International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts the average oil price to reach $80 per barrel in 2023, according to its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Next year, it is expected to drop to $75 per barrel, and in 2025 – to $70 per barrel.
According to the agency’s analysts, the Japanese yen to the US dollar exchange rate will be around 145 yen/$1 at the end of this year, 135 yen at the end of 2024, and 125 yen at the end of 2025.
The single currency exchange rate in the next three years will be EUR 0.92/USD 1.
The pound sterling is expected to reach $1.25 in 2023-2024 and $1.2 in 2025.
The forecast for the Chinese currency at the end of this year is 7.2 yuan/$1, and for the next two years – 7.3 yuan/$1.
Benchmark crude oil prices continue to climb on Thursday afternoon amid a weaker US dollar.
November Brent crude futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 14:29 Q2 are trading at $93 per barrel, up $1.12 (1.22%) from the previous session’s close.
WTI crude futures for October delivery rose $1.14 (1.29%) to $89.66 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The expected increase in global oil demand by 1.5 million bpd in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year will outstrip supply by 1.24 million bpd, according to a report published the day before by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA estimates that the balance of the global oil market turned into a deficit in the third quarter as more supply cuts coincided with record high demand.
Meanwhile, the DXY index, which shows the value of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies, is down 0.03%, boosting the attractiveness of commodities quoted in the U.S. currency.
Oil prices of benchmark grades remain in the plus on Wednesday afternoon after the release of the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) ahead of the publication of official data on oil inventories in the United States. Quotes for November Brent crude oil futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 14:47 Q4 are trading at $92.54 per barrel, up $0.48 (0.52%) from the previous session’s close.
WTI crude oil futures for October on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.48 (0.54%) to $89.32 per barrel by the indicated time.
The expected growth in global oil demand by 1.5 million bpd in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year will outstrip supply by 1.24 million bpd, according to the IEA report.
The agency estimates that the world oil market balance turned into a deficit in the third quarter as more active supply cuts coincided with record high demand.
Thus, the IEA estimates a deficit of 1.5 million b/d in July and 1.7 million b/d in August, the highest since 2021, when a record OPEC+ supply cut was implemented to reduce the surplus accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the first quarter of 2023, the IEA estimated an oil market surplus of 1.5 million bpd in the first quarter and 80,000 bpd in the second quarter.
The U.S. Department of Energy at 17:30 Wednesday will publish a weekly report on commercial stocks of oil, gasoline and distillates in the country. The data of the American Petroleum Institute (API) released the day before showed an increase in oil reserves by 1.174 million barrels at the end of the week ended September 8.
Oil prices continue to rise on Tuesday afternoon, with traders waiting for new signals on supply and demand in the market.
Their attention is focused on the monthly reports of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
In addition, the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, at 23:30, will publish data on oil reserves in the country for the week ended September 8. The market on average expects a decline in reserves by 2 million barrels after a drop of 5.5 million barrels a week earlier, Trading Economics notes. The Energy Ministry will release official data on Wednesday.
The cost of November futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:42 by the end of the quarter is $91.25 per barrel, which is $0.61 (0.67%) higher than at the close of the previous session.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen by $0.71 (0.81%) to $88 per barrel by this time.
The actual selling price of oil and condensate used in determining the royalty for subsoil use in August 2023 amounted to UAH 19,775/tonne, which is 15.1% more than in July (UAH 17,178/tonne). The relevant data is published on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
As reported, in January 2023, the actual selling price amounted to UAH 13,297/tonne, in February – UAH 13,251/tonne, in March – UAH 12,522/tonne, in April – UAH 15,515/tonne, in May – UAH 14,158/tonne, in June – UAH 14,673/tonne, in July – UAH 17,178/tonne.
Oil prices steady after rising to highest since November, Brent above $90 per barrel
Oil prices were stable on Wednesday after rising to their highest levels since November last year on information about Saudi Arabia’s plans to extend voluntary production cuts until the end of 2023.
The cost of October futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:10 a.m. on Wednesday is $90.03 per barrel, which is $0.01 (0.01%) lower than the price at the close of the previous session. On Tuesday, these contracts rose by $1.04 (1.2%) to $90.04 per barrel, the highest since November 16.
The price of October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.03 (0.03%) to $86.66 per barrel. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $1.14 (1.3%) to $86.69 per barrel, the highest value since November 15.
Saudi Arabia will continue to voluntarily reduce oil production by 1 million bpd until the end of 2023, the kingdom’s state agency reported on Tuesday, citing an official source in the Ministry of Energy.
“Further supply constraints will support oil prices,” analysts at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. said in a research note. “We are likely to see a significant reduction in oil inventories as a result of these restrictions.
