The Ukrainian dairy industry has entered its deepest crisis in recent years due to purchase prices falling below cost, creating the risk of a 20% loss in industrial milk production by the end of 2026, said Olena Zhupinas, deputy director general of the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), at a round table of the parliamentary committee on agricultural and land policy.
According to the association’s data, in 2025-early 2026, purchase prices for raw milk fell by 23% and in February averaged 13.5 UAH/kg (excluding VAT), while direct operating costs exceeded 16 UAH/kg. Even highly efficient industrial farms with 1,000-1,200 cows have been accumulating more than UAH 1 million in losses every month for the fourth month in a row.
“The dairy industry is entering its deepest crisis in recent years. Without prompt decisions in 2026, we risk losing part of our production capacity, which will be extremely difficult to restore after the war. For producers, the decision on support before the start of the sowing season is a choice: to sow feed and keep the herd or to curtail production,” the AVM press service quoted Jupinas as saying.
To stabilize the situation, the AVM proposes introducing a special subsidy of UAH 8,000 per cow for industrial farms with 50 or more head of cattle. The potential volume of this program is estimated at EUR 62 million. Without such assistance, by the end of 2026, the country could lose 500-600 thousand tons of milk, which is almost 20% of industrial production.
The second initiative is to create fair market conditions by regulating unfair trade practices by chains. Today, the financial risks of retail are shifted to producers and processors, which directly affects the purchase price. Without legislative changes, it is impossible to stabilize the “farm-processing-trade” chain.
The association also emphasizes the need to stimulate demand through public procurement, which should focus on domestic producers. In particular, the launch of the “School Milk” program for 4.4 million schoolchildren will ensure guaranteed sales of 195,000 tons of milk per year, which is about 5% of the processing volume.
“The position of the UMA is not a request for preferences, but a response to the scale of the challenges. 2026 will be a turning point: either decisions will be made now, or the losses that can still be avoided today will cost the state much more tomorrow,” the industry association concluded.
According to the results for January 2026, dairy enterprises of all categories in Ukraine produced 421,200 tons of raw milk, which is 11.8% less than in December 2025 and 7% less than in January last year, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing preliminary data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association explained that the decline in production in January was caused by prolonged blackouts and the limited ability of processing enterprises to accept raw materials during power outages.
At the same time, the industrial sector recorded growth: agricultural enterprises produced 269.9 thousand tons of milk, which is 4% more than in January 2025. The share of enterprises in the overall production structure was 64%.
On the other hand, there was a significant decline in private households – to 151.3 thousand tons, which is 21.7% less than in the same period last year and 26.7% less than in December.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, the negative dynamics in the household sector are due to a further reduction in the number of cows and a shortage of electricity due to shelling, which makes the processing process more expensive. In total, milk production in Ukraine amounted to 6.8 million tons in 2025 (4% less than in 2024).
Despite the general challenges, industrial milk production increased in 13 regions in January 2026. The highest growth rates were recorded in Rivne (+26%), Lviv (+15%), Ivano-Frankivsk (+14%), and Ternopil (+12%) regions. In the Volyn region, volumes increased by 9%. Positive dynamics were also recorded in the Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Poltava regions.
The business association noted that farmers are forced to spend more money on their own electricity generation. Due to long blackouts, there were interruptions in the shipment of raw milk from dairy farms to milk processing enterprises.
“In the context of the crisis, dairy farms may revise their investment plans for 2026, as it is difficult to increase raw milk production during blackouts, and a significant recovery in demand for dairy products on the domestic market is unlikely in the short term,” the Milk Producers Association predicts.
Raw milk production in Ukraine decreased in 2025 amid falling purchase prices, increased production costs, shipping disruptions, as well as severe frosts and heating problems that led to a decline in cow productivity, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that in December 2025, farms of all categories produced 478,000 tons of raw milk, which is 29,000 tons less (-6%) than in November of the same year and 75,000 tons less (-14%) than in December 2024.
At the same time, milk production in Ukraine in 2025 amounted to 6.86 million tons, which is 374 thousand tons less (-5%) than in the previous year. In December 2025, the share of enterprises in raw milk production was 57%, and that of private farms was 43%.
In December 2025, enterprises produced 271,000 tons of raw milk, which is 6,000 tons more (+2.1%) compared to November, but 12,000 tons less (-4%) compared to December 2024.
Last year, commercial dairy farms produced 3.18 million tons of raw milk, which is 210,000 tons more (+7%) than the previous year.
According to the ABM, milk production in private households in December 2025 amounted to 206 thousand tons, which is 35 thousand tons less (-14%) than in November and 64 thousand tons less (-24%) than in December 2024. In January-December 2025, households produced 3.67 million tons of raw milk, which is 583 thousand tons less (-14%) than the year before last.
“Raw milk production volumes are declining in Ukraine, primarily due to the household sector, which is ceasing to play an important role in the dairy industry. It is likely that if private farms do not consolidate by 2030, their milk will no longer be sent for processing and will be used for their own consumption. To remain in the industry, PFFs must unite into cooperatives and form commercial milk batches or independently increase their cow herds and develop craft production of dairy products,” emphasized AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhiashvili.
He noted that the industrial sector is compensating for the decline in the share of private farms and demonstrating stability in raw milk production. However, in December, milk production in the industrial sector declined compared to the same period last year amid a decline in purchase prices for raw milk under pressure from the collapse of world prices for commodities, including butter.
“Low raw milk prices do not correspond to its cost at dairy farms, which have increased production costs due to energy supply problems, which worsened in January 2026, and the need to spend more money on diesel generators. Due to long blackouts, there were interruptions in the shipment of raw milk from dairy farms to milk processing plants. The plants report that they cannot accept milk and send it for processing when the power is off. The severe frosts this winter, combined with heating problems, have led to a decline in cow productivity,” the AVM said.
The association suggested that, in the context of the crisis, dairy farms may revise their investment plans for 2026, as it is difficult to increase raw milk production during blackouts, and a significant recovery in demand for dairy products on the domestic market is unlikely in the short term.
“It is likely that in 2026, the reduction in raw milk production will occur not only in the household sector, but also in the industrial sector. Due to unprofitability, certain farms with less than 400 head of cattle are likely to close. In this case, raw milk production in Ukraine may decline to 6.0-6.2 million tons. However, those dairy farms that are able to maintain their cow numbers in 2026 and invest in sustainability should benefit in the coming years,” the UAM concluded.
In 2025, Moldova was heavily dependent on imports of milk and dairy products, with Ukraine supplying more than two-thirds of the product to the local market, according to the Moldovan publication rupor.md, citing data from the republic’s Customs Service.
According to Moldovan customs, in January–November 2025, Moldova imported 26.7 thousand tons of milk and dairy products worth a total of $23.4 million. The largest volume of raw milk as a raw material came from Ukraine — 16.8 thousand tons (66.1% of total imports). Romania, Poland, and Belarus are also among the leaders in milk raw material supplies.
According to customs data, Moldova also imported finished dairy products, including sour cream and milk mixtures.
In the segment of full-fat sour cream (over 10%), Ukraine’s share was even higher — over 80% of imports. In addition, Ukraine led in the supply of milk and sour cream with added sweeteners, accounting for almost 68% of imports.
Ukraine significantly outperformed its competitors from Romania, Poland, and Belarus in the supply of dairy products.
“Moldova’s dependence on milk imports from Ukraine is due to close trade ties between the countries and geographical proximity, which significantly reduces logistics costs for importers,” Moldovan experts explained.
The availability of surplus raw milk and unsold exchange goods is putting pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine and worldwide. The situation on the market is likely to stabilize at the end of the third quarter of 2026 as the excess supply of dairy products disappears from the market, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra-grade milk as of December 20, 2025, was UAH 15.30/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.00 less than in the previous month, while the price of higher-grade milk was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT (-90 kopecks), and first grade milk was UAH 14.80/kg excluding VAT (-UAH 1.10). The weighted average price for the three grades was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.05 less than in the previous month.
“The decline in purchase prices in Ukraine continues under pressure from excess raw milk supplies. In November, Ukraine produced 35,000 tons more raw milk than last year. These volumes were supposed to be exported as finished products. However, the crisis continues in export markets, and the supply of dairy products exceeds demand,” said AVM analyst Georgy Kukhaleishvili.
According to his data, Ukrainians consume an average of 200 kg of milk per year. However, due to the reduction in the number of consumers in the country as a result of forced migration due to the war, there is a significant surplus of raw materials on the market.
According to the AVM, another decline in purchase prices is expected from January 1, 2026, due to the surplus of raw milk that will form at enterprises during the New Year holidays, when there is traditionally a lull in market activity. Despite the decline in the price of raw milk, the production of butter and dry collected milk remains unprofitable.
Milk is becoming cheaper not only in Ukraine but also in other dairy regions, including the US and European countries.
“Stabilization in both the market for finished dairy products and raw milk is expected in the second half of 2026,” the AVM predicts.
The dairy industry, which is one of the key sectors of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, has retained its production base and is gradually recovering despite the full-scale war, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky said at the XVII All-Ukrainian Conference “Dairy Business-2025” in Kyiv on Thursday.
The deputy minister noted that in January-October 2025, Ukraine produced almost 5.9 million tons of milk.
“An important trend is the growing role of agricultural enterprises: they already account for 45% of production, and their production volumes have increased by 7.6%, despite the overall reduction in livestock numbers. Quality is also improving: more than 55% of milk sent for processing meets the European ‘extra’ standard,” he wrote on Facebook.
Vysotsky emphasized that the industry is also actively working in foreign markets. In the first 10 months of 2025, exports of dairy products grew by almost 9%. Sixty-four Ukrainian companies have permission to export dairy products to the EU, 40 of which are milk processing plants.
“Despite the challenges, we are maintaining the stability of current indicators and forming a resource for further growth – this is our realistic and strategic focus. The next step is investment, modernization, and a clear move towards integration with the European market,” the deputy minister concluded.
