Oil prices rose on Monday as traders became more optimistic about the demand outlook amid news of the lifting of quarantine restrictions in China’s Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.
Chengdu, home to 21 million people, has become the largest city in China after Shanghai, where a strict lockdown was introduced to curb the spread of COVID-19. From Monday, major quarantine restrictions are lifted in Chengdu.
“The main reason for the fluctuation in oil prices is the change in demand expectations,” said Vishnu Varatan, an analyst at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore, quoted by Bloomberg. “Easing quarantine restrictions in China is an important factor for the market. We are talking about pent-up demand here.” , and that explains the immediate market reaction.”
The price of November futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:10 am CST on Monday is $91.9 per barrel, which is $0.55 (0.6%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Friday, these contracts rose by $0.51 (0.6%) to $91.35 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.37 (0.43%), to $85.48 per barrel. By the close of the market on Friday, the value of these contracts increased by $0.01 to $85.11 per barrel.
As a result of the past week, Brent fell by 1.6%, WTI – by 1.9%.
The focus of traders this week – the meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the Bank of England. Fears related to the fact that the rapid tightening of monetary policy by the world’s central banks will lead to a recession in the global economy and a drop in oil demand are one of the key factors pushing down the oil market in recent months. Oil prices are likely to end the third quarter with a decline, which will be noted for the first time in two years, Bloomberg notes.
Oil prices rise on Monday ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, traders are assessing the possibility of cutting production after recent statements by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman about the possibility of such a move.
Most experts still believe that OPEC + will not reduce the oil production plan for October, Bloomberg notes. JPMorgan analysts explain this opinion by the fact that the summer surplus of raw materials in the world market can quickly turn into a deficit.
The price of November futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:15 pm on Monday is $95.06 per barrel, which is $2.04 (2.19) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Friday, these contracts rose by $0.66 (0.7%) to $93.02 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $88.66 per barrel by this time, which is $1.79 (2.06%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market on Friday, the value of these contracts increased by $0.26 (0.3%) to $86.87 per barrel.
As a result of the past week, Brent fell by 6.1%, WTI – by 4.6%.
In Europe, the energy crisis is intensifying against the background of the suspension of Russian gas supplies via the Nord Stream gas pipeline. On Friday evening, Gazprom reported that the maintenance of the only working turbine of the Nord Stream revealed “gross violations” and the gas pipeline would not work without their elimination.
Shortly before this, the G7 countries approved a plan to introduce a price ceiling for oil exported by Russia. To implement this plan, the G7 countries intend, in particular, to ban insurance of tankers with Russian oil if it is sold at a price above a certain limit.
“We believe that Gazprom’s decision to extend the shutdown of Nord Stream supplies from the originally announced three days indefinitely is inextricably linked to the G7’s adoption of the price cap plan,” said James Whistler, managing director of Vanir Global Markets Pte. Bloomberg.
Although the G7 countries are striving to maintain the supply of Russian energy resources to the world market, while reducing Russia’s income, “in reality, everything happens the other way around,” the expert says.
Oil prices went from falling to rising during trading on Monday due to renewed concerns about a lack of supply in the global market and supply disruptions.
September futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose by $1.1 (1.07%) to $104.3 per barrel by 13:52 Moscow time.
Quotes of futures for WTI for September in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time increased by $1.14 (1.2%) – up to $95.84 per barrel.
Last Friday, Brent fell 0.6%, WTI – 1.7%.
Quotes support traders’ fears about the reduction in Russian oil exports due to Western sanctions, writes CNBC.
In addition, the market’s attention this week is drawn to the meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as a result of which the US Central Bank may again significantly increase the base interest rate. A serious tightening of monetary policy by the Fed, according to many experts, could lead to a recession in the US economy.
