Issue No. 1 – March 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
Since the beginning of March, the Ukrainian currency market has undergone significant changes in the dynamics of the dollar and euro. While the dollar was gradually strengthening in February, it began to decline in early March, followed by a gradual recovery after March 10, and the euro, after relative stability, began to grow.
Domestic Ukrainian factors had virtually no impact on this situation, which reflects global processes in the international currency market.
The main international factors that influenced the exchange rate dynamics:
Ø The start and further escalation of tariff wars launched by the administration of the new US president, which pose risks to US economic growth and accelerating inflation. This encouraged global investors to exit the dollar in search of more stable assets.
Ø The dollar is weakening on the global market due to softer statements by the US Federal Reserve. Investors have begun to expect a likely rate cut later this summer, which has weakened support for the dollar.
Ø The European Central Bank (ECB) had previously signaled possible stimulus to support the economy, which led to the euro’s weakness. However, since the beginning of March, EU macroeconomic indicators have improved, pushing the euro to strengthen.
Key internal factors affecting the Ukrainian FX market:
Ø Decreased demand for the dollar after a large-scale import of cash currency in February: according to the NBU, $1.316 billion in cash dollars and the equivalent of $450 million in euros were imported into Ukraine.
Ø The NBU’s interventions help to smooth out exchange rate volatility and maintain a controlled market situation.
Ø Increased budget expenditures in March traditionally create additional demand for foreign currency, which may affect the correction of the hryvnia exchange rate.
Exchange rate dynamics
Ø Since the end of February, the dollar has been accelerating its pronounced downward trend, slipping from the average of UAH 41.42-41.97/$ to UAH 41.1-41.65/$. This downward trend primarily reflects the situation on the global currency market and the lack of domestic drivers for the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate amid decreasing pressure on the national currency and a temporary decline in demand for the dollar. The appreciation observed since March 10 may be only a temporary correction, which generally reflects the temporary volatility of the US currency.
Ø In contrast, the euro hryvnia exchange rate moved in the opposite direction. Since the beginning of March, it has soared from 43.35-44.05 UAH/€ to 44.46-45.15 UAH/€, effectively returning to the level of mid-January this year after a long slump. This behavior of the euro is also entirely due to external factors.
Much more informative for analyzing the state of the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is the dynamics of spreads between buying and selling rates, which are an indicator of market liquidity and allow us to diagnose the level of uncertainty among its key operators.
Ø In March, we saw the average spread for the dollar narrow below February’s levels, from 50-60 kopeks to 40-50 kopeks, and in some cases to 30 kopeks. This indicates a balanced supply and demand for the US currency.
Ø For the euro, the average spread increased from 50-60 kopeks to 70-80 kopeks, as the sharp rise in the euro made the market less predictable, forcing banks and exchange offices to put in higher margins.
Thedeviation of the market rate from the NBU’s official exchange rate remained insignificant, confirming that the regulator’s currency policy is in line with the market balance. However, for the euro, this deviation increased in the second half of March, indicating that the market reacts more quickly to global factors, often outpacing the NBU’s official exchange rate adjustments.
USD exchange rate outlook
Ø In the short term, over the next 2-4 weeks, the dollar is likely to remain in the range of UAH 41.30-42.30 per dollar. The main factor that will influence the situation will be the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, as well as possible decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding the discount rate. If the NBU continues to actively intervene in the market through interventions, exchange rate fluctuations will be minimal.
Ø During the spring months, in the medium term (2-4 months), the dollar may move to the range of UAH 41.50-42.50 per dollar. In this period, the demand for foreign currency is expected to increase, in particular due to increased budget spending and import activity by businesses. An additional, though unlikely, risk is possible delays in international financial assistance, which could put temporary pressure on the hryvnia.
Ø In the longer term, i.e., over 6 months, the dollar has the potential for gradual appreciation due to the persistence of key factors of depreciation pressure on the hryvnia. If economic conditions remain unchanged, it may return to the range of UAH 42.50-44.00 per dollar, but we should remember the budget exchange rate target of UAH 45 per dollar, which leaves room for the exchange rate to be used for fiscal purposes to manage budget revenues. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s policy may affect global dollar liquidity: if the regulator begins to ease monetary policy, the US currency will remain relatively stable despite the hryvnia’s devaluation.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Ø In the coming weeks, the euro is likely to reach and stabilize in the range of UAH 44.80-45.70 per euro. After a sharp jump, the market may enter a correction phase where there will be no significant fluctuations.
Ø In the medium term, over the next 2-4 months, the dynamics of the euro will largely depend on the policy of the European Central Bank. If the ECB continues its measures to support economic growth, the euro may remain in the range of UAH 44.50-46.00 per euro. At the same time, the euro may weaken somewhat if there are prerequisites for a stronger dollar or if negative economic news from the EU.
Ø In the long run, the euro has the potential for relative stability or moderate growth. If the economic situation in Europe improves, the euro may remain in the range of UAH 45.00-46.50 per euro. However, as in the case of the dollar, macroeconomic factors and risks to the European economy may have a significant impact on the euro’s further dynamics.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
Diversifying your portfolio across currencies and assets is more important than ever: consider your individual needs first. Depending on where and how long before you plan to spend your foreign exchange in euros or dollars, this currency should be the dominant currency in your savings portfolio to avoid conversion losses. Other reserve currencies in your portfolio should act as a stabilizer: when one currency falls, the other rises, compensating for at least part of the exchange rate losses.
Regularly analyze and revise the structure of foreign currency savings: in the current turbulence and poor predictability in international currency markets, you should analyze the appropriateness of the current portfolio structure at least once a month and adjust it if necessary.
Currency speculation: In general, the current situation is quite favorable for cautious speculation, but it will require careful monitoring of key indicators and information signals to respond to changes in market trends in a timely manner. Experienced investors can take advantage of the current opportunities, while inexperienced investors should stick to conservative strategies focused on preserving their savings.
As for the hryvnia, we reiterate our recommendation to hold it only in the amount necessary to finance current expenses, service short-term financial obligations, and for unforeseen expenses in special life situations.
The basic recommendation for all currencies is to keep all savings as liquid as possible, avoiding long-term investments. This will ensure freedom of maneuver in the face of currency turbulence and poor predictability that will accompany us at least in the medium term.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
The FinTech company KYT Group, whose flagship activity is currency exchange, announced the launch of the investment division KYT Invest, the company’s press release said on Thursday.
“The creation of KYT Invest was a logical continuation of the group’s activities in providing clients with consultations on the development of customized individual investment strategies. The development of the investment direction reflects the large-scale transformation and scaling of the group’s business, including the expansion of the range of financial services, the launch of new digital products and services,” it said.
As noted by the company, the key mission of KYT Invest is to make investing transparent, profitable and accessible.
“The investment direction of KYT Invest will expand the range of financial services for the group’s clients and create unique opportunities to invest in reliable instruments for preserving savings, managing private capital and receiving investment income with a trusted partner,” the publication notes.
The company indicates that the investment division will offer clients modern, profitable solutions for managing capital and increasing savings, in combination with FinTech solutions. It is specified that the KYT Invest product portfolio, in addition to classic instruments, will include innovative solutions, including smart contracts based on blockchain technologies and tokenized investment assets.
“A wide national network of more than 90 representative offices of KYT Group in 29 major cities of Ukraine will allow a wide range of investors of various profiles to gain access to modern instruments for managing capital and increasing it,” the release emphasizes.
It is noted that the investment services and products of KYT Invest will be further integrated into the mobile application KYTApp, the release of which is planned for the near future. The company informs that the first official presentation of KYT Invest took place in London in early December.
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1035216.html
After raising the official hryvnia exchange rate by 4 kopecks on Thursday, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) strengthened it by another 5 kopecks on Friday to 41.6070 UAH/$1, according to the regulator’s website.
“The foreign exchange market of Ukraine is experiencing an increase in the currency deficit caused by high demand in both cash and non-cash segments. The National Bank of Ukraine stabilizes the market with interventions that are not able to fully satisfy the demand for currency, but at the same time achieve the goal of stabilizing the market, which prevents abrupt dynamics and allows to maintain a smooth devaluation trend,” analysts of KIT Group state in the review and forecast of the foreign exchange market.
According to them, the increase in demand for foreign currency in both segments of the foreign exchange market is typical for the beginning of the month and the end of the year.
The analysts also note that the spread between the buying and selling rates of the euro and the US dollar has increased in recent weeks.
“This indicates the desire of currency market operators to capitalize on the increased demand for cash currency among the population, and the widening of the difference between the purchase and sale rates allows them to compensate for their own risks amid a poorly predictable exchange rate situation,” they explain.
At the same time, KIT Group believes that statements by Ukraine’s international partners regarding further funding from frozen natural resources, infrastructure support and economic stimulus projects do not give rise to pessimistic exchange rate forecasts.
According to their expectations, in the short term, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain in the range of 41.7-42 UAH/$1, with a tendency to gravitate towards 42.5 UAH/$1. “Quotations close to 42 UAH/$1 were already recorded in early December, which is in line with our exchange rate expectations for the end of this year. At the same time, seasonal factors, such as increased demand for foreign currency at the end of the year, may cause a slight short-term surge to 42.5 UAH/$1,”KIT Group” forecasts.
However, at the same time, recent changes in tax policy may increase the tax burden on deposit income, which could stimulate additional demand for foreign currency and the flow of foreign currency savings from the banking system into cash, thereby putting pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
The NBU set the reference rate at 12:00 on Friday at 41.5778 UAH/$1, compared to 41.6915 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
The US dollar on the cash market on Friday rose by 4 kopecks to 41.84 UAH/$1 when buying, and by 5 kopecks to 41.90 UAH/$1 when selling.
Overall, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen by 9.5%, or UAH 3.60, at the official exchange rate, and by 13.8%, or UAH 5.03, since the National Bank switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023.
The average annual exchange rate is set at 40.7 UAH/$1 in the budget for 2024, and 42.1 UAH/$1 at the end of this year.
As reported, the official hryvnia exchange rate fell by 0.9%, or 37 kopecks, over the past month.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves in November increased by $3.344 billion, or 9.1%, and as of December 1, 2024, according to preliminary data from the central bank, amounted to $39.925 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) increased by $3.5 billion, or 15.6%, to $25 billion 939 million.
The NBU’s net sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week increased to $785.4 million, compared to $708.5 million a week earlier.
Source: https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1033645.html
Issue No. 1 – December 2024
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze the current conditions, key influencing factors, and possible scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
The Ukrainian foreign exchange market is experiencing a growing shortage of foreign currency, driven by high demand in both the cash and non-cash segments. The National Bank of Ukraine stabilizes the market with interventions that cannot fully satisfy the demand for foreign currency, but at the same time achieve the goal of stabilizing the market, which prevents abrupt dynamics and allows for a smooth devaluation trend.
Increased demand for foreign currency in both segments of the market is typical for the beginning of the month and the end of the year.
Statements and steps taken by Ukraine’s international partners to provide further funding from frozen Russian assets, infrastructure support, and economic stimulus projects do not give rise to pessimistic exchange rate forecasts.
However, changes in tax policy, in particular to increase the tax burden on deposit income, may become a new powerful driver of demand for foreign currency and pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate from the population, as well as the flow of foreign currency savings from the formal financial system into cash, while banks cannot offer attractive rates that would offset the risks of new steps of administrative intervention by the state in regulating foreign exchange transactions for the population.
A characteristic feature of recent weeks has been the widening of the spread between the buying and selling rates of the most popular currencies among Ukrainians, the euro and the dollar. This indicates that foreign exchange market operators are seeking to capitalize on the increased demand for cash currency among households, and the widening spread between the bid and ask rates allows foreign exchange market operators to compensate for their own risks amid an unpredictable exchange rate environment.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast
In the short term, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain in the range of UAH 41.7-42/$, with a tendency towards UAH 42.5/$. Quotations close to 42 UAH/$ were already recorded in early December, which is in line with our exchange rate expectations for the end of this year. At the same time, seasonal factors, such as increased demand for foreign currency at the end of the year, may cause a slight short-term surge to the level of 42.5 UAH/$.
Medium-term forecast
The dollar is likely to reach UAH 42.2-42.5/$ by the end of 2024, given the traditional increase in demand for foreign currency in December. Among the external factors, the main one is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which will affect the dollar’s position in the global market, and this will be reflected in the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate, which will still drift smoothly to the value of 45 UAH/$, which is the basis for the state budget for 2025.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast
The euro remains under pressure on the international market due to expectations of ECB rate cuts. In Ukraine, this was reflected in the stabilization of the hryvnia exchange rate against the euro at UAH 43.6-44.3/€. Given the absence of local drivers, the exchange rate will remain within these limits with a potential slight decline in the near future.
Medium-term outlook
Over the next few months, we expect the euro to gradually rise to UAH 47-48/€, driven by a possible easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. However, the euro’s strengthening will also largely depend on the success of the eurozone’s economic recovery and global trends. The dynamics of the euro against the hryvnia will largely reflect these trends in the Ukrainian market, as there are no internal influential fundamental drivers of the euro exchange rate in Ukraine, only situational ones.
Key factors affecting the foreign exchange market
Recommendations for businesses and investors
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and are not responsible for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KIT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KIT Group is one of the largest operators of this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KIT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
Photo: Kyt_group_dec
Source: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1033647.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after depreciating the official hryvnia exchange rate by 12 kopecks on Monday, lowered it by another 7 kopecks on Tuesday to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to the regulator’s website.
“Ukraine’s currency market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although the fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet give grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt changes in exchange rates,” KIT Group analysts state in their currency market forecast.
At the same time, they expect a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia in the future. In particular, according to KIT Group’s forecast, the official exchange rate of the national currency to the US dollar will remain in the range of 41-42 UAH/$1 by the end of November, provided that the current state of the macroeconomy and security situation remains unchanged.
By the end of this year, analysts predict the hryvnia will weaken to 43 UAH/$1, which, according to them, may be due to seasonal demand for foreign currency.
The National Bank set the reference exchange rate at 12:00 p.m. today at 41.4815 UAH/$1, compared to 41.4087 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
The US dollar on the cash market on Tuesday rose by 8 kopecks, both when buying and selling, to 41.68 UAH/$1 and 41.75 UAH/$1, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen by 9.2%, or UAH 3.50, at the official exchange rate, and by 13.5%, or UAH 4.93, since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023.
The average annual rate of 45 UAH/$1 included in the state budget for 2025 is considered realistic by KIT Group analysts, who note that it implies exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 44-46 UAH/$1.
Ukraine’s international reserves in October, according to preliminary estimates of the NBU, decreased by 6%, or $2.32 billion, to $36 billion 578 million, while net international reserves (NIR) decreased by $3.11 billion, or 12.2%, to $22 billion 437 million.
Issue No. 1 for November 2024
The global currency market was shaken by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, which created a wave of expectations and uncertainty.
The real balance of power will become clearer only after the first practical steps of the new administration, which will indicate the key vectors of the US economy, determine their global influence on allied countries and blocs, and show the policy of influencing the US global competitors outside the Western world.
Currently, there are no fundamental economic reasons for significant exchange rate corrections, and what we are seeing in the global context in the currency and cryptoasset markets is more like “fussing on deck waiting for the weather to change,” although there is no clear forecast or signs of change, everything is based on more or less probable assumptions, expectations, and faith.
Now is not the best time to formulate medium-term currency strategies. However, if you have developed speculative skills and a taste for risk, you can make money from speculation in a period of high uncertainty in the currency markets.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is experiencing record demand for foreign currency, which is also driven more by global processes and the far from optimistic expectations of households and businesses. The real need for foreign currency can only exist and grow in the shadow sector, where some business operations are moved in the face of economic and tax uncertainty, infrastructure and economic risks. However, the real needs for foreign currency for import-oriented sectors are within normal limits.
Thus, Ukraine’s FX market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet provide grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt exchange rate movements. The only certainty is that we will see further gradual devaluation of the hryvnia, at least in the current security and economic environment.
The combination of these factors is pushing citizens to transfer their savings into foreign currency instruments, and many are focused on cryptocurrencies.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
As we predicted earlier, the US dollar exchange rate remained relatively stable in November with minor fluctuations. The average buying rate fluctuated between 41.20 and 41.35 UAH/$, and the selling rate between 41.65 and 41.75 UAH/$. The official NBU exchange rate remained at UAH 41.20-41.35/$ amid no significant interventions by the regulator.
The spread between the bid and ask rates remained stable at UAH 0.40-0.50/$, reflecting the fragile economic equilibrium and the balance between supply and demand.
Outlook:
Euro exchange rate forecast
As expected, the euro continues to show a steady downward trend after reaching peak levels of 46.18-45.6 UAH/€ in October. In the second decade of November, the average euro exchange rate corrected from 45.25-44.67 UAH/€ to 44.65-44.1 UAH/€.
The downward spread between buying and selling euros remained relatively flat at UAH 0.55-0.65/€, indicating that FX market operators are trying to keep an additional premium on the increased demand for the euro, while the purchase of euros from households and businesses is closer to the official NBU rate, the unwillingness of FX market operators to take on currency risk in the event of a reverse “rebound” in the euro, which may be due to new signals from key players in the global economic system.
Forecast:
Future factors influencing the Ukrainian currency market
The key ones still dominate:
Negative:
Positives:
Recommendations on currency transactions
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KIT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. CIT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. CIT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
