Due to the war and changes in the external situation, the cost of Ukrainian timber has almost halved, warehouses are full, the processor dictates conditions on the stock exchanges, head of the State Forestry Agency of Ukraine Yuriy Bolohovets described this new situation on the market in a column in NV Business.
“Taking into account the depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar, the cost is almost halved. Instead of a seller’s market, we are seeing the formation of a buyer’s market. The share of reductions is growing on the exchanges: the processor is already dictating the terms,” he wrote.
Bolohovets clarified that out of the volume of unprocessed wood put up for auction, on average, 60% can be sold on the first attempt, and 50% – processed – 50%.
In his opinion, the reasons for this transformation of the market are the end of the era of “covid” repairs in the United States and other countries, the rise in the price of mortgages and the reduction in construction, the decrease in demand for building materials, in particular, Europeans do not invest in housing due to a jump in lending rates and the risk of war.
“In China, a crisis is brewing in the field of housing construction. Against this background, the Celestial Empire is flooded with a stream of cheap timber from Russia, which is ready to give up its own resources at a big discount. The situation is no better for us in other Asian markets,” the head of the State Forest Agency explained.
He added that the Turkish market, in addition to the Russian one, is also “overwhelmed” with Belarusian products, which then, bypassing the sanctions, enter the European market.
The head of the State Forestry Agency stressed that the main factor in the negative trends in Ukraine is the war and the blocking of ports, without which the country cannot export raw materials to Asia.
“The alternative export route through Gdansk is frankly unprofitable, logistics eats up all income,” Bolokhovets stated.
At the same time, according to him, as a result of the program of anti-crisis measures, forestry enterprises in June reached the volume of harvesting at the level of 90-92% of the previous year. In particular, enterprises in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the northern part of the Kiev region have resumed full-fledged work, logistics are being established to raise sales prices in problem regions.
The head of the State Forestry Agency specified that according to the results of the first half of the year, harvesting decreased by 20% (the largest drop in Kyiv, as well as Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv regions, where shelling or hostilities continue). However, due to the transition to auctions for all types of products, revenue increased by UAH 1.45 billion compared to the first half of 2021: 4.4 million cubic meters of raw wood were sold. m in the amount of UAH 8.5 billion, which allowed to increase taxes by UAH 1.2 billion and net profit from UAH 215 million to UAH 350 million.
Speaking about the steps being taken to contain the situation, Bolohovets announced a shift in emphasis to logging, which is in great demand, and primarily to hardwoods: if an almost stable increase in value is recorded for oak during trading on the stock exchange, sometimes by 30-60%, then pine and spruce are bought at a price close to the starting one.
According to him, production will be reoriented to more popular types of products, such as blanks for euro pallets.
He added that sales of firewood are on the rise, as there is a “crazy” demand for firewood, pellets and other raw materials for heating in Europe amid declining interest in construction timber.
The head of the State Forest Agency also called for a more active fight against sanctioned wood from Russia and Belarus on the European market, for revitalizing the domestic market by restoring damaged housing and building temporary timber, which can then be reused.
