The World Bank has raised its projection for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 to 3.8%, while early January it estimated the prospects for recovery at 3%.
According to the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2021: Data, Digitalization, and Governance, the forecast for GDP growth in 2022 has been worsened to 3%, compared to 3.1% in January.
The World Bank said that only a partial recovery in GDP growth of 3.8% is expected in 2021, given high uncertainty regarding the rollout of the vaccine and the slow pace of structural reforms to address bottlenecks to investment and to safeguard macroeconomic sustainability. The GDP growth projection of 3.8% is also underpinned by positive base effects in agriculture and processing industry, the World Bank said.
In addition, the World Bank expects inflation this and next year at 5%, in 2023 – 5.8%.
The current account deficit in 2021 will be 1.3%, in the next two years – 2.8% and 3.3%, respectively, World Bank analysts predict.
The net inflow of foreign direct investment in 2021 should increase by 2.4%, the next year – by 2.6%, and in 2023 it is expected the growth to triple and amount to 6.2%.
At the same time, the World Bank predicts a reduction in public debt in relation to GDP from 63.2% in 2020 to 62.4% in 2021, as well as 59.7% and 57.8% in the next two years.
According to the bank’s expectations, after a 7.4% decline in 2020, Ukrainian exports will grow by 3.4% this year, and by 2% and 4.4% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. As for imports, after a decline of 11.5% last year, this indicator is projected to grow by 6.8% this year, 5% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023.
As reported by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product in 2020 fell by 4% after four years of growth.
