Benchmark oil prices continue to decline on Wednesday morning after falling the day before.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:10 a.m. is $93.51 per barrel, which is 83 cents (0.88%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Tuesday, these contracts fell by 9 cents (0.1%) to $94.34 per barrel.
Quotes for October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by 8:04 a.m. fell by 82 cents (0.9%) to $90.38 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by 28 cents (0.3%) to $91.2 per barrel. October contracts for WTI will expire at the close of the market on Wednesday. Futures for November, which are more actively traded, are losing 74 cents (0.82%) to $89.74 per barrel.
By Tuesday, both brands had been rising in price for three consecutive sessions.
DTN Senior Market Analyst Troy Vincent believes that the main threat to the continuation of the oil rally is a change in fundamentals.
“At current prices, lower demand for imported crude from China and rising exports of its refined products will certainly help to curb this rally in the short term,” Vincent told MarketWatch. – “If that happens – and especially if demand elsewhere begins to weaken – Saudi Arabia could quickly change its mind about how far it is willing to go with voluntary production cuts.
Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve Board, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 p.m. Wall Street experts are almost certain that the US regulator will leave the interest rate at 5.25-5.5% per annum following this meeting.
Benchmark oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday after hitting new annual highs the day before on fears of a fuel shortage in the global market.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. is $95.03 per barrel, which is 60 cents (0.64%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts rose by $0.5 (0.5%) to $94.43 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $1.01 (1.1%) to $92.49 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $0.71 (0.8%) to $91.48 per barrel.
The day before, Brent had updated its record from November 11 last year, and WTI – from November 7.
“Oil is maintaining its upward momentum thanks to some signs of a Chinese economic recovery,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade. In particular, he pointed to the improvement in industrial production and consumer spending last month, as well as the growth of retail sales by 4.6% in August in annual terms.
“WTI is trying to gain a foothold above $90 per barrel,” he added.
“The current bullish trend is likely to be driven by non-OPEC production, especially shale oil and gas production in the US, in response to rising prices,” said Robbie Fraser of Schneider Electric. – “We are seeing the first signs of this dynamic, but it needs to be stronger and more consistent to have an impact on the market.
Oil prices continue to rise on Monday after a steady rise last week.
Traders’ attention is focused on the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary (Canada), where Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman will be one of the key speakers.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:10 a.m. is $94.47 per barrel, which is $0.54 (0.57%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts increased by $0.23 (0.3%) to $93.93 per barrel.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.54 (0.57%) to $94.47 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the price of these contracts rose by $0.61 (0.7%) to $90.77 per barrel, the highest since November 7.
Last week, the price of Brent increased by 3.6%, and WTI by 3.7%.
Since the beginning of this year, Brent has risen by 10%. Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its voluntary 1 million bpd oil production cut by the end of 2023 has raised concerns about a supply shortage in the market, while demand prospects appear increasingly favorable as the likelihood of a US recession diminishes.
“Traders’ focus will shift to the Federal Reserve meeting this week, but the problem of oil supply shortages and the growing inventory drawdown is supporting bullish sentiment in the market,” said Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts the average oil price to reach $80 per barrel in 2023, according to its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Next year, it is expected to drop to $75 per barrel, and in 2025 – to $70 per barrel.
According to the agency’s analysts, the Japanese yen to the US dollar exchange rate will be around 145 yen/$1 at the end of this year, 135 yen at the end of 2024, and 125 yen at the end of 2025.
The single currency exchange rate in the next three years will be EUR 0.92/USD 1.
The pound sterling is expected to reach $1.25 in 2023-2024 and $1.2 in 2025.
The forecast for the Chinese currency at the end of this year is 7.2 yuan/$1, and for the next two years – 7.3 yuan/$1.
Benchmark crude oil prices continue to climb on Thursday afternoon amid a weaker US dollar.
November Brent crude futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 14:29 Q2 are trading at $93 per barrel, up $1.12 (1.22%) from the previous session’s close.
WTI crude futures for October delivery rose $1.14 (1.29%) to $89.66 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The expected increase in global oil demand by 1.5 million bpd in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year will outstrip supply by 1.24 million bpd, according to a report published the day before by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA estimates that the balance of the global oil market turned into a deficit in the third quarter as more supply cuts coincided with record high demand.
Meanwhile, the DXY index, which shows the value of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies, is down 0.03%, boosting the attractiveness of commodities quoted in the U.S. currency.
Oil prices of benchmark grades remain in the plus on Wednesday afternoon after the release of the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) ahead of the publication of official data on oil inventories in the United States. Quotes for November Brent crude oil futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 14:47 Q4 are trading at $92.54 per barrel, up $0.48 (0.52%) from the previous session’s close.
WTI crude oil futures for October on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.48 (0.54%) to $89.32 per barrel by the indicated time.
The expected growth in global oil demand by 1.5 million bpd in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year will outstrip supply by 1.24 million bpd, according to the IEA report.
The agency estimates that the world oil market balance turned into a deficit in the third quarter as more active supply cuts coincided with record high demand.
Thus, the IEA estimates a deficit of 1.5 million b/d in July and 1.7 million b/d in August, the highest since 2021, when a record OPEC+ supply cut was implemented to reduce the surplus accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the first quarter of 2023, the IEA estimated an oil market surplus of 1.5 million bpd in the first quarter and 80,000 bpd in the second quarter.
The U.S. Department of Energy at 17:30 Wednesday will publish a weekly report on commercial stocks of oil, gasoline and distillates in the country. The data of the American Petroleum Institute (API) released the day before showed an increase in oil reserves by 1.174 million barrels at the end of the week ended September 8.
