Imports of chilled and frozen pork (UKT ZED 0203) exceeded 6,000 tons in September, which is 31% more than a month earlier and is the highest figure since January 2022, according to the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association (ASU).
“Unlike last year, foreign supplies in 2025 picked up significantly in response to weaker domestic pork supply and higher prices, and in the second half of the year, average monthly imports of pork from abroad reached 2022 levels. At the same time, importers did not exceed the record figure of 6.6 thousand tons recorded in January 2022,” the industry association noted.
According to analysts, the stimulus for increased import activity was both high prices for Ukrainian pork and the exhaustion of quotas for duty-free pork supplies from the EU.
“Since this year’s seasonal decline in domestic pork supply coincided with the effects of a reduction in the country’s pig population, prices for Ukrainian pork are significantly higher and have remained at a consistently high level for a long time. In contrast, the average customs value of imported pork in September fell to $2.56 per kg (-2.2% compared to August). Since the vast majority of such products come from EU countries, the exhaustion of quotas for duty-free imports encouraged some operators to build up stocks of products before the forced “price increase” due to customs tariffs,” the experts explained.
The ASU stated that in the first three quarters of 2025, Ukraine imported 20.8 thousand tons of chilled and frozen pork (UKT ZED 0203) worth $53.2 million, of which only 142 tons were imported from Canada, while the rest of the consignments were imported from the EU. Therefore, further imports of pork from there will be subject to import duties: chilled — 12%, frozen — 10%.
At the same time, a number of importers are convinced that duties will not stop the flow of pork as long as it is economically justified.
“European pork prices have been weakening since the beginning of July and fell by 6% in September due to seasonal changes, increased domestic supply, and difficulties with foreign trade, in particular, China’s introduction of 62% duties on pork imports from EU countries. Therefore, according to some operators, the price pressure from these factors may offset the aforementioned increase in import costs,” the association emphasized.
At the same time, other players are convinced that against the backdrop of a significant reduction in domestic pork supply in Ukraine compared to last year, the pressure on prices from imports and the impact on the market will not be too critical. Thus, if the pace of supplies remains at the level of the third quarter of this year, the total annual imports of pork will not exceed 35,000 tons. In this case, it will account for no more than 5-6% of the estimated domestic supply of pork, which is a quarter less than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021. Therefore, the vast majority of pork on the domestic market continues to be supplied by Ukrainian producers.
Higher prices on the domestic pork market somewhat slowed down the shipment of Ukrainian pork abroad in August and September, but the total export volume for the first nine months of the year exceeded 2,000 tons, amounting to almost $6.2 million. The key trading destinations remain Hong Kong, the UAE, Bahrain, and Malaysia, but businesses and government agencies are actively working together to open up a number of new markets, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, and others,” summarized the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association.
Ukraine has seen a significant increase in imports of fresh and frozen pork. In August 2025, 4.6 thousand tons of meat were imported, which is 48% more than in July, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association’s analysts noted that in January-August 2025, Ukraine imported 14.9 thousand tons of pork, which is 7.8 times more than in the same period of 2024, the highest figure since 2022.
The largest purchases were observed in July and August, totaling 7.7 thousand tons. In the first two weeks of September, another 3.2 thousand tons were imported. Experts predict that by the end of the year, purchases will reach at least 25,000 tons, with the majority of deliveries occurring in the second half of the year.
The main suppliers of pork to Ukraine are Denmark, Poland, and the Netherlands.
“The main reason for active imports was the reduction of the pig population in winter to 4.5 million heads, mainly in private households. This led to a shortage of supply in the domestic market and an increase in prices,” explained UACB analyst Maxim Gopka.
According to UACB data, in September, purchase prices for live weight of bacon breeds of pigs ranged from 98 to 100 UAH/kg, depending on the region. Since the beginning of the year, prices have risen by 34%, and by 60% on an annual basis.
Analysts noted that there has been a decline in the cost of live pigs in the EU, which makes their markets attractive for Ukrainian purchases. Thus, imports have become an alternative source of raw materials.
It is likely that a reduction in imports will only be possible through a gradual increase in the pig population, which in the long term will also affect domestic purchase prices. According to the State Statistics Service, as of September 1, 2025, there were 4.8 million pigs in Ukraine, which is 5% less than last year but 7% more than in January. Despite an increase of 330,000 head since the beginning of the year, market supply remains limited. The recovery is mainly taking place in the enterprise sector, which currently accounts for 65% of the livestock population, according to the UCAAB.
Average food prices in Ukraine in July 2025 increased by 2.8% compared to January, with rye flour and pork leading the way, rising by 29.9% and 26.1% respectively, according to the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat).
According to the agency, beef rose by 12.5% to 178.75 UAH/kg, pork by 26.1% to 140.29 UAH/kg, and poultry by 19.9% to 89.33 UAH/kg during the reporting period.
Meat products lag slightly behind in terms of price increases. Cooked sausages, sausages, and frankfurters rose in price by 9.3% over seven months and cost an average of 143.9 UAH/kg, while semi-smoked sausages in July could be purchased for an average of 181.79 UAH/kg, which is 7.4% more than in January.
Unrefined sunflower oil rose in price by 1.5% to 47.09 UAH/kg, and refined sunflower oil rose by 3.6% to 57.77 UAH/kg.
Sugar rose in price by 6.3% over the first seven months of this year and currently costs 21.49 UAH/kg.
Wheat and wheat-rye flour rose in price by 2.6% in July compared to January and costs 12.81 thousand UAH/t, while rye is hitting record highs, rising by 29.9% to 13.68 thousand UAH/t.
Accordingly, wheat bread rose in price by 5.1% to 35.51 UAH/kg, and rye-wheat bread by 7.2% to 33.68 UAH/kg. Prices for rye bread rose by 13.8% over seven months, reaching 50.63 UAH/kg. Gingerbread, cookies, and waffles added 6.9% in price and cost an average of 85.96 UAH/kg. The slowest growth in this product category was seen in pasta and noodles, which rose by 1.5% to 25.94 UAH/kg.
Buckwheat fell in price by 3.2% over the first seven months of this year, to UAH 23.72/kg, and millet by 2.4%, to UAH 15.63/kg.
From January to July inclusive, milk (by 4.8%, to 33.4 UAH/kg), butter (by 0.8%, to 307.41 UAH/kg), hard cheese (by 2.6%, to 226.83 UAH/kg), sour cream (by 1.1%, to 99.11 UAH/kg). At the same time, skimmed milk powder rose by 4.8% to 103.04 UAH/kg, and kefir rose by 1.2% to 38.77 UAH/kg.
In the alcoholic beverages segment, from January to July, denatured alcohol rose in price by 7.2% and costs 330.05 UAH/liter, beer rose by 3.9% to 31.26 UAH/liter, while brandy fell in price by 0.1% to 146.89 UAH/liter, and vodka fell by 2.6% to 76.3 UAH/liter.
Non-alcoholic beverages rose in price by 6.4% over seven months, to 21.65 UAH/liter.
Tomato juice remains the most affordable for Ukrainian consumers. In July 2025, it costs 40.53 UAH/liter, which is 2.4% more than in January, while orange juice rose in price by 9.2% and can be purchased for 61.27 UAH/liter. Apple juice became the most expensive at 71.16 UAH/liter, which is 7.6% more than at the beginning of 2025.
Purchasing prices for pork remained relatively stable at the beginning of June, at 92-94 UAH/ton, according to the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association (ASU) based on the results of its weekly monitoring of purchasing prices.
“The first summer trades ended with stable quotations for most operators or a slight correction of 0.5-1 UAH/kg for some market players. Therefore, prices for live pigs this week mostly fluctuated within the range of 92-94 UAH/kg, although there were both higher and lower offers. The latter, in particular, concern the sale of animals in poor condition,” the analysts explained.
According to their information, thanks to positive price changes in the east and south, where the shortage of live cattle is more acute, the average market price stood at 92.8 UAH/kg, which is 0.3% higher than a week earlier.
At the same time, experts noted that the green holidays passed almost unnoticed for the meat market. Therefore, meat processors do not expect a surge in consumer activity in the near future. Some of them hope that improved weather conditions and the approaching holiday season will revive trade and prevent refusals/returns at the final stage of sales.
At the same time, processors are preparing for increased pressure from seasonal factors on pork supply. Although the feedback and mood of processing companies currently vary, most tend to believe that purchase prices at upcoming auctions will remain unchanged, as consistently low sales are offset by a modest supply of live pigs, the industry association concluded.
The market for slaughter pigs continues to stabilize and consolidate, with prices in the last days of May recorded at 92-93 UAH/kg, according to the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association (ASU) based on the results of weekly monitoring of purchase prices.
“At the end of May, prices on the live pig market remained largely within the price range of the previous week — 92-93 UAH/kg. At the same time, the weighted average market price fell by 0.6% to 92.7 UAH/kg. This change was due to a revision of the maximum price offers on the market,” analysts explained.
According to their information, meat processing representatives report relative stability in wholesale and retail prices for pork. In recent weeks, operators have described trade as consistently sluggish and have also noted that demand for quality pork is in line with supply. Given this conditional market balance, most processors expect pork market prices to remain unchanged at the beginning of summer. At the same time, buyers note that the volume of live pigs on the market remains quite “restrained,” which forces them to maintain a larger than usual “purchasing radius” that is not limited to neighboring regions.
“A number of processors believe that with the improvement of weather conditions, prices on the live pig market may return to their previous levels,” the ASU concluded.
In February 2025, Ukraine imported 963 tons of pork, which is three times more than in January of this year, according to the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA).
“The revival of import activity took place against the backdrop of an unconventional increase in purchase prices for the season. Instead, the average price of a kilogram of imported meat raw materials was lower than the minimum price level of last year, which was recorded in January – $1.89 per 1 kg and $1.92 per 1 kg at the end of winter,” analysts said.
According to their information, the products imported to Ukraine do not compete with Ukrainian pork, so imports still do not affect prices.
“Since the domestic supply of pork this year is less than the previous year, during the period of increased demand for meat in spring and summer, imports may increase, and the range of such products will be more diverse. For example, if prices in European markets, where we import the lion’s share of pork, decline while prices in Ukraine remain high, it will be economically justified to import cheaper raw materials. In this case, the pressure on the domestic market and its pricing from imports will increase, but we are not seeing this yet,” the industry association said.
Although February imports are the largest in the last 14 months, according to representatives of the meat industry, its presence on the market is still almost imperceptible, experts say.
In January and February 2025, pork exports remained at least 292 tons per month, so the total for the first two months amounted to 587.4 tons, or $1.6 million in monetary terms.
At the same time, the geography of foreign trade in Ukrainian pork remains limited. The main buyer countries for Ukrainian pork are Hong Kong, where 30% of external shipments were sent, the UAE – 22%, Malaysia and Georgia – 13% and 10%, respectively. The remaining Ukrainian pork was exported in small volumes to Bahrain, Liberia, and South Korea.
