In January-October 2024, Ukraine exported 2.5 thousand tons of chilled and frozen pig meat, and imported 2.1 thousand tons, imports are likely to fall to a record low, the Pig Producers of Ukraine (PUA) industry association reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
“Given the minimal presence of imported pork on the market (less than 1% of the total capacity), this year the meat industry is most focused on domestic products. At the same time, the low activity of external pork supplies “hints” that this year may set a new record low in terms of imports, breaking the previous one – 5.2 thousand tons, which was recorded in 2018,” analysts said.
The USBA highly appreciated the growth of pork supplies to foreign markets, which in January-October exceeded 2.5 thousand tons and brought $ 6 million, which is higher than the cost of importing pork by $ 780 thousand.
Analysts predict that Ukraine will be able to finish 2024 as a net exporter, albeit by a small margin.
According to the USBA, the limited geography of foreign trade prevents more tangible export achievements. For example, 75% of Ukrainian pork is exported to the UAE, while the rest in small volumes is exported to Bahrain, Malaysia, Liberia, Hong Kong, and Angola.
As reported, the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection is negotiating bilateral veterinary certificates required for foreign trade with a number of countries, including South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, etc.
Prices for the purchase of slaughter pigs in the third decade of September continued to recover, according to the Pig Producers of Ukraine industry association.
“Last week’s trading ended with a noticeable strengthening of prices for the purchase of live pork: most industrial pig farms “signed” commodity lots by 3-5.5 UAH/kg more expensive than a week earlier. Thus, the main volumes of live pork this week were purchased at 61-63 UAH/kg, although in some places quotations fluctuated by 1 UAH/kg both up and down. The weighted average market price amounted to 61.76 UAH/kg (+9.7% compared to last week), analysts said.
According to representatives of meat processing, the course of pork sales remains relatively stable, without any particular jerks or recessions. At the same time, some procurers say that the supply of conditioned pork is lower than they would like, so in some places there is a shortage of it. This is also confirmed by feedback from pork producers, who are increasingly interested in cooperation from former or new contractors, as well as requests for additional volumes.
“The operators of the live pork market currently see no prerequisites for lowering prices, but rather at least strengthening at the current level or increasing them to 65 UAH/kg,” the industry association summarized.
Prices for live pigs increased by 5.5% over the week and reached 61.8 UAH/kg on average in the country, the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA) reported.
According to the report, last Friday’s auction ended with an increase in purchase prices for slaughter pigs by 2-4 UAH/kg. Therefore, in mid-August, live pork prices mostly tended to 61.5-62 UAH/kg, although in some places quotes were announced in a wider range – 60-63+ UAH/kg.
“The expectations of the meat processing industry representatives regarding further price dynamics are not uniform. Thus, some operators note that the trade is quite stable, while others, on the contrary, have felt some activation since the second half of the week, as additional applications began to arrive,” analysts said.
Processing enterprises consider the seasonally adjusted supply of conditioned pork to be mostly sufficient to meet their current needs for raw materials, but do not rule out the possibility of further positive price correction by at least 1-2 UAH/kg, the industry association summarized.
The average price of pork on supermarket shelves in July amounted to 193.3 UAH/kg, which is 0.8% or 1.5 UAH/kg higher than in June, according to the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA).
“The price of the seasonally popular position – pork neck – increased most noticeably (by 3.3%). Pork tenderloin and steak went up by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, while the change in prices for shoulder and loin was limited to 1% and 0.8%. Brisket and thigh, on the contrary, became more affordable (-2.6% and -1.7%), which slightly slowed down the growth of average pork prices,” analysts said.
According to experts, although the demand for pork remains sensitive to changes in prices on the shelves, their fluctuations in July were insignificant, and other factors influenced the dynamics of trade.
“Suppliers to retail chains and specialized meat shops experienced a slowdown in sales during the month due to prolonged power outages and high temperatures. At the same time, they noted a revival in demand as the power supply stabilized and temperatures dropped. An additional factor that supports consumer interest in this type of meat is that in July, chilled pork semi-finished products cost an average of 6% cheaper than a year ago, while chicken, on the contrary, rose by 4%,” the industry association summarized.
Exports of Ukrainian pork increased by 36% in July 2024, while imports decreased by 23.5% compared to June, the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA) reported, citing data from the State Customs.
“During July, almost 150 tons of pork (UKTZED 0203) were imported to Ukraine, which is 23.5% less than a month earlier. At the same time, the volume of pork exports in the second month of summer amounted to more than 400 tons, exceeding the June figure by more than 36%,” the report says.
According to analysts, pork imports for 7 months of 2024 amounted to 1.78 thousand tons, while exports amounted to 1.64 thousand tons. In currency terms, the difference does not exceed 10%, or $ 0.4 million.
“The average purchase price of pork in July slightly exceeded the June figure, but in general, quotations remain at a fairly low level. On the one hand, this forms an organic entry barrier for imports, on the other hand, it supports the competitiveness of Ukrainian pork in foreign markets,” the experts explained.
According to the USBA, the UAE remains the main foreign market for Ukrainian pork (85.7% of total exports for the period), and its importers are the EU countries (37.8%) and Canada (62.2%).
Ukrainian pork producers increased pork exports in June by 1.5 times compared to May, mainly to the United Arab Emirates, while imports continue to decline, the Pig Producers of Ukraine association reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, the volume of pork imports (UKT ZED 0203) in June amounted to 195 tons, and the average customs value of an imported kilogram was $2.27, which is $0.3 less than in May.
“Pork exports in June were 1.5 times higher: almost 296 tons of pork were exported out of the country during the month, with a total value of about $700. In general, 2024 was a very atypical year for foreign trade in pork, because the gap between the volume of pork imports from abroad and exports of Ukrainian pork is not so significant,” analysts said.
Thus, the total imports in January-June amounted to 1.63 thousand tons, which is 3.5 times less than the volume imported in the first half of 2023, and exports for this period are only a quarter less – 1.2 thousand tons, which exceeds last year’s volumes of shipments to foreign markets, the report says.
In their opinion, the decline in prices in the domestic market observed in the first half of the year is quite natural: a lower domestic price creates a barrier to entry for imported pork and at the same time helps to improve the competitive position of products in foreign markets.
At the same time, despite the divergence of export and import volumes, there is a certain parallel, as the geography in both cases is limited.
“All the pork imported in June came from Canada, while Ukrainian pork was sent to the UAE market. In the first half of 2024, revenues from Canada accounted for 66% of imported pork, and 9 out of 10 kg of pork exported outside the country entered the market of the United Arab Emirates,” the industry association stated.
