The Center for Economic Recovery and the Ukrainian Business and Trade Association (UBTA) in a letter to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal propose to consider three scenarios for reducing the country’s carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and, accordingly, adjust the goal of Ukraine’s second Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris agreement.
“Considering the fact that for the entire period of Ukraine’s independence, the dynamics of GDP and the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions had an almost direct correlation, business associations expressed concern about Ukraine’s plans with great ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 35% by 2030 from the 1990 level,” the letter says.
The analytical report prepared by the associations contains three scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions until 2030. As noted, the scenarios are calculated in accordance with the goals of the National Economic Strategy of Ukraine.
According to the baseline scenario, with the volume of investments in decarbonization at the level of EUR12 billion, Ukraine will be able to reduce CO2 emissions to 43% of the 1990 level.
The conservative scenario envisages achieving a more ambitious goal of reducing emissions to 40%. At the same time, investments in decarbonization should increase to EUR27 billion.
In accordance with the optimistic scenario, Ukraine can reduce CO2 emissions to 36% (the target is 35%), provided that it invests EUR50 billion in decarbonization by 2030.
The letter states that at the current level of financing environmental modernization, only the baseline scenario is realistic for Ukraine so far.
