Oil prices are rising on Monday, traders are watching the situation in Libya, as well as the progress of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Over the weekend, clashes between two armed groups took place in Tripoli, as a result of which more than 20 people were killed, Bloomberg reports. This raised fears that Libya is waiting for another full-scale conflict, as a result of which oil supplies to the world market will be reduced.
Iran, meanwhile, will continue to study US proposals for a nuclear deal until at least September 2, state news agency Nour News reported.
The cost of October futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:15 am CST on Monday is $101.88 per barrel, which is $0.89 (0.88%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Friday, these contracts rose by $1.65 (1.7%) to $100.99 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $94.06 per barrel by this time, which is $1 (1.07%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market on Friday, the value of these contracts increased by $0.54 (0.6%) to $93.06 per barrel.
As a result of the past week, Brent has risen in price by 4.4%, WTI – by 2.9%.
“Despite the hawkish stance of the world’s largest central banks, which means further hikes in interest rates and weakening economic growth, oil continues to rise in price as the balance of supply and demand speaks in favor of higher prices,” said James Whistler, managing director of Vanir Global Markets Pte in Singapore. “The possibility of OPEC production cuts remains, as Libya and Congo support the position of Saudi Arabia, while the problem of oil supplies from Kazakhstan also remains,” Bloomberg quoted the expert as saying.
In January-July 2022, Ukraine reduced the import of oil and crude oil (according to the TNVED code 2709) by 16.4% (by 101,209 thousand tons) compared to the same period last year, to 516,807 tons.
According to the State Customs Service, raw materials worth $346.377 million were imported in seven months, which is 1.7 times more than in January-July 2021 ($267.354 million), incl. from Azerbaijan – by $346.195 million, Libya – by $0.182 million. In July of this year, Ukraine did not import oil.
Ukraine in January-July 2022 did not export oil, while for the same period in 2021, 89.963 thousand tons of oil were exported from the country to Romania for $27.133 million.
As reported, in 2011 Ukraine imported 5 million 826.316 thousand tons of oil for $4 billion 384.387 million, in 2012 – 1 million 544.196 thousand tons for $1 billion 232.584 million, in 2013 – 761.058 thousand tons for $630.282 million, in 2014 – 178.613 thousand tons for $146.533 million, in 2015 – 248.158 thousand tons for $89.039 million, in 2016 – 515.954 thousand tons for $173.835 million, in 2017 – 1 million 13.359 thousand tons of oil for $442.219 million, in 2018 – 766.832 thousand. tons for $431.735 million, in 2019 – 790.628 thousand tons for $405.748 million, in 2020 – 1 million 245.587 thousand tons for $409.167 million, in 2021 – 1 million 561.247 thousand tons for $827.592 million.
Oil quotes strengthened their rise during trading on Friday and are ending the week in positive territory due to reduced fears of a recession in the US.
October futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose by $1.57 (1.58%) to $100.91 per barrel by 14:11 CST.
Quotes of futures for WTI for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time increased by $1.22 (1.32%) – up to $93.74 per barrel.
On the eve of Brent has fallen in price by 1.9%, WTI – by 2.5%, but since the beginning of the week both contracts have increased in price by more than 3%.
Markets continue to receive support from the statistical data published the day before, according to which the reduction of US GDP in the second quarter amounted to 0.6% in terms of annual rates. The preliminary estimate was worse and indicated a fall of 0.9%.
In addition, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer, has previously hinted at the possibility of a cartel cut in production, which also supports prices.
“A group of producing countries is committed to maintaining a price floor around $100 a barrel, and therefore downside potential appears to be limited,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM.
Market participants also follow the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. On Friday, the event will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could cause the dollar to react, which in turn will affect commodity prices, said SIA Wealth Management senior strategist Colin Czeszynski.
A Ukrainian transport company reacted positively to the proposal of Slovnaft and MOL to pay transit fees for transporting oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, the Slovak company said.
“Slovnaft has already made a payment to the company’s account. Based on this, Slovnaft expects the resumption of oil supplies in the coming days. The Russian side also agreed with this decision,” the company stressed.
According to Bloomberg, the Hungarian MOL also transferred the transit payment and expects to resume deliveries in the coming days.
Earlier, Transneft reported that on August 4, Ukrtransnafta stopped the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine due to a failure to pay the transit fee. It was noted that the funds sent on July 22 for transit in August were returned to the account of Transneft on July 28 in connection with the entry into force of EU Regulation 2022/1269. Through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline passing through the territory of Ukraine, oil supplies are carried out in the direction of the refineries of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic on the basis of a long-term agreement between PJSC Transneft and JSC Ukrtransnafta for the provision of oil transportation services on the terms of 100% prepayment.
The Hungarian MOL and the Slovak Slovnaft (also part of the MOL group) initiated discussions with the Ukrainian and Russian sides on the possibility of paying a transit fee to MOL or Slovnaft, which would allow oil supplies to be restored.
“The interruption of supplies occurred after technical problems at the bank level due to the payment of transit fees from the Russian side. However, production at the Bratislava refinery is running smoothly, and deliveries to the market are smooth. During this period, the Bratislava refinery is in close cooperation with the national oil transporter Transpetrol, as well as in cooperation with the Slovak Ministry of Economy, uses all the reserves available in the system for processing,” Slovnaft said.
So far, there have been no reports of a solution to the problem of transit to the Czech Republic.
Last year, 12 million tons of Russian oil was transported through Druzhba through Ukraine, including 3.4 million tons to the Czech Republic, 5.2 million tons to Slovakia, and 3.4 million tons to Hungary.
In January-June 2022, Ukraine increased the import of oil and crude oil (under economic activity code 2709) by 2.2% (by 11,116 tonnes) compared to the same period last year, to 516,807 tonnes.
According to the State Customs Service, raw materials worth $346.377 million were imported in six months, which is 1.7 times more than in January-June 2021 ($207.806 million), including from Azerbaijan – for $346.195 million, and Libya – $0.182 million.
Ukraine in January-June 2022 did not export oil, while for the same period in 2021, some 89,963 tonnes of oil were exported from the country to Romania for $27.133 million.
Oil prices could soar into the stratosphere and reach $380 per barrel in a worst-case scenario in which Russia cuts fuel supplies in response to Western sanctions, J.P. analysts predict. Morgan Chase & Co.
The Russian Federation can afford to cut production by 5 million barrels per day without causing excessive harm to the economy, Bloomberg quoted bank analysts as saying. Moscow may take such a measure due to various possible measures by the West, including imposing a ceiling on the price buyers pay for Russian oil.
At the same time, the consequences of such actions for the rest of the world will be catastrophic. A 3 million bpd production cut would push Brent oil prices up to $190 per barrel, while in a worst-case scenario, if production falls by 5 million bpd, prices will soar to $380 per barrel, experts say.
“The most obvious and likely risk associated with imposing a price cap is that Russia may decide not to participate in this scheme and instead retaliate by cutting exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government may retaliate by cutting production to harm the West. The lack of supply in the world oil market is playing into the hands of Russia.”
September futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 10:23 Moscow time are trading at around $111.8 per barrel, futures for WTI oil for August on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time are about $108.6 per barrel. barrel.
