Oil prices are actively rising on Thursday morning, recovering after falling to a three-week low the day before on data on another increase in U.S. fuel inventories.
The price of April futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $83.55 a barrel by 7:05 a.m., $0.71 (0.86%) above the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts fell by $2.62 (3.1%) to $82.84 per barrel at the close of trading on Wednesday.
The price of WTI futures for March at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $77.17 per barrel by that time, which is $0.76 (0.99%) above the final value of the previous session. The contract fell by $2.46 (3.1%) to $76.41 a barrel at the previous session, its lowest level since January 10.
The day before the US Department of Energy announced that crude stocks in the country grew by 4.14 mln barrels last week. Growth rate has been recorded for six weeks in a row. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected a decrease in oil reserves by 1 million barrels.
Meanwhile, marketable gasoline reserves rose by 2.58 million barrels and distillates by 2.32 million barrels. Experts had expected gasoline inventories to increase by 2 million barrels and distillate inventories to decrease by 1.5 million barrels.
“The Department of Energy data pointed to an unexpected increase in inventories of all fuels,” said Tariq Zahir, managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors. The weakness in the oil market may well last, and additional declines will be an opportunity to open long positions, he added.
Also on Wednesday, it became known that the ministers of the monitoring committee of OPEC+ (JMMC), considering the data on production for November and December 2022, recommended not to change the quotas on oil production. The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 3, 2023.
In addition, a key event for global markets was the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of the year. The Fed expectedly raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points and said it expects more rate hikes to return inflation to its 2% target.
“Those statements sounded pretty hawkish,” said Tyche Capital’s Zaheer.
Oil prices are rising on Wednesday after falling the day before on weak statistical data from the U.S., which reduced investor optimism about global energy demand.
Traders’ attention is focused on the U.S. Department of Energy report on the country’s energy reserves, which will be released at 17:30.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) data released on Tuesday night showed an increase of 3.378 million barrels in U.S. oil inventories for the third week in a row. The previous two weeks, oil reserves in the country increased by more than 27 million barrels, reaching the highest since June 2021.
The value of March futures for Brent on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures was $86.34 a barrel by 8:10 Moscow time on Wednesday, which was $0.21 (0.24%) higher than the price at the close of the previous session. Those contracts fell by $2.06 (2.3%) to $86.13 a barrel at the close of trading on Tuesday.
The price of WTI futures for March increased by $0.14 (0.17%) to $80.27 per barrel at electronic auctions of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). By the close of previous trading, those contracts had fallen $1.49 (1.8%) to $80.13 a barrel.
“Oil prices are trying to correct after falling the day before on weak data on business activity in the States,” – said an analyst at IG Asia Pte in Singapore Yeop June Rong. – But the pressure on the market remains, the risk appetite of investors remains subdued.
The composite purchasing managers index (PMI) in the United States, calculated by S & P Global, in January rose to 46.6 points from 45 points a month earlier. A reading below the 50-point mark indicates a contraction in business activity. The U.S. PMI has remained below that level for seven months in a row.
Business activity in January continued to fall in both the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors, preliminary data from S&P Global showed.
Oil prices rose on Friday, finishing on the rise for the second week in a row, thanks to investors’ optimism about oil demand in China.
Refining companies in China increase their purchases of oil, hoping for an increase in energy consumption in the country after the lifting of quarantine restrictions, notes Bloomberg.
“Prices are rising amid continued optimism about China’s prospects,” said Charu Chanana, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore. – Signals that the country’s COVID-19 incidence has peaked reinforce expectations for a more sustained rise in demand.”
March Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $86.26 a barrel by 7:15 a.m. Friday, up $0.1 (0.12%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts rose $1.18 (1.4%) to $86.16 a barrel at the close of trading on Thursday.
The price of WTI futures for February at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by that time by $0.17 (0.21%) up to $80.5 per barrel. By closing of previous trades the cost of those contracts grew by $0.85 (1.1%) to $80.33 per barrel.
The previous day the US DOE data showed an unexpected and sharp increase of oil reserves in the USA. The indicator grew by 8.41 mln barrels up to 4483.02 mln barrels while experts interviewed by Bloomberg expected a 3 mln barrel decline of reserves.
Gasoline inventories rose 3.48 million barrels, compared to an expected increase of 2.4 million barrels.
“The inventory data was significantly different from what the market was expecting,” said Tyche Capital Advisors expert Tariq Zahir. – Nevertheless, we expect prices to rise further given the opening of the Chinese economy, the situation in Ukraine (Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine – IF) and the fact that the US government needs to replenish the strategic oil reserve.”
Oil is cheapening fast on Thursday morning after declining the day before. Investors are evaluating signals about increase of fuel reserves in the USA and statements of representatives of the Federal Reserve.
The cost of March futures on the Brent crude at London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $83.83 per barrel by 7:16 a.m., down $1.15 (1.35%) from the close of the previous session. At the close of trading on Wednesday those contracts fell by $0.94 (1.1%) to $84.98 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for February at the electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $78.2 per barrel by that time, which is $1.28 (1.61%) lower than at the end of the previous session. The contract fell by $0.7 (0.9%) to $79.48 per barrel at the end of last session.
The day before oil had had a volatile session: during the trading quotations reached new highs since early December, but then went down on statements of James Ballard, head of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Ballard told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. central bank should continue raising the benchmark interest rate in order to get inflationary pressures down, despite recent statistical data pointing to a slowing economy.
“Such words have heightened fears that the Fed could raise the rate again by 50 basis points at its next meeting,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group.
Moreover, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data, released Thursday night, showed a 7.6 million-barrel increase in U.S. oil inventories last week. A week earlier, reserves rose 14.87 million barrels.
The official report of the U.S. Department of Energy will be released Thursday at 6:00 p.m., a day later than usual due to the Martin Luther King Day holiday on Monday. Analysts polled by WSJ forecast that oil reserves fell by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 13. The survey was conducted before the API data was released.
Oil prices are declining Monday morning after a significant rebound last week, driven by optimism over the impact of the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in China on fuel demand in the country and the world.
The value of March futures for Brent at London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $84.66 a barrel by 7:10 a.m. Kk, down $0.62 (0.73%) from the close of the previous session. At the close of trading last Friday those contracts grew by $1.25 (1.5%) to $85.28 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for February at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $79.35 per barrel by that time, which is $0.51 (0.64%) lower than the final value of the previous session. The contract rose by $1.47 (1.9%) to $79.86 per barrel at the end of last session.
Brent gained 8.3% and WTI gained 8.5%. Both contracts ended trading at the highest levels since the beginning of the year.
The opening of the Chinese economy “was the most important factor behind the growth in oil prices last week”, and data on declining inflation in the U.S. also added to investors’ optimism about the American economy, the president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Michael Lynch said.
In addition, prices were supported by the weakening of the dollar, the expert added.
This week, traders’ attention will focus on the monthly reports of OPEC and the International Energy Agency, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, Trading Econimics noted.
Meanwhile, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. rose by five last week to 623, oil services company Baker Hughes said. The number of gas rigs dropped by two, to 150.
Oil prices are stable in trading on Thursday after a strong growth in the previous session, despite an unexpected increase in inventories in the USA.
The market is supported by the growing optimism of traders about the prospects for fuel demand in China. As noted by Bloomberg, Chinese companies are actively buying oil before the long holiday on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, which this time comes at the end of January.
“Investors are more focused on the global demand picture than energy stock data,” notes Tortoise portfolio manager Brian Kessens. – The focus is on China, which is likely to be the main driver of oil consumption growth in the first quarter.”
The cost of March futures on Brent on London stock exchange ICE Futures is $82,7 per barrel by 7:10 a.m. KSC on Thursday which is by $0,03 (0,04%) higher than the price on previous session closing. At the close of trading on Wednesday those contracts rose by $2.57 (3.2%) to $82.67 a barrel.
The price of WTI futures for February increased by $0.02 (0.03%) up to $77.43 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX. By the close of previous trading the cost of those contracts rose by $2.29 (3.1%) to $77.41 a barrel.
U.S. commercial oil inventories rose 18.96 million barrels to 439.61 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Experts polled by Bloomberg agency expected on average a decrease of 2 million barrels, respondents of S&P Global Commodity Insights – by 500,000 barrels.
The increase in oil inventories is probably due to a temporary reduction in production by U.S. refineries at the end of last month due to frost, notes Market Watch. The current inventory level is about 1% higher than the five-year average.
