Prices for raw milk in Ukraine declined in early January due to a decrease in demand from dairy processing companies during the New Year holidays, the Association of Milk Producers (AMP) reported.
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra milk as of January 6 was 19.10 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 0.60 UAH less than a month earlier, while the price of premium milk was 18.35 UAH/kg excluding VAT (-0.35 UAH), and the price of first grade remained unchanged at 17.65 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The weighted average price of the three milk grades was fixed at 18.37 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 0.32 UAH less than in December.
“The decline in raw milk prices in Ukraine at the beginning of the year led to a drop in butter prices. A drop in consumer activity in the market is also traditionally observed during the New Year holidays. In addition, Ukrainian companies reduced the volume of butter exports in December due to lower prices for the product on foreign markets. (…) The domestic market has seen a surplus of raw milk, and maximum prices for extra and premium milk have gone down due to reduced demand from dairy processing companies,” explained AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleishvili.
The AMP reported that Ukraine is also experiencing a decline in butter prices, coupled with a halt in the growth of prices for fermented dairy products due to limited purchasing power of the population and reduced demand for dairy products in the domestic market. Due to high prices for domestic dairy products, imports of processed dairy products, including cheese, increased in December.
“A significant reduction in purchase prices in Ukraine is unlikely due to the increase in the cost of milk production due to rising feed costs and the need to meet EU environmental requirements,” the industry association said.
It is likely that in 2025 the global dairy market will move to a new price corridor – from $40 to $50 per 100 kg of raw milk. In 2024, the average price of raw milk in Ukraine was $42.45 per 100 kg, which is 20% higher than in 2023. The price of raw milk in Ukraine grew throughout 2024, unlike in the EU, the US and New Zealand. In 2025, the average milk price in Ukraine is likely to increase to $45-46 per 100 kg of raw milk. In the absence of force majeure, a certain decrease in purchase prices is likely in late April – early May this year as a result of a seasonal increase in milk production in households, the AMP predicts.
In 2024, commercial dairy farms will increase milk supplies for food processing by 6% compared to last year, said Anna Lavreniou, CEO of the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), at the international conference “Opportunities and Challenges of European Integration of Livestock in Moldova and Ukraine” at the EuroTier-2024 exhibition in Germany.
“The war brought terrible losses. Today, more than 100 dairy farms in Ukraine have been either destroyed or destroyed due to Russia’s terror tactics. Restoration of these facilities is critical to ensure stable milk production. At the same time, despite the active phase of the war, industrial dairy farms continue to invest in productivity, compliance with European standards, and safety,” she said.
Lavreniuk emphasized that in 2024, Ukrainian dairy farms will increase milk supplies for food processing by 6%.
In addition, the head of the industry association noted the accelerated pace of innovation in practice, which was catalyzed by the war.
“Our Ukrainian producers are investing in biogas plants at a frantic pace to provide themselves and their communities with electricity. This is a new challenge that requires technical expertise and financial support,” noted Lavreniuk.
According to her, Ukraine is currently experiencing not a staff shortage, but a staff famine.
“The huge turnover of personnel in the agricultural sector requires express training and professional development courses and their adaptation to European requirements. This is the number one challenge, because we don’t have time,” stated the head of the AUFM.
Lavreniuk also asked her European colleagues not to get tired of providing financial assistance to Ukrainian farmers who need support for recovery and development, which involves investing in new technologies and modernizing production processes.
The increase in raw milk prices in the second half of November was due to the growing interest of European traders in domestically produced butter, but the decline in demand for dairy products in the domestic market may stabilize prices in the second half of December, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to analysts, as of November 20, the average purchase price of extra milk increased by 1 UAH/kg to 19.40 UAH/kg excluding VAT, the price of premium milk increased by 1.20 UAH/kg to 18.65 UAH/kg excluding VAT, and the price of first-class milk increased by 1 UAH/kg to 17.7 UAH/kg.
Accordingly, the weighted average price of the three varieties amounted to 18.58 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 1.07 UAH more than a month earlier.
AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleishvili noted that another increase in raw milk prices in Ukraine was caused by the increased demand for butter in foreign markets in November.
“As the price of New Zealand butter rose to $7 thousand/ton, European traders started to turn to Ukrainian producers with a desire to buy butter at more attractive prices. After a slight decline in demand for exchange-traded products at the beginning of the month, there is now an increase in interest in butter and cheese on foreign markets,” the expert explained.
At the same time, the AMP points to a decrease in demand for raw milk from Ukrainian dairy processing enterprises in November compared to September-October. At the same time, the growth rate of purchase prices is gradually slowing down due to a decrease in consumer demand for dairy products in the domestic market.
“Ukrainian consumers with below-average incomes have started to deny themselves dairy products due to rising prices not only for dairy products but also for other food products. Consumption of spreads is growing in the country as a cheaper alternative to butter,” the industry association stated.
The growth of raw milk prices is constrained by high prices for finished products and the difficulty of selling them to consumers in the domestic market. Under such conditions, a slight increase in purchase prices is possible in early December with the prospect of further stabilization in the second half of the month, the AMP predicts.
The price of milk in Ukraine has risen by UAH 2, or 15%, since the beginning of July and will continue to rise in September, according to Infagro, an industry analytical agency.
“This scale of price increase is unprecedented for the Ukrainian raw materials market. And this is not the limit of price growth. In September, analysts predict a further increase in milk prices,” the analysts said.
They cited market changes, shortages of raw materials and rising costs due to limited energy supply as the reasons for the significant rise in the price of milk and dairy products.
Experts also noted that in the second half of August, hot weather set in again, which did not allow cattle to recover from the abnormal July heat. Cow productivity did not increase. The seasonal decline in milk production also contributed to the problem. At the same time, demand for raw materials increased, which led to a further significant rise in milk prices. In the last week of August, the problem of energy supply became more acute due to another hostile shelling.
In addition, in July, both the number of cows and milk production decreased significantly. Analysts cited data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, according to which, as of August 1, 2024, 1 million 255.4 thousand cows were kept in the private and industrial sectors of Ukraine, which is 7% less than a year ago. In agricultural enterprises, the number of cows decreased by 2%, to 380 thousand. The statistics for August are not better, according to the analytical review.
“Given the high cost of raw materials and the influence of other factors, dairy products are becoming more expensive. And if prices for finished dairy products are growing slowly, the cost of exchange goods has increased quite quickly and significantly,” Infagro summarized.
Ukraine increased export of condensed milk and cream fourfold – up to 6.747 thousand tons in January-March 2023. Ukraine exported condensed milk and cream totaling $17.680 million in January-March 2023 (+83.8% for the same period). Imports of this group of products decreased by 3.2 times, to 220 tons, in monetary terms, fell by 4.8 times – to $ 940 thousand.
Most exports of condensed milk and cream went to Poland (21.74% of deliveries in monetary terms), Israel (10.16%) and Bangladesh (9.08%), while imports – from Poland (55.64%), Czech Republic (28.62%) and Germany (13.72%).
Russian missile strikes on Ukraine have left the country’s dairy industry without electricity, resulting in the shutdown of enterprises and disrupted mechanism of product sales, so spot prices for milk in this period can be considered tentative.
As dairy industry analyst Maxim Fasteev said in his Telegram channel, the massive rocket attacks on Ukraine once again show how important the factor of generators availability at the enterprises is now, and this factor will be relevant in the coming months as well.
“Some Ukrainian plants, as well as the population, were left without electricity for almost a day, milk trucks, in some cases, are still waiting for unloading of raw milk (it is good that at least the air temperature helps to preserve the quality of the goods). There is no possibility to resell raw milk, because all processors are in the same conditions. This is all the consequences of another wave of missile strikes of the terrorist country (already officially) on the Ukrainian civil infrastructure,” the expert wrote.
According to his data, milk processing companies continue to meet their obligations on the levels of procurement prices, but in the secondary market is not an issue of value now, because demand for the product is completely absent. Thus, the current spot price of raw milk in Ukraine can be considered conditional.
“Ukrainian exchange commodity prices in the domestic market remain under pressure from lower export (European) quotes, but there are no changes in the skimmed milk powder (SOM)/oil equivalent compared to last week due to the moderate strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro,” the analyst specified in the report.
In addition, last week the spot price of Ukrainian raw milk compared to the EU products was by 38% lower, while during the previous week this indicator was 34%, and the difference of milk equivalents (EM) of REM / butter was 21% (in the previous week -23%).
The expert reminded that the indicator of milk equivalent (EM) – recalculation of the current (spot) cost of dairy commodities in the equivalent of a basic kilogram of raw milk, taking into account the costs and standards of production of these goods.
