Oil prices resumed their rise on Friday amid a new wave of fears about a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Earlier, the United States and its allies warned of a high probability of an Iranian attack on government and military targets in Israel in response to the strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing informed sources, that the attack will take place in the next 24-48 hours.
The cost of June futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:05 a.m. is $90.22 per barrel, which is $0.48 (0.53%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Thursday, these contracts fell by $0.74 (0.8%) to $89.74 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for May in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.61 (0.72%) to $85.63 per barrel. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $1.19 (1.4%) to $85.02 per barrel.
“The threat of Iranian intervention is likely to support the upward trend in oil prices,” said Charu Chanana, an analyst at Saxo Bank Capital Markets in Singapore. – “However, the upward trend in the market will be jeopardized if the escalation of geopolitical risks is avoided.
Traders’ attention on Friday is also focused on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly review of the oil market.
Oil prices will range between $80 and $100 a barrel this year, with global oil demand rising by 1.9 million bpd, according to Russell Hardy, chief executive of international trader Vitol.
“That seems like a reasonable range for the market given that OPEC is controlling global inventory levels,” he said during a conference in Lausanne. – Supply in the market is really tight.”
Brent crude futures topped $90 a barrel last week amid geopolitical risks and signs of strong demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast global oil demand growth of 1.4 million bpd this year, 500,000 less than the forecast of Vitol’s head.
Fuel demand in China will continue to grow, Hardy expects, but the peak will come “relatively soon”.
Oil prices, which ended last week at their highest levels since October, are falling on Monday.
The cost of June futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:10 a.m. is $89.91 per barrel, which is $1.26 (1.38%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts rose by $0.52 (0.6%) to $91.17 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for May in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have fallen by $1.15 (1.32%) to $85.76 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.32 (0.4%) to $86.91 per barrel.
Last week, Brent rose in price by 4.8%, WTI – by 4.5%.
Traders continue to monitor geopolitical news, given Iran’s threats to retaliate against Israel for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Despite the sanctions, Iran is the third largest oil producer in OPEC, Market Watch notes.
Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces withdrew all units from the southern Gaza Strip on Sunday night, The Jerusalem Post reported. According to the newspaper, only one Israeli army brigade has remained in place, tasked with ensuring the security of the corridor linking southern Israel with the Gaza coast.
“A concession such as the withdrawal from Gaza is in no way a reason to discount the threat of a more direct conflict between Israel and Iran,” said Vishnu Varathan, an analyst at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. – “The volatility of oil prices remains, and this is mainly due to geopolitics.
Oil prices are steadily rising on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the release of US inventory data.
The cost of June futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 14:40, is $89.68 per barrel, which is $0.76 (0.85%) higher than at the close of the previous trading.
Futures for WTI for May in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.73 (0.86%) to $85.88 per barrel.
Trading Economics notes a sharp increase in the risk of oil supply disruptions after Iran’s announcement of a planned response to the Israeli air strike on its consulate in Damascus.
On Wednesday, the OPEC+ monitoring committee also met. According to an Interfax source, the committee’s ministers did not make any recommendations to the alliance based on its results; a full meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for June 1.
In addition, at 17:30, the US Department of Energy will publish a weekly report on oil, gasoline, and distillate stocks in the country. The data released the day before by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a drop in oil reserves by 2.286 million barrels in the week ended March 29.
Benchmark crude oil prices continue to rise after a steady increase in the first quarter.
Market participants are looking forward to the meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee later this week.
Quotations for June futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:05 a.m. ET amounted to $87.25 per barrel, which is $0.25 (0.3%) higher than the level at the close of the previous trading. By this time, the price of May futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) had risen by $0.28 (0.3%) to $83.44 per barrel.
The NYMEX and ICE Futures were closed on Friday, March 29, due to Good Friday.
In March, Brent rose by 4.6% and WTI by 6.3%, with the rise recorded for the third month in a row. In the first quarter, prices rose by 13.6% and 16.1%, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market data.
Oil prices are falling on Wednesday on the back of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a significant increase in US stockpiles.
The cost of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:10 a.m. was $85.54 per barrel, which is $0.71 (0.82%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Tuesday, these contracts fell by $0.5 (0.6%) to $86.25 per barrel.
May futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.61 (0.75%) to $81.01 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.33 (0.4%) to $81.62 per barrel.
According to API estimates, US oil inventories increased by 9.337 million barrels in the week ended March 22, the highest increase since mid-February 2023.
Oil inventories at the Cushing terminal, where Nymex-traded crude is stored, increased by 2.4 million barrels, API reported.
Official data on energy reserves in the US will be released by the Department of Energy at 16:30 pm.
The oil market continues to monitor the geopolitical situation and awaits news from OPEC+.
The coalition states, which will hold a regular meeting on April 3, are likely to maintain the current production restrictions. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the OPEC+ countries do not yet see the need to change production volumes.
