Oil prices are rising on Monday morning as traders assess OPEC+’s decision and Washington’s new statements on sanctions against Russia amid Russia’s continued full-scale military aggression against Ukraine.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.83 (1.27%) to $66.33 per barrel as of 7:15 a.m. On Friday, the contract fell by $1.49 (2.22%) to $65.50 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.77 (1.24%) to $62.64 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts fell by $1.61 (2.54%) to $61.87 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent and WTI futures fell in price by more than 3% on fears of an oversupply in the market if OPEC+ countries increase production.
Ministers from eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary oil production cuts approved an increase in production by 137,000 bpd in October at a meeting on September 7. The decision was made in view of the stable outlook for the global economy and favorable market conditions, reflected in low oil inventories, according to a statement from the alliance.
This will be the first tranche of a partial return to the market of voluntary restrictions of 1.65 million bpd, which were to remain in effect until the end of 2026. Now, the plan is to get rid of them by August.
Meanwhile, the production increase agreed upon over the weekend turned out to be less significant than previous ones.
“The moderate increase in OPEC+ production has brought relief to the market,” wrote Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa, adding that the increase in production had already been factored into prices, and now there is a technical rebound.
“Expectations of a supply reduction due to possible new US sanctions against Russia are also providing support,” the expert noted.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was ready to impose a second phase of restrictive measures against Russia. Trump considers the additional tariffs imposed on India to be the first phase of anti-Russian measures. Washington justified these measures by saying that Delhi buys oil from Russia.
Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR has begun developing an oil field in Uzbekistan. This was announced by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on August 22 at a trilateral meeting with the President of Uzbekistan and the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan in Turkmenbashi.
“We have traditional energy cooperation with Turkmenistan. We have already entered this field with Uzbekistan. Our state oil company SOCAR has already begun developing an oil field in Uzbekistan, and the contract has already been signed,“ Aliyev said.
According to him, Azerbaijan expects to receive ”good news” about the results of the work within the next year or two. “We are all eagerly awaiting news about the discovery of a large oil field in Uzbekistan,” he said.
On July 24, Uzbekistan and the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR signed a production sharing agreement (PSA) for the Ustyurt Plateau.
Investments in the project are estimated at $2 billion. Over the next five years, SOCAR, which is the project operator, will conduct 3D seismic surveys covering an area of at least 1,000 square kilometers and drill at least one exploration well. If a commercial field is discovered, the parties will proceed with its development. Reserves are estimated at up to 100 million tons of oil and 35 billion cubic meters of gas.
China increased oil production by 1.3% in January-July compared to the same period last year, to 126.6 million tons, according to the State Statistical Office.
In July alone, production rose by 1.2% to 18.12 million tons.
Oil refining for the seven months totaled 424.68 million tons, up 2.6% from the same period in 2024. In July alone, it rose 8.9% to 63.06 million tons.
Natural gas production in the country in January-July increased by 6% and reached 152.5 billion cubic meters, according to the GSU report. Last month, production rose by 7.4% to 21.6 billion cubic meters.
The US has postponed sanctions against Serbian oil company NIS for the last time: a key company could be at risk
The United States has postponed for the fifth and final time the imposition of sanctions against Serbian oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), which is controlled by Russia’s Gazprom. According to Reuters, the new exemption from the sanctions list has been extended until the end of August. No further extension is planned after that.
Serbian Energy Minister Dubravka Čedović Handanović said that Belgrade wants to keep oil supplies stable and called “the exclusion of NIS from OFAC sanctions a priority.” She said that dialogue between the US and Russia remains an important condition for this.
NIS is a strategically important company for the Serbian economy. It operates the country’s only oil refinery in Pančevo (near Belgrade), as well as the largest network of gas stations and logistics infrastructure in the fuel sector.
According to the ownership structure:
• 44.9% of NIS shares are owned by Gazprom Neft (Russia),
• 11.3% by Gazprom,
• 29.9% by the Serbian government,
• the rest by minority investors.
It was Russian control over the majority of shares that led to NIS being sanctioned by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Initially, the company was to be completely blocked in January 2025, but since then it has received four temporary licenses to continue operations.
In July 2025, NIS applied for a temporary license for the fifth time and received it for one month, until the end of August. During this period, Gazprom Neft was again reminded of the requirement to withdraw from the Serbian company’s shareholders.
Analysts note that if the sanctions are imposed in full, this could destabilize the fuel market in Serbia, create logistical disruptions, and cause oil prices to rise.
An alternative could be a transfer of control from Russian shareholders to European or Middle Eastern investors, but negotiations on this issue have not yet been officially confirmed.
NIS is a leader in the Serbian petroleum products market and is actively developing its operations in Romania, Bulgaria, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The company is also involved in oil and gas exploration and production, lubricant manufacturing, and power generation.
Source: https://t.me/relocationrs/1228
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has published a long-term forecast for the period until 2050, according to which oil and natural gas will remain the main sources of energy, occupying more than half of the global energy balance. This confirms the importance of hydrocarbons in the global economy and the strategic nature of energy policy.
Oil and gas demand forecast
The key drivers are:
Contradictions with other forecasts
This outlook indicates that oil and gas will retain its prominent position for at least the next 25 years. And while renewable energy is rapidly gaining momentum, the transition away from the traditional energy system must be smooth and gradual, taking into account real economic and social factors.
The introduction of quotas on Ukrainian oil imports by the European Union in mid-June led to an increase in domestic prices for the product, industry analytical agency Infagro reported on Wednesday.
“In the first two weeks of the quotas, Ukrainian suppliers have already used about 25% of the allocated volume, and demand from European buyers remains high due to the price difference,” analysts said.
They noted that dumping in the trade of Ukrainian butter is causing discontent among Polish producers, which could negatively affect negotiations on further expansion of trade privileges for Ukraine. The European Commission is already taking these signals into account, the report said.
According to experts, preliminary estimates show that despite a pause in exports at the beginning of the month, significantly more of this product was exported from Ukraine in June than in the first quarter on average. The main driver was high export prices: in the EU — $7,300–7,500/ton (FCA), in Moldova — at least $7,000/ton.
At the same time, in the second half of June, domestic prices for oil continued to rise.
“Despite the decline in production compared to May, oil production in July is expected to be significantly higher than last year,” Infagro predicts.
