previous estimate (2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes, while sunflower crushing for vegetable oil could reach 12.5 mln tonnes. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, the UGA expects the rapeseed harvest to reach 4.3 mln tonnes (4.5 mln tonnes in 2023), while the exports in 2024/2025 MY will be 3.4 mln tonnes (3.7 mln tonnes in the current season).
As for soybeans, despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under the crop, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to get a bigger harvest due to lower yields, experts believe. According to their estimates, the soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at 4.8 mln tonnes, which is 0.7 mln tonnes less than the previous estimate (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.5 mln tonnes (last season – almost 3 mln tonnes).
As reported, in 2023, the UGA estimated the harvest at 82.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
Agrarians in all regions of Ukraine have already harvested 22.325 million tons of new crops from 5.872 million hectares, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, more than 19 million tons of grains and more than 3 million tons of oilseeds have already been harvested.
It is specified that 14.7 million tons of wheat have been harvested from 3.502 million hectares at a yield of 42 c/ha, 3.8 million tons of barley from 1020.2 thousand hectares at a yield of 37.9 c/ha, 416.3 thousand tons of peas from 189.8 thousand hectares at a yield of 21.9 c/ha.
Ukraine also continues harvesting oilseeds. In particular, more than 3 mln tons of rapeseed have been harvested from 1086.3 thou hectares with a yield of 28.3 c/ha and 0.3 thou tons of soybeans from 0.2 thou hectares with a yield of 19.3 c/ha.
Also, the top three in terms of grain harvesting are farmers of Odesa region – 733.3 thou hectares, Dnipropetrovska – 630.7 thou hectares, Mykolaivska – 536.5 thou hectares. Khmelnytsky region is the leader in terms of yield with 64 c/ha.
Farmers in Poltava region have completed harvesting early grains and pulses.
In Ukraine, in 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024 – June 2025), the harvest of seeds of major oilseeds will amount to 22.5 mln tonnes, up 3.8% compared to the previous season and higher than the forecast of 21.686 mln tonnes by the State Statistics Service, the industry association Ukroliyaprom said.
According to the industry association’s forecast, sunflower and soybean production is expected to grow this season, while the gross harvest of rapeseed may decline.
The largest increase in 2023/24 MY is expected for soybeans – 5.1 mln tonnes, up 7.5% compared to last year’s figure of 4.743 mln tonnes.
This growth is due to the increase in the planted area by 7.4% to 1.97 mln ha, while the oilseed yield will remain at the level of the previous season and amount to 25.9 c/ha, the experts explained.
According to the analysts’ forecast, the sunflower production in 2024 is expected to reach 13 mln tonnes, up 2% compared to 12.76 mln tonnes in the previous year. The yield of the oilseed will not change and will amount to 24.5 c/ha, while its area will expand to 5.3 mln hectares (+2%).
Ukroliyaprom forecasts the rapeseed harvest at 4.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower than in 2023/24 (4.184 mln tonnes). The projected decline in production will be due to a 4.3% decrease in oilseeds acreage to 1.37 mln ha, while rapeseed yield will remain at the level of last year and amount to 29.2 c/ha.
World grain production in 2023-2024 will be 1.2% higher than a year earlier, amounting to 2.846 billion tons, taking into account the increase in barley, rice and sorghum production, FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) predicts.
According to its review, global production of corn and wheat will decline, while barley, rice and sorghum production will increase. In addition, the recent unfavorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region are likely to lead to a decline in global wheat production, but this possibility is not yet reflected in the forecast.
At the same time, global grain stocks are likely to increase by 1.5% compared to the initial level and reach a record high of 897 million tons. Corn, barley, sorghum, and rice stocks are expected to increase, while wheat stocks may decline. The global stocks-to-use ratio is likely to remain at 30.9%.
In addition, the FAO revised its forecast for global cereal consumption in 2024-2025 by 0.5% to a new record level of 2.851 billion tons, which it explained by an increase in food consumption, especially rice.
Global grain trade will decline by 1.3% compared to the previous year to 481 million tons, due to lower prospects for corn trade. International trade in rice is expected to grow strongly, FAO predicts.
As of May 30, Ukraine sowed 5.5 million hectares with grains and legumes, and more than 7 million hectares with oilseeds, which is 98.3% of the forecast, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, 252.5 thousand hectares were planted with wheat (249 thousand hectares a week earlier), which is 102.6% of the plan, barley – 782.2 thousand hectares (781.6 thousand hectares) or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thousand hectares (162.1 thousand hectares) or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thousand hectares (162.1 thousand hectares) or 95.6%. or 95.6%, peas – 162.5 thou hectares (162.1 thou hectares) or 95.6%. hectares (162.1 thou hectares) or 101.6%, oats – 163.7 thou hectares (162.7 thou hectares) or 100.7%, millet – 60 thou hectares (43.1 thou hectares) or 70%, buckwheat – 85.5 thou hectares (48.1 thou hectares) or 68%, corn – 3.809 million hectares.
According to the report, wheat was planted on 252.5 thou hectares, which corresponds to the previous week’s figure and is 102.6% of the plan, barley – 782.6 thou hectares (782.2 thou hectares) or 95.7%, peas – 162.5 thou hectares (101.6%), oats – 163.7 thou hectares (100.7%). The total area under wheat planted is 63.6 thou hectares (60 thou hectares), or 75%, buckwheat – 97.7 thou hectares (85.5 thou hectares), or 78%, corn – 3.895 mln ha (3.809 mln ha), or 100% of the plan, other grains and legumes – 87.3 thou hectares (84.4 thou hectares), or 94% of the plan.
Last week, the agrarians sowed 104.8 thou hectares of spring crops. A week earlier, this figure was 311.7 thou hectares, and 784.7 thou hectares the week before.
In addition, sunflower was sown on 5.124 mln ha, or 97% of the plan (a week earlier the figure was 4.958 mln ha), soybeans – on 1.932 mln ha, or 97% (1.83 mln ha), sugar beets – on 250.1 thou ha, or 97%.
Agrarians in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Kirovograd, Odesa, Poltava, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia regions have fully completed sowing of spring crops.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 74.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service reports.
According to the report, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer may make adjustments.
“The potential decline in the harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics) and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country,” the UGA explained and added that under such conditions, exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year will amount to 43.5 million tons.
According to the forecast of the UGA, in the ending season, exports of grains and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds.
The UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks will be about 2.4 mln tonnes.
According to the UGA, barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.6 mln tonnes (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at around 2 mln tonnes (this season barley exports are forecasted at 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage and dry conditions in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year’s 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 20.5 mln tons (in the current season, exports are expected to reach 26 mln tons).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 to reach 13.7 mln tons (in 2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes in the current season), while sunflower processing for vegetable oil could reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes. In the current season, processing will reach 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 mln tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 mln tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 mln tonnes).
As for soybeans, this is the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. The soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 mln tons in 2024 (4.9 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tons (in the current season it is expected to reach 3.3 mln tons).
As reported, the UGA estimated the harvest in 2023 at 82.8 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
