Oil prices continue to fall on Wednesday evening after the release of data on oil inventories and inflation in the United States.
The price of July Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stands at $76.19 a barrel by 5:54 p.m. on Wednesday, down $1.25 (1.61%) from the previous session’s closing price.
The price of WTI crude futures for June trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was down $1.41 (1.91%) to $72.3 a barrel by that time.
U.S. commercial oil inventories rose 2.95 million barrels to 462.58 million last week, according to a weekly report from the nation’s Energy Department. Experts had expected a 2.5 million-barrel drop in inventories.
“Downside risks to liquid fuel demand growth will be present through the end of 2024, but we expect seasonal increases in oil consumption and OPEC production cuts to put some upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months,” the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted.
Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 4.9% in April compared to the same month last year, according to Labor Department statistics. The consensus forecast cited by Trading Economics assumed inflation at 5 percent, the same as in March.
Inflation is a key indicator that markets watch because it plays an important role in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
Oil prices rose on Friday despite concerns about the global economy and demand for energy resources after a rate hike in the U.S. and euro zone.
July Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $73.21 a barrel by 8:04 a.m. Friday, up $0.71 (0.98%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.17 (0.2%) to $72.5 a barrel on Thursday.
The price of WTI futures for June oil grew by $0.63 (0.92%) up to $69.19 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX by that time. At the end of previous session the contracts went down by $0.04 (0.1%) to $68.56 per barrel, which was the lowest since March 20.
The day before, the European Central Bank expectedly raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Thus, the benchmark interest rate on loans now stands at 3.75%, the deposit rate at 3.25% and the rate on margin loans at 4%.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve also raised its key interest rate by 25 bps, its range now being the highest since 2007 at 5-5.25% per year. Meanwhile, the words about the necessity to further tighten the monetary policy disappeared from the press release on the results of the meeting.
In addition, it became known that Saudi Arabia in June will raise the price of oil with delivery to European countries, and for Asian buyers the fuel will become cheaper. Prices for oil with delivery in the U.S. next month will not change, with the exception of grade Arab Light, which will become cheaper by $0.5 per barrel, said state company Saudi Aramco.
Oil prices of benchmark grades declined again on Monday.
Quotes rose on Friday, but at the end of the week they fell by more than 5%.
Traders are concerned that further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could worsen the global economy and reduce the demand for fuel, Trading Economics said.
These factors more than offset optimism about China’s economic recovery after the lifting of strict restrictions imposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2022, writes MarketWatch.
Amid a deteriorating economic backdrop and still hawkish behavior by the Federal Reserve, there are no real positive reasons for oil market growth, analysts believe Sevens Report Research
Brent June futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $80.53 per barrel by 8:05 a.m., down $1.13 (1.4%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $0.56 (0.7%) to $81.66 per barrel on Friday.
Price of futures on WTI crude oil for June at electronic trades of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell in the morning by $0.93 (1.2%) – down to $76.94 per barrel. At the end of previous session the cost of contracts rose by $0.5, or 0.7%, to $77.87 per barrel.
Last week the Brent quotations fell by 5.4% and WTI – by 5.5%.
Kernel Agro Holding, one of the largest in Ukraine, processed 744 thousand tons of sunflower seeds in the third quarter of FY2023 (January-March), an increase of 32% compared to the same period last FY, operating six oilseeds processing plants.
“Vegetable oil sales in Q3 FY2023 increased only 1% from the same period last year to 273,000 tons, including 20,000 tons of bottled sunflower oil,” the company said on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
According to it, two oil extraction plants belonging to the group remain inaccessible in the high-risk zone of Kharkiv region with regular shelling by Russian occupiers.
“The group managed to increase the utilization of its plants in January-March 2023 compared to the previous quarter, given the stabilization of electricity supplies in Ukraine and the expansion of the grain corridor,” Kernel pointed out.
Overall, in the first nine months of FY 2023 sunflower processing volume decreased by 8% – to 1 million 858.08 million tons, and oil sales – by 10%, to 819.96 thousand tons.
According to Kernel, due to the postponed 2022 harvest campaign, which was postponed until the winter of 2022/2023, elevator loading in the third quarter of FY 2023 reached an unusually high level of 687,000 tons. However, volumes for the first nine months of the season were down 34% from the same period last year to 2.7 million tons, reflecting a lower 2022 crop compared to the 2021 season.
It is pointed out that the volume of transshipment of export terminals in Ukraine in Q3 FY2023 almost halved compared to the same period last year to 1.1 million tons of grain, sunflower oil and meal, compared to 1.7 million tons of transshipment in the previous quarter.
“The Group’s export volumes are highly dependent on the operation of the “grain corridor” in the Black Sea. Although the grain corridor deal was extended in March 2023, it remains unclear for how long. “Moreover, in the last few days, ship inspections were completely stopped as the Russians refused to perform their duties to interrupt the initiative,” Kernel noted.
The company added that, in addition, stiff competition between Ukrainian terminals for quotas for agricultural exports through the “grain corridor” and the existing quota distribution mechanism are unfavorable for market leaders like Kernel, as historically smaller operators handling relatively smaller volumes have received disproportionately high quotas, making it impossible to maximize exported products.
“Recent import and transit restrictions imposed by neighboring EU countries further reduce agricultural exports from Ukraine,” the company pointed out, specifying that since the launch of the “grain initiative,” 87% of its export volumes have been shipped to foreign markets through Black Sea ports, 6% through Danube ports and 7% through domestic routes.
Continued difficulties with grain logistics in the Black Sea region led to a 61% year-over-year decline in grain exports from Ukraine in Q3 FY2023 to 0.8 million tons, Kernel added.
“To maximize operational efficiency, the Group gives preference to sunflower oil and meal ships rather than bulk grain ships (given the more attractive margins in the Group’s oilseed processing business), although this approach reduces grain export volumes, as logistics capabilities remain a key bottleneck,” the statement said.
According to him, the volume of transshipment of export terminals in Ukraine decreased by 52% to 3 million 504.59 thousand tons and grain exports – by 61% to 3 million 77.7 thousand tons in 9 months of FY2023.
“Kernel” also reported that at the time of the report and since the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the aggressor, 1405 employees of the Group were mobilized in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or joined the territorial defense units. Of these, 558 were demobilized and returned to work, 22 employees were killed, and more than 70 employees were wounded.
“Before the war Kernel was the world’s number one producer and exporter of sunflower oil (about 7% of world production) and the largest producer and marketer of bottled sunflower oil in Ukraine. The company was also engaged in cultivation of other agricultural products and their sale.
In FY2022 (July-2021 – June-2022), the holding posted a net loss of $41 mln versus $506 mln net profit in the previous FY, while its revenue decreased by 5% to $5.332 bln and EBITDA decreased by 3.7 times to $220 mln.
Oil prices of benchmark grades fell on Thursday to their lowest level since early April and continue their weak decline on Friday morning.
This could be the first week of losing territory in the last five weeks. Among the negative factors is a strengthening U.S. dollar, notes MarketWatch. In addition, traders fear that further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could worsen the global economy and reduce the demand for fuel.
The quotations of June futures for Brent at London Stock Exchange ICE Futures made $81.07 per barrel by 8:02 a.m. which is $0.03 (0.04%) lower than the closing price of the previous session. The previous day those contracts fell by $2.02 (2.4%) to $81.1 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for June oil at NYMEX fell by $0.03, to $77.34 per barrel. At the end of previous session the contracts value decreased by $1.87 (by 2.4%) to $77.37 per barrel.
According to Trading Economics, the decrease in WTI quotations since the beginning of the current week exceeds 6%.
Oil prices are stable Wednesday ahead of the release of last week’s U.S. energy inventory data and the country’s March inflation report.
June Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $85.65 a barrel by 8:05 a.m. Wednesday, up $0.04 (0.05%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts rose $1.43 (1.7%) to $85.61 a barrel on Tuesday.
The price of WTI futures for May oil grew by $0.07 (0.09%) to $81.6 per barrel at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. Contracts rose $1.79 (2.2%) to $81.53 a barrel in the previous session.
“The recent OPEC+ decision to cut production continues to support the oil market,” said Warren Patterson, who is responsible for oil market strategy at ING Groep NV.
“However, at the moment all traders’ attention is focused on data on consumer price dynamics in the U.S., and higher-than-expected inflation will have a negative impact on risky assets,” Patterson was quoted by Bloomberg.
These data will be published by the Labor Department of the USA on Wednesday at 15:00 Moscow time. Experts questioned by Trading Economics on average predict a slowdown of inflation in the country in March to 5.2% on an annualized basis from 6% in February.
The market’s attention is also directed to the U.S. Energy Department’s report on the country’s energy inventories for the week ended April 7, which will be released at 5:30 p.m.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on Tuesday night, U.S. oil inventories rose by 377,000 barrels last week after falling by 4.3 million barrels a week earlier. Experts polled by Trading Economics, on average, had expected a 1.3 mln barrel increase in inventories.
Stocks at Cushing terminal, which stores oil traded on Nymex, decreased by 1.4 million barrels, API data show. If this estimate is confirmed by official data, the reduction in inventories in Cushing will be noted at the end of the sixth week in a row.
