In January, Ukraine increased pork imports, the total volume of which exceeded foreign purchases in October-December 2024, the Pig Producers of Ukraine (PUA) association reported, citing preliminary customs statistics.
“During the first month of the year, Ukraine imported about 323 tons of pork, which is more than twice the total volume of products imported in October-December last year, as well as in January 2024. Although there has been a revival in import activity, the import flow is not so active as to significantly affect the domestic market,” the industry association noted.
The analysts drew attention to the fact that the increased interest of Ukrainian meat market players in imported raw materials has led to an increase in domestic pork prices.
“The average purchase price of slaughterhouse pigs in January increased by 5.5% compared to December, which is an atypical price behavior for the winter period, as it was the market’s response to a decrease in domestic supply. European pork prices, on the other hand, continued their typical seasonal decline. Therefore, although the average customs value of a kilogram of imported pork was higher than it was recorded last year ($2.84 vs. $2.52 per kg excluding VAT on average in 2024), a number of meat processing enterprises took the opportunity to optimize raw material costs in this way,” the experts noted.
They reminded that imports of pork have historically played a role of leverage on domestic prices, but currently its volumes do not put pressure on quotations, as most meat processors do not currently feel the inflow of imported raw materials.
Exports of pig meat in January were slightly lower than imports, amounting to 295 tons. In addition to the main sales markets (UAE, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Liberia), pork supplies to Georgia resumed at the beginning of the year, the USBA stated.
In January-October 2024, Ukraine exported 2.5 thousand tons of chilled and frozen pig meat, and imported 2.1 thousand tons, imports are likely to fall to a record low, the Pig Producers of Ukraine (PUA) industry association reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
“Given the minimal presence of imported pork on the market (less than 1% of the total capacity), this year the meat industry is most focused on domestic products. At the same time, the low activity of external pork supplies “hints” that this year may set a new record low in terms of imports, breaking the previous one – 5.2 thousand tons, which was recorded in 2018,” analysts said.
The USBA highly appreciated the growth of pork supplies to foreign markets, which in January-October exceeded 2.5 thousand tons and brought $ 6 million, which is higher than the cost of importing pork by $ 780 thousand.
Analysts predict that Ukraine will be able to finish 2024 as a net exporter, albeit by a small margin.
According to the USBA, the limited geography of foreign trade prevents more tangible export achievements. For example, 75% of Ukrainian pork is exported to the UAE, while the rest in small volumes is exported to Bahrain, Malaysia, Liberia, Hong Kong, and Angola.
As reported, the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection is negotiating bilateral veterinary certificates required for foreign trade with a number of countries, including South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, etc.
Prices for the purchase of slaughter pigs in the third decade of September continued to recover, according to the Pig Producers of Ukraine industry association.
“Last week’s trading ended with a noticeable strengthening of prices for the purchase of live pork: most industrial pig farms “signed” commodity lots by 3-5.5 UAH/kg more expensive than a week earlier. Thus, the main volumes of live pork this week were purchased at 61-63 UAH/kg, although in some places quotations fluctuated by 1 UAH/kg both up and down. The weighted average market price amounted to 61.76 UAH/kg (+9.7% compared to last week), analysts said.
According to representatives of meat processing, the course of pork sales remains relatively stable, without any particular jerks or recessions. At the same time, some procurers say that the supply of conditioned pork is lower than they would like, so in some places there is a shortage of it. This is also confirmed by feedback from pork producers, who are increasingly interested in cooperation from former or new contractors, as well as requests for additional volumes.
“The operators of the live pork market currently see no prerequisites for lowering prices, but rather at least strengthening at the current level or increasing them to 65 UAH/kg,” the industry association summarized.
Prices for live pigs increased by 5.5% over the week and reached 61.8 UAH/kg on average in the country, the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA) reported.
According to the report, last Friday’s auction ended with an increase in purchase prices for slaughter pigs by 2-4 UAH/kg. Therefore, in mid-August, live pork prices mostly tended to 61.5-62 UAH/kg, although in some places quotes were announced in a wider range – 60-63+ UAH/kg.
“The expectations of the meat processing industry representatives regarding further price dynamics are not uniform. Thus, some operators note that the trade is quite stable, while others, on the contrary, have felt some activation since the second half of the week, as additional applications began to arrive,” analysts said.
Processing enterprises consider the seasonally adjusted supply of conditioned pork to be mostly sufficient to meet their current needs for raw materials, but do not rule out the possibility of further positive price correction by at least 1-2 UAH/kg, the industry association summarized.
The average price of pork on supermarket shelves in July amounted to 193.3 UAH/kg, which is 0.8% or 1.5 UAH/kg higher than in June, according to the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA).
“The price of the seasonally popular position – pork neck – increased most noticeably (by 3.3%). Pork tenderloin and steak went up by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, while the change in prices for shoulder and loin was limited to 1% and 0.8%. Brisket and thigh, on the contrary, became more affordable (-2.6% and -1.7%), which slightly slowed down the growth of average pork prices,” analysts said.
According to experts, although the demand for pork remains sensitive to changes in prices on the shelves, their fluctuations in July were insignificant, and other factors influenced the dynamics of trade.
“Suppliers to retail chains and specialized meat shops experienced a slowdown in sales during the month due to prolonged power outages and high temperatures. At the same time, they noted a revival in demand as the power supply stabilized and temperatures dropped. An additional factor that supports consumer interest in this type of meat is that in July, chilled pork semi-finished products cost an average of 6% cheaper than a year ago, while chicken, on the contrary, rose by 4%,” the industry association summarized.
Exports of Ukrainian pork increased by 36% in July 2024, while imports decreased by 23.5% compared to June, the Ukrainian Pig Association (UPA) reported, citing data from the State Customs.
“During July, almost 150 tons of pork (UKTZED 0203) were imported to Ukraine, which is 23.5% less than a month earlier. At the same time, the volume of pork exports in the second month of summer amounted to more than 400 tons, exceeding the June figure by more than 36%,” the report says.
According to analysts, pork imports for 7 months of 2024 amounted to 1.78 thousand tons, while exports amounted to 1.64 thousand tons. In currency terms, the difference does not exceed 10%, or $ 0.4 million.
“The average purchase price of pork in July slightly exceeded the June figure, but in general, quotations remain at a fairly low level. On the one hand, this forms an organic entry barrier for imports, on the other hand, it supports the competitiveness of Ukrainian pork in foreign markets,” the experts explained.
According to the USBA, the UAE remains the main foreign market for Ukrainian pork (85.7% of total exports for the period), and its importers are the EU countries (37.8%) and Canada (62.2%).
