Demand for oil in the world in 2024 compared to last year will grow by 962 thousand b / s, according to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
A month earlier the agency forecasted this indicator at the level of 1.062 mln b/s. Thus, analysts downgraded the estimate of demand growth by 100 thousand b/s.
The adjustment is due to an upward revision of the demand estimate for 2023: by 145 thousand b/s to 102.24 mln b/s. The agency’s analysts also raised the forecast for 2024: by 45 thousand b/s, to 103.2 mln b/s.
In 2025, the IEA expects oil demand to increase to 104.23 mln b/s, with this indicator growing by 1.03 mln b/s by the previous year. This estimate was downgraded from last month’s forecast by 150,000 b/s.
Observed world oil inventories in April increased for the third month in a row – by 19.3 mln barrels, mainly due to the growth of onshore stocks – by 83.5 mln barrels. At the same time, oil inventories in tankers fell by 64.2 million barrels.
Oil prices are rising on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its monthly review of the oil market.
June Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $86.43 a barrel by 2:24 p.m. Friday, up $0.34 (0.39%) from the previous session’s closing price.
The price of WTI crude futures for May oil in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was up $0.31 (0.38%) to $82.41 a barrel by that time.
The IEA predicts a supply shortfall in the market of 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter. “Serious oil shortages in the second half of the year had been previously expected, but another reduction (of production by OPEC+ countries – IF-U) threatens to further squeeze supply and increase oil prices at a time when inflationary pressures are already hurting vulnerable consumers,” the agency said in a review.
In the second quarter, the deficit will be 400 thousand b / c, IEA believes. Previously, it expected demand to exceed supply only in the third quarter. The average deficit in 2023 is estimated at 800 thousand bpd.
OPEC, which published its monthly forecast the day before, still expects oil demand to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, to 101.89 million bpd – above the pre-survey level.
