Benchmark crude oil prices are rising on Monday morning.
Despite a slight downward correction in trading on Friday, crude rose by about 4% last week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“The most turbulent part of the rally is still ahead,” said Alex Kupcikiewicz, senior market analyst at FxPro, as quoted by MarketWatch.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:00 a.m. was $85.64 per barrel, which is $0.3 (0.35%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.08 (0.1%) to $85.34 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the morning increased by $0.35 (0.43%) to $81.39 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts fell by $0.22 (0.3%) to $81.04 per barrel.
The market was boosted, in particular, by the news of a decline in US oil inventories for the first time in seven weeks.
Other factors contributing to the growth of quotations are the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and the extension of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries, experts say.
In addition, the International Energy Agency has raised its 2024 demand forecast by 200 thousand barrels per day to 103.2 million bpd. As a result, the IEA now expects the global market to face a deficit of about 300 thousand bpd this year instead of the previously expected small surplus if OPEC+ restrictions continue.
On Friday morning, oil prices for benchmark brands are being adjusted downward after rising to their highest levels since early November following the results of previous trading.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:00 a.m. was $85.23 per barrel, which is $0.19 (0.22%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.39 (1.7%) to $85.42 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the morning fell by $0.17 (0.21%) to $81.09 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts rose by $1.54 (1.9%) to $81.26 per barrel.
Since the beginning of the week, oil has risen in price by about 4% due to signs of high demand in the United States and bullish analysts’ forecasts for fuel consumption this year, Trading Economics writes.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its forecast for oil demand in 2024 by 200 thousand barrels per day to 103.2 million bpd. In particular, the estimate of oil consumption in the first quarter was improved by 400 thousand bpd to 102 million bpd, the forecast for the second and third quarters was increased by 200 thousand bpd to 103 and 104 million bpd, respectively.
Prices for benchmark crude oil are rising slightly on Tuesday morning, with quotes ending the previous session virtually unchanged.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 7:08 a.m. is $82.43 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.27%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts increased in price by 13 cents to $82.21 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.13 (0.17%) to $78.06 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by 8 cents to $77.93 per barrel.
Market participants are awaiting the release of inflation data in the United States on Tuesday, as well as the publication of monthly reports by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In addition, traders are monitoring the compliance of OPEC+ countries with their voluntary commitments to reduce supplies, as well as the level of production in the United States, which has been near record levels since the end of January.
“OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy are sending mixed signals, and in order for the market to clearly determine the direction of movement,” they need to come to the same conclusion, said Charu Chanana, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
Prices for benchmark crude oil are falling on Monday morning, continuing the decline of the past week.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:08 a.m. was $81.52 per barrel, which is $0.56 (0.68%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, these contracts fell in price by $0.88 (1.1%) to $82.08 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time fell by $0.59 (0.76%) to $77.42 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by $0.92 (1.2%) to $78.01 per barrel.
Over the past week, the international benchmark fell by 1.8%, while the North American benchmark fell by 2.5%.
Investors are being cautious ahead of this week’s release of US inflation data and monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which could affect the market outlook, Trading Economics writes.
Traders are also following the truce talks between Israel and Hamas, which have not yet yielded significant results, and assessing China’s foreign trade statistics.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, oil imports from China in the first two months of the year fell by about 5.7% to 10.9 million barrels per day.
Benchmark oil prices are moderately rising on Friday morning after a slight decline the day before, which did not prevent the quotes from ending in the black for the second month in a row.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 7:01 a.m. is $82.19 per barrel, which is $0.28 (0.34%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, these contracts fell in price by $0.24 (0.3%) to $81.91 per barrel.
Quotations for April futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.21 (0.27%) to $78.47 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by $0.28 (0.4%) to $78.26 per barrel.
In February, the price of Brent rose by 2.3%, WTI – by 3.2%, despite “various forces that put pressure on the global commodity market,” said FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga.
“In any case, prices remain in a fairly wide range, and it will take a fundamental stimulus to shift the balance of power towards bulls or bears,” he said in an interview with MarketWatch. – “This could be an extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, increased geopolitical tensions, or a pleasant surprise from the Chinese economy.
Benchmark oil prices are falling on Monday morning after falling on Friday and last week.
The price of April futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 78:11 Q4 is $81.33 per barrel, which is $0.29 (0.36%) lower than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts fell by $2.05 to $81.62 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.33 (0.43%) to $76.16 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $2.12 to $76.49 per barrel.
Over the past week, both brands fell by more than 2%.
Traders are keeping an eye on the situation in the Middle East and are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting to discuss the extension of oil production restrictions for another quarter.
“We still expect OPEC+ to extend production cuts into the second quarter of 2024 and begin to gradually lift them only in the third quarter,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
The bank believes that oil prices will fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel.
Meanwhile, data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States increased by six to 503 units. Meanwhile, the number of gas rigs decreased by one to 120.
