YouGov poll shows that ending the war with Russia through negotiations is the preferred option in four out of seven countries
Willingness to support Ukraine “until victory” has fallen sharply in Western Europe at a critical time, according to a poll, as Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House raises questions about the future of US military aid to Kyiv.
A December YouGov poll in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found that public willingness to support Ukraine to victory – even if it means prolonging the war – has declined sharply in all seven countries over the past 12 months.
Support for an alternative solution to the conflict – a negotiated end to hostilities, even if it would leave Russia in control of parts of Ukraine – has increased in every country, the poll found, and in four of them this option is the most desirable.
There was some dissatisfaction with the idea of an imposed settlement that would involve Ukraine ceding part of its territory to Russia, as well as a widespread belief that the new US president would leave Ukraine after his inauguration on January 20.
Trump boasted, without providing details, that he could end the war “in 24 hours,” and his ambassador to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is scheduled to visit European capitals in early January. Analysts express doubts that Russian President Vladimir Putin will negotiate on terms acceptable to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Trump’s victory amid frustration with the outgoing Biden administration’s gradualist policies and ‘escalation management’ strategy.
The news comes almost three years after Putin’s full-scale invasion and at a critical time for Ukraine. This year, Russia has advanced at its fastest pace since the spring of 2022, when its columns made an unsuccessful attempt to seize Kyiv.
Russian troops have seized several towns in eastern Donbas, and Ukraine’s armed forces are struggling to defend populated areas in the face of a lack of forward forces and Russia’s continued military superiority.
Kyiv acknowledges that the Kremlin’s tactics have been effective, including the use of aircraft to strike defensive positions with glider bombs, followed by artillery shelling and small infantry groups. Russia is also adept at identifying weak Ukrainian brigades.
The poll showed that the willingness to support Ukraine until it defeats Russia remains high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), and in the UK (36%), but these levels are down 14 points from January’s 57%, 51% and 50%.
During the same period, the percentage of those who prefer a negotiated peace increased to 55% from 45% in Italy, 46% (38%) in Spain, 43% (35%) in France, and 45% (38%) in Germany, accompanied by a corresponding drop in willingness to support Ukraine until it wins.
It was unclear whether this change reflected a decline in interest or growing fatigue. In France, Germany, and Sweden, the share of those who want Ukraine to win – and are rooting for it to win – has remained stable since early 2023, although it has declined in other countries.
Less than a month before Trump’s return, a majority or near-majority in all but one country considered it likely that the newly elected US president would stop supporting Ukraine: 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% of Britons, 52% of French, and 48% of Italians.
They were less confident that Trump would withdraw the United States from the NATO defense alliance: Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards, and Swedes were more likely to believe that this would not happen, while the British and French were evenly divided.
People are also split on how they feel about a peaceful settlement that would leave Russia in control of at least some of the parts of Ukraine it illegally seized after invading in February 2022, as Trump reportedly may be planning.
Majorities in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%), and the United Kingdom (51%), as well as a significant minority (43%) in Spain, said they would have a very or somewhat negative attitude toward such a deal, compared to only 37% in France and 31% in Germany and Italy.
It is unclear how any deal on Ukraine could be concluded. Last week, Putin reaffirmed his maximalist goals, including Russian control of Crimea and the four “annexed” Ukrainian regions, as well as the demilitarization of Ukraine and a veto on its NATO membership.
Zelenskyy is unwilling to hand over the occupied territories to Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte criticized Western talk of a peace process as premature, saying that Ukraine must get what it needs to stop Putin’s victory.
The poll showed that most Westerners believe that Ukraine’s allies are not doing enough, both in terms of economic sanctions against Moscow and military and other assistance to Kyiv, to prevent Russia from winning the war.
About 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Britons, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of French said that overall assistance to Ukraine was either insufficient or almost insufficient. However, few believe that their country should increase support.
A minority – ranging from 29% in Sweden to 21% in the UK and Germany, to 14% in France and only 11% in Italy – believed that their government should increase aid to Ukraine, with a larger share of respondents in each country saying it should either be maintained or reduced.
When it came to specific measures, such as strengthening sanctions, supplying more weapons, sending more troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe, or coordinating airstrikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, support was stable or lower than before.
When asked what they thought the situation would be like in a year’s time, few Western Europeans believed that either Russia or Ukraine would win, with most believing that both countries would either continue to fight or reach a peaceful settlement.
A settlement was seen as more likely in Denmark (47%), Germany (40%), the United Kingdom and France (38%), and Italy (36%), while continued fighting was seen as a slightly more likely scenario in Spain (36%) and Sweden (35%).
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey
Austria has pledged to provide additional humanitarian support to Ukraine in the amount of EUR 8 million and will also provide EUR 2 million for the Ukrainian initiative Grain from Ukraine, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said.
“And today I can announce that we have committed to provide additional humanitarian support to Ukraine in the amount of EUR8 million: EUR5 million for the World Food Programme’s mine action program and EUR3 million for humanitarian assistance through international organizations working in Ukraine and Moldova,” said Schallenberg at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sibiga on Wednesday.
He also announced the allocation of additional funds for the Grain from Ukraine initiative.
“And I am pleased to announce that we will provide EUR2 million in addition to the EUR2 million allocated by the Austrian Development Agency for the Grain from Ukraine initiative, which I believe is important to reduce the impact of Putin’s war on global food security,” the minister said.
The foreign minister noted that at the bilateral level alone, his country provided EUR264 million in support to Ukraine, which was directed to humanitarian and financial assistance.
France will provide Ukraine with at least EUR60 million by the end of this year, according to Pierre Elbrun, the French President’s Special Envoy for Ukraine’s Relief and Recovery.
“As winter approaches, the situation is becoming critical – we must act now to quickly offer concrete energy solutions,” he wrote on social media X following a meeting of the G7+ Ministerial Group on Energy Support to Ukraine at the level of foreign ministers on the sidelines of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly on Monday evening.
At the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted that the G7+ countries have mobilized more than $4 billion to support Ukraine’s energy sector since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
In a statement following the G7+ ministerial meeting, the countries welcome further commitments of funding and in-kind support to cover the most urgent needs of the Ukrainian energy sector, including repairing damaged power plants and district heating systems, deploying new, distributed energy sources, emergency backup power for critical services, and passive protection of energy infrastructure.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with President of Estonia Alar Karis in Kyiv.
According to the press service of the President of Ukraine, Zelenskyy thanked Karis and his wife for participating in the First Ladies and Gentlemen Summit, which will take place in Kyiv today.
The President of Ukraine also noted Estonia’s decision to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually for the defense needs of our country. This is enshrined in the bilateral security agreement.
“We are grateful for your support in all spheres and a very important agreement on security cooperation between our countries. We are very pleased to have so many strategic partners,” the Head of State emphasized.
In addition, he thanked Estonia for its active participation in the restoration of Ukraine, in particular, for the projects already implemented in Zhytomyr region.
Particular attention was paid to Ukraine’s European integration. Zelenskyy noted Estonia’s significant expert support for Ukraine in the negotiation process.
The Swedish government has approved an additional SEK 500 million ($49 million) to support heating and electricity in Ukraine.
According to the Swedish government’s website, the new support is aimed at covering the needs of the most vulnerable people in the country. This new support will be provided in parallel with the extensive Swedish support already provided to Ukraine’s energy sector.
“Today, the government is allocating an additional SEK 500 million to support heating and electricity in Ukraine. Russia is increasingly targeting critical energy infrastructure. This new support will go to generate electricity for about 185,000 people and help support Ukrainian society, economy and business,” said Minister for International Cooperation and Foreign Trade Johan Forssell.
He emphasized that this is crucial for Ukraine’s resilience.
Minister of Energy, Business and Industry Ebba Busch noted that Sweden will continue to support Ukraine “as long as it takes”. “This SEK 500 million will be one of Sweden’s largest contributions to Ukraine’s energy supply and will help generate electricity for hospitals and thousands of Ukrainian homes,” she said.
The initiative includes two gas turbines for initial power generation. The production facility will be protected in a way that minimizes the devastating effects of Russian attacks.
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency will be primarily responsible for Sweden’s contribution. The project is a joint investment with the Ukrainian state energy company and other international financial institutions. The goal is for this production facility to start operating in 2025.
The World Bank’s Board of Directors has approved a new $415 million systemic project in Ukraine, “Making Education Accessible and Resilient in the Face of Crisis in Ukraine” (LEARN), aimed at improving primary and secondary education in Ukraine, which will reach one million students, teachers, and school staff.
“It is crucial to mitigate the impact of war on children, especially those from the most vulnerable families, by minimizing disruptions to the learning process,” Bob Sohm, World Bank Regional Director for Eastern Europe, said in a release on Saturday night.
It is specified that the LEARN program provides for measures aimed at improving general security conditions in schools, providing free transportation for vulnerable students, teacher training, textbook procurement, and improving governance in the education sector. The project also aims to help implement a comprehensive education reform in grades 1-12 known as the New Ukrainian School (NUS), which meets EU standards, the WB said.
“The LEARN project will help thousands of Ukrainian students return to protected learning environments,” Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said in the release.
It is specified that the project is being implemented using the financial instrument “Program-for-results” (PforR).
The Ministry of Finance notes that LEARN is aimed at improving the conditions for teaching and learning, which are implemented through subventions from the state budget to local budgets.
The WB notes that the initial funding for the LEARN program includes $235 million from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (IBRD) Assistance for Ukraine’s Necessary Credit Support (ADVANCE Ukraine) Trust Fund, $150 million from the International Development Association’s (IDA) Special Program for the Recovery of Ukraine and Moldova, and $30 million from the Ukraine Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Transformation Trust Fund (URTF). The program provides for results-based financing that can be scaled up as additional funds become available.
According to the release of the Ministry of Finance, the project agreement is expected to be signed in September 2024, and by the end of 2024, based on the achievement of pre-defined indicators, Ukraine will be able to receive $200 million to the general fund of the state budget.
The responsible executor of the PforR LEARN project in terms of supervision and coordination is the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. At the same time, the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine has been designated as the lead implementing agency, which will be responsible for the implementation of the LEARN project, its monitoring and evaluation.
