Raw milk production in Ukraine decreased in 2025 amid falling purchase prices, increased production costs, shipping disruptions, as well as severe frosts and heating problems that led to a decline in cow productivity, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that in December 2025, farms of all categories produced 478,000 tons of raw milk, which is 29,000 tons less (-6%) than in November of the same year and 75,000 tons less (-14%) than in December 2024.
At the same time, milk production in Ukraine in 2025 amounted to 6.86 million tons, which is 374 thousand tons less (-5%) than in the previous year. In December 2025, the share of enterprises in raw milk production was 57%, and that of private farms was 43%.
In December 2025, enterprises produced 271,000 tons of raw milk, which is 6,000 tons more (+2.1%) compared to November, but 12,000 tons less (-4%) compared to December 2024.
Last year, commercial dairy farms produced 3.18 million tons of raw milk, which is 210,000 tons more (+7%) than the previous year.
According to the ABM, milk production in private households in December 2025 amounted to 206 thousand tons, which is 35 thousand tons less (-14%) than in November and 64 thousand tons less (-24%) than in December 2024. In January-December 2025, households produced 3.67 million tons of raw milk, which is 583 thousand tons less (-14%) than the year before last.
“Raw milk production volumes are declining in Ukraine, primarily due to the household sector, which is ceasing to play an important role in the dairy industry. It is likely that if private farms do not consolidate by 2030, their milk will no longer be sent for processing and will be used for their own consumption. To remain in the industry, PFFs must unite into cooperatives and form commercial milk batches or independently increase their cow herds and develop craft production of dairy products,” emphasized AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhiashvili.
He noted that the industrial sector is compensating for the decline in the share of private farms and demonstrating stability in raw milk production. However, in December, milk production in the industrial sector declined compared to the same period last year amid a decline in purchase prices for raw milk under pressure from the collapse of world prices for commodities, including butter.
“Low raw milk prices do not correspond to its cost at dairy farms, which have increased production costs due to energy supply problems, which worsened in January 2026, and the need to spend more money on diesel generators. Due to long blackouts, there were interruptions in the shipment of raw milk from dairy farms to milk processing plants. The plants report that they cannot accept milk and send it for processing when the power is off. The severe frosts this winter, combined with heating problems, have led to a decline in cow productivity,” the AVM said.
The association suggested that, in the context of the crisis, dairy farms may revise their investment plans for 2026, as it is difficult to increase raw milk production during blackouts, and a significant recovery in demand for dairy products on the domestic market is unlikely in the short term.
“It is likely that in 2026, the reduction in raw milk production will occur not only in the household sector, but also in the industrial sector. Due to unprofitability, certain farms with less than 400 head of cattle are likely to close. In this case, raw milk production in Ukraine may decline to 6.0-6.2 million tons. However, those dairy farms that are able to maintain their cow numbers in 2026 and invest in sustainability should benefit in the coming years,” the UAM concluded.
In 2025, Moldova was heavily dependent on imports of milk and dairy products, with Ukraine supplying more than two-thirds of the product to the local market, according to the Moldovan publication rupor.md, citing data from the republic’s Customs Service.
According to Moldovan customs, in January–November 2025, Moldova imported 26.7 thousand tons of milk and dairy products worth a total of $23.4 million. The largest volume of raw milk as a raw material came from Ukraine — 16.8 thousand tons (66.1% of total imports). Romania, Poland, and Belarus are also among the leaders in milk raw material supplies.
According to customs data, Moldova also imported finished dairy products, including sour cream and milk mixtures.
In the segment of full-fat sour cream (over 10%), Ukraine’s share was even higher — over 80% of imports. In addition, Ukraine led in the supply of milk and sour cream with added sweeteners, accounting for almost 68% of imports.
Ukraine significantly outperformed its competitors from Romania, Poland, and Belarus in the supply of dairy products.
“Moldova’s dependence on milk imports from Ukraine is due to close trade ties between the countries and geographical proximity, which significantly reduces logistics costs for importers,” Moldovan experts explained.
The availability of surplus raw milk and unsold exchange goods is putting pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine and worldwide. The situation on the market is likely to stabilize at the end of the third quarter of 2026 as the excess supply of dairy products disappears from the market, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra-grade milk as of December 20, 2025, was UAH 15.30/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.00 less than in the previous month, while the price of higher-grade milk was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT (-90 kopecks), and first grade milk was UAH 14.80/kg excluding VAT (-UAH 1.10). The weighted average price for the three grades was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.05 less than in the previous month.
“The decline in purchase prices in Ukraine continues under pressure from excess raw milk supplies. In November, Ukraine produced 35,000 tons more raw milk than last year. These volumes were supposed to be exported as finished products. However, the crisis continues in export markets, and the supply of dairy products exceeds demand,” said AVM analyst Georgy Kukhaleishvili.
According to his data, Ukrainians consume an average of 200 kg of milk per year. However, due to the reduction in the number of consumers in the country as a result of forced migration due to the war, there is a significant surplus of raw materials on the market.
According to the AVM, another decline in purchase prices is expected from January 1, 2026, due to the surplus of raw milk that will form at enterprises during the New Year holidays, when there is traditionally a lull in market activity. Despite the decline in the price of raw milk, the production of butter and dry collected milk remains unprofitable.
Milk is becoming cheaper not only in Ukraine but also in other dairy regions, including the US and European countries.
“Stabilization in both the market for finished dairy products and raw milk is expected in the second half of 2026,” the AVM predicts.
The dairy industry, which is one of the key sectors of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, has retained its production base and is gradually recovering despite the full-scale war, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky said at the XVII All-Ukrainian Conference “Dairy Business-2025” in Kyiv on Thursday.
The deputy minister noted that in January-October 2025, Ukraine produced almost 5.9 million tons of milk.
“An important trend is the growing role of agricultural enterprises: they already account for 45% of production, and their production volumes have increased by 7.6%, despite the overall reduction in livestock numbers. Quality is also improving: more than 55% of milk sent for processing meets the European ‘extra’ standard,” he wrote on Facebook.
Vysotsky emphasized that the industry is also actively working in foreign markets. In the first 10 months of 2025, exports of dairy products grew by almost 9%. Sixty-four Ukrainian companies have permission to export dairy products to the EU, 40 of which are milk processing plants.
“Despite the challenges, we are maintaining the stability of current indicators and forming a resource for further growth – this is our realistic and strategic focus. The next step is investment, modernization, and a clear move towards integration with the European market,” the deputy minister concluded.
Industrial dairy farming in Ukraine continued to recover in 2025, with the number of cows on farms and individual enterprises increasing by 2.3% and raw milk production increasing by 7.6% over 10 months, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
“This year, dairy farms will produce 0.2 million tons of milk more than in 2024, and milk supplies for processing will exceed 3.6 million tons (compared to 3.2 million tons last year). These results were made possible by favorable prices in 2023-2024, which stimulated active investment in the construction and expansion of farms,” the business association noted.
The SMPU noted that the situation worsened in the fall due to a sharp drop in world prices: butter in the EU fell in price by more than 30%, cheese by almost a quarter, and the price of dry milk fell significantly. This led to a decline in purchase prices for raw milk worldwide: FrieslandCampina has lowered them by almost 25% since August; prices have fallen in the US, New Zealand, and Mercosur countries. Since November, the decline has also significantly affected Ukraine, and it will continue in winter.
Globally, the low cost of raw materials could lead to bankruptcies among small farms, especially in the EU. Ukraine has a certain advantage in this situation, as it follows the “American model” with large dairy farms (averaging 300+ cows), modern technologies, its own feed base, and lower credit burdens.
“After the end of the price crisis, which is estimated to last until spring 2026, the global supply of milk will decline and prices will begin to recover. This will create new opportunities for the entire Ukrainian dairy sector, both milk suppliers and processors,” emphasized the association of dairy producers.
The SMPU called on milk suppliers to work together to develop long-term contracts.
According to the 7SDA forecast, total milk production in Ukraine will decline even further in 2026 due to a decrease in the number of cows, problems with industrial production related to the war, and inefficient household production. This forecast was made by analysts of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Milk production in Ukraine in 2026 is estimated at 6.8 million tons, which is 4% less than this year (7.1 million tons).
At the same time, consumption of dairy products in the country is expected to grow slightly next year, while the growth of Ukrainians’ incomes is offset by the outflow of population.
USDA forecast for production and trade of certain types of products
Cheese
production: 139 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons)
exports: 20 thousand tons (+4 thousand tons)
imports: 45 thousand tons (+2 thousand tons)
Butter
production: 73 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
exports: 14 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
The growth was driven by expected high demand on international markets and good production profitability.
Skimmed milk powder
production: 33 thousand tons (+1 thousand tons)
exports: 24 thsd tonnes (+1 thsd tonnes).
