The war has led to an 85% drop in inbound tourism, which will lead to a decrease in revenues of more than $1 billion by 2024 and more than $12.7 billion by 2030, the press service of the Ukrainian Hotel & Resort Association (UHRA) reports.
Such data follows from the study “Economic Impact of the War on the Tourism and Hospitality Sector of Ukraine: Losses, Innovations and Resilience”, conducted with the support of the State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine (DART) in partnership with the UHRA, the Association of Inbound Tour Operators of Ukraine (AITOU), the All-Ukrainian Association of Guides (UAG), the Ukrainian Restaurant Association (URA) and the Ukrainian Culinary Association (UCA).
“Before the outbreak of full-scale war, Ukraine’s tourism sector was on a path of steady growth, contributing $1.6 billion to the national economy and providing 1.2 million jobs. The war has undermined this progress, but with coordinated recovery efforts and targeted international investment, the sector can rebound and once again become a vital engine of Ukraine’s economic recovery,” UHRA President Iryna Sidletska was quoted as saying in the release.
According to the study, it is expected that by the end of 2024, tourism revenues in Ukraine will be more than $1 billion below pre-war forecasts. Total revenue losses by 2030 are estimated at $12.7 billion.
At the same time, the number of jobs by the end of 2024 will be reduced by more than 60% compared to pre-war levels. Experts expect that by 2034, the total number of jobs in the industry will increase to 1 million, which is 540 thousand jobs less than in the pre-war scenario.
The tourism industry is forced to develop in the face of a shortage of investment. The amount of suspended foreign and domestic private investment is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.
GART Chairwoman Mariana Oleskiv emphasized that despite the ongoing war, Ukraine’s tourism industry is showing resilience.
“We are grateful to our partners for analyzing the macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian tourism industry, which confirmed that the priority chosen by the Agency – the development of domestic tourism – is correct, especially in conditions when we have almost lost outbound tourism, and inbound tourism, according to this study, has decreased by 85%. Our efforts have resulted in a steady increase in tax revenues in the tourism sector and an increase in hotel occupancy in regions that are relatively safe and popular with tourists,” Oleskiv said.
The report emphasizes the enormous potential of Ukraine’s tourism industry to contribute to the post-war economic recovery and achieve a key role as a generator of national GDP. The experts’ recommendations include investing in the restoration of war-damaged monuments and hospitality facilities; focusing on energy-efficient and green projects; supporting the retraining of displaced workers, veterans, and people with disabilities; and strengthening the promotion of domestic and regional tourism to stabilize the local economy.
Despite the enormous challenges, the authors of the report emphasize that with proper support, Ukraine’s tourism sector can gradually recover and become a powerful symbol of resilience, peace, and economic strength.
The full report will be available for download in October 2024 on the resources of the partners who participated in this study.
Representatives of the tourism industry paid UAH 616 million 391 thousand to the budget in the first quarter of 2024, which is 61% more than in the same period of 2023, when the budget received UAH 383 million 221 thousand, the press service of the State Agency for Tourism Development (DART) reports.
At the same time, they clarify that before the full-scale invasion in 2021, the state budget received UAH 629 million 135 thousand.
“The budget revenues for the first quarter of this year clearly demonstrate that tourism has not only adapted to the difficult working conditions during martial law, but is also developing, creating jobs and supporting local communities. Taxes from the tourism industry are an important part of the economy that is now working to support our army,” said DART Head Mariana Oleskiv, quoted in a press release.
The agency noted that in January-March, the total number of taxpayers engaged in tourism activities increased by 19% compared to the first quarter a year earlier. The number of legal entities increased by 6%, and individuals by 24%.
The largest share of state budget revenues (64%) was paid by hotels – UAH 395 million 194 thousand. This is 69% more than in the same period in 2023 (UAH 233 million 693 thousand) and 32% more than in the same period in 2022 (UAH 299 million 782 thousand). In the pre-war year of 2021, in January-March, the treasury received almost the same amount from hotels – UAH 394 million 576 thousand.
Tax revenues from the activities of tour operators have doubled – UAH 88 million 727 thousand compared to UAH 44 million 854 thousand for the same period last year. In 2021, the state treasury received UAH 47 million from tour operators.
In addition, tax revenues from the activities of travel agencies also increased – UAH 50 million 330 thousand compared to UAH 33 million 844 thousand for the same period in 2023 and UAH 46 million 238 thousand in January-March 2021).
In 2024, the share of tax paid by tourist centers and children’s recreation camps increased by 41%. In the first quarter, the budget received UAH 36 million 180 thousand of tax from these accommodation facilities, compared to UAH 25 million 653 thousand in the first three months of last year. However, compared to the same period in 2021, tax revenues fell by 70% from UAH 119 million 183 thousand.
There was an increase in taxes paid from campsites and parking lots for residential caravans – UAH 704 thousand against UAH 499 thousand. Although compared to 2021, taxes from these accommodation facilities are halved, the budget received UAH 1 million 535 thousand.
International tourism revenues reached $1.5 trillion in 2023, which means a full recovery to the level of pre-pandemic 2019 in nominal terms and by 97% adjusted for inflation, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism).
According to the organization, Europe received the highest revenues from international tourism – $660 billion, which is 7% more than in pre-pandemic 2019. Revenues in the Middle East increased by 33%. Last year, America recovered 96% of its pre-pandemic international tourism revenues, Africa – 95%, and the Asia-Pacific region – 78%.
According to UN Tourism, in 2023, GDP from tourism recovered to the level of 2019. It is estimated to have amounted to $3.3 trillion, or 3% of global GDP.
As noted, several destinations achieved outstanding results in terms of international tourism revenues in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2019. Among them are Serbia (plus 127%), Turkey (plus 82%), Pakistan (plus 72%), Tanzania (plus 62%), Portugal (plus 61%), Romania (plus 57%), Japan (plus 53%), Mongolia (plus 50%), Mauritius (plus 46%) and Morocco (plus 44%).
The Ukrainian travel industry responds to demand and changes to meet the needs of travelers. Thus, in all popular destinations, there are more opportunities for recreation with children, and the geography of departure points is expanding, both for bus and air tours. Join UP! tm tour operator has analyzed the main destinations and vacation formats that will be in demand this year.
Early start
Recent statistics show that tourists are more likely to start the summer season in the spring. Mostly we are talking about the Mediterranean countries: Turkey, Spain, Cyprus, and the Greek islands.
At this time, the weather in this region is almost summer-like – the average air temperature is +25°C and the water temperature is +19-20°C, and prices are lower and there are fewer tourists. Accordingly, tourists have a better chance of booking even the most popular hotels in high season and taking excursions that are already available in the spring months.
In addition, spring is a period of flowering, which makes the southern landscapes even more interesting. Another reason why traveling in spring is gradually becoming more popular is the rise in summer temperatures. Those who do not like excessive heat plan trips in April and May.
Leaders of queries
The list of the most popular vacation destinations remains unchanged – Turkey (from 8026 UAH*) and Egypt (from 17 281 UAH*). The countries differ in climate and nature, but are similar in their wide range of all-inclusive hotels. At the same time, both countries have a wide range of excursions, so even when returning to the resort, you can get new impressions again and again.
European resorts are also in great demand: Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Montenegro, and Spain. The share of tourists choosing these countries is growing every year. At the same time, each country has its own specifics. For example, Albania (from 17,027 UAH*) has the cheapest all-inclusive format for its region, Cyprus (from 17,689 UAH*) has an active nightlife, which is why it is popular with young people, and Crete (from 10,292 UAH*) is popular for excursions and natural locations, Montenegro (from 16,008 UAH*) is more often traveled by those who like to travel around the country, and Spain (from 26,958 UAH*) is appreciated for its combination of urban recreation, beautiful landscapes and amusement parks for children.
Tunisia (from 18,585 UAH*) is also worth mentioning, as the demand for it has been growing steadily in recent years. If last year Join UP! tm offered tours to this resort only with departures from Romania and Poland, now trips are also available from popular airports in Poland and Moldova and even Lithuania.
Tunisia attracts with a combination of high service (the country has a large concentration of hotels of global chains), beautiful beaches and a rich excursion program covering the Sahara, Carthage and the town of Sidi Bou Said, which is known for its traditional architecture in blue and white colors and spectacular sea views.
Exotic destinations
Traveling to distant countries – from equatorial Africa to the islands in the Indian Ocean or the coast of North America – has always been a relatively small but stable segment of demand. The Dominican Republic, the Maldives, Mexico, Tanzania (Zanzibar), and Sri Lanka attract many people, but the price often remains a deterrent.
However, recently, some tourists have been booking trips to these countries in the summer, when it is the low season. Prices during this period are much lower, and it is also possible to get into hotels that are usually unavailable in winter due to a significant increase in the number of tourists.
The price of traveling in summer is different from the main season, because hotels in this season make a discount of 20% to 50%. Thus, you can fly to the Maldives for a week from 63,948 UAH* per person, to Zanzibar from 61,551 UAH* per person (7 nights in a hotel), to Sri Lanka from 58,244 UAH* per person (7 nights in a hotel), to the Dominican Republic from 86,225 UAH* per person (9 nights in a hotel).
Vacations with children
Women with children have been one of the most active categories of travelers in recent years. This has led to some changes in the market: now most destinations are adapted to accommodate families with children. This applies to suitable hotels with animation and amusement parks, as well as excursion programs.
Popular air tours to Turkey for two adults with a child start at 22,406 UAH*. A trip to Montenegro for a similar number of tourists will cost from 47,590 UAH*, and to the islands: from 27,998 UAH* in Crete (Greece) and from 47,899 UAH* in Cyprus. A trip for two adults with a child to the Maldives will cost from 187,291 UAH*.
There is also an option to travel by bus. Thus, a trip to Bulgaria for two adults with a child will cost from 17,865 UAH*. You can go there from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, and Kyiv. You can also travel to Turkey by bus: for two adults with a child, the trip will cost from 27,438 UAH*. Buses depart from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Kyiv. It is worth noting that the service on board the buses is expanding every season: the opportunity to pre-order meals, use online cinema services, and much more is added.
“Ukrainians have learned to coexist with the war as much as possible. Parents work, children study, and rest in the summer. In addition, for many people summer is the sea, and since such a vacation is almost impossible in Ukraine, we are seeing a positive trend in the demand for foreign travel,” comments Kateryna Artyukh, Head of Product Marketing at Join UP! tm. – Of course, we are still far from the indicators of 2021, but compared to the previous year, we expect an increase in bookings by 30%. Ukrainians need a reboot to stay strong for the long term, and traveling is one of the best opportunities to stay safe and get new experiences.”
* – all prices are quoted at the exchange rate as of 19.04.2024 per person, based on double occupancy.
JOIN UP!, TOURISM, travel industry, UKRAINE, vacation with children
Tourism enterprises paid UAH 2 billion 49.462 million in taxes in 2023, which is 32% more than in the previous year, but 8% less than in 2021, said Mariana Oleskiv, head of the State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine, during a final press conference on Wednesday.
“After a very stressful year of 2022, people just needed time to recover, to reboot psychologically, and it was by traveling, visiting tourist destinations, that they achieved their goals. Interest in their culture is realized through travel,” Oleskiv said.
Hotels accounted for 63.6% of tax revenues, tour operators for 10.1%, other accommodation facilities for 9.7%, and travel agencies for 9.4%. At the same time, the total number of taxpayers in 2023 amounted to 16645, which is 9% less than in 2022 and 25% less than in 2021.
In January-July 2023, international tourism recovered by 84% from the pre-pandemic level of 2019, and an almost complete recovery of the industry is possible by the end of the year, according to the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
From January to July, 700 million tourist trips were made worldwide, 43% more than in the same period last year. July was the busiest month: 145 million tourist trips were made during this time, which is about 20% of the total for seven months.
“But as the tourism sector recovers, it also needs to adapt. Extreme weather events and overtourism emphasize the need to create a more inclusive, resilient sector to not only ensure the recovery of tourism, but also to redefine it,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili.
Among the regions of the world, the Middle East, Europe and Africa showed the best results of recovery over the past seven months. According to UNWTO, the Middle East received 20% more tourists than in 2019. European countries have recovered by 91%, driven by strong demand for travel among residents of the region and US citizens. In Africa, the number of tourists reached 92%, in America – 87% of the level of 2019.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the recovery accelerated and reached 61% of pre-pandemic levels after many destinations reopened in late 2022 and early 2023.
“The results show that international tourism is still on the right track and will reach 80-95% of pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The recovery will continue in September-December, albeit at a more moderate pace due to weak demand and a lack of air routes, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where recovery is still at a moderate level,” the organization explained.
The UNWTO expects that the opening of China and other Asian destinations will continue to stimulate travel both within the region and to other parts of the world.
At the same time, the difficult economic situation continues to hamper the recovery of international tourism in 2023. Persistent inflation and rising oil prices have led to higher transportation and accommodation costs. This may affect tourist spending in the remainder of the year as they increasingly seek value for money, travel closer to home, and take shorter trips.
