Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the previous year’s level — about 1.748 billion tons, after a 1.6% decline in 2024. These figures are given in the short-term forecast of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) — Short Range Outlook (SRO).
In 2026, according to experts, demand will grow by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by recovery in Europe, India, and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
According to Worldsteel’s forecast, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, demand for steel will decline by 5.2% in 2025, to 56.1 million tons, and by another 1.7% in 2026, to 55.2 million tons.
At the same time, India will retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing steel market, with growth of around 9% annually in 2025-2026. Already next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.
In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will increase by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, driven by active economic development in ASEAN countries, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Africa, steel consumption is growing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 41 million tons in 2025 — the highest level in the last decade. Growth is driven by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.
Andriy Ozeychuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center and Director of Rauta, commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian steel sector.
“The Ukrainian steel market in 2025–2026 will be shaped by the recovery of domestic demand in construction and machine building, as well as the growth of exports of metal structures to the EU. We predict that demand for steel in Ukraine may grow by 6-8% in 2026 due to infrastructure and industrial recovery projects,” Ozeychuk said.
According to him, the steel construction sector will be the driver of this growth:
“The use of metal structures will accelerate the restoration of logistics, industrial, and infrastructure facilities.”
Ozeychuk also stressed that the launch of joint programs with European partners in the field of “green” metallurgy, where Ukraine already has its first pilot initiatives for the production of steel with a low carbon footprint, could give the industry an additional boost.
According to the forecast, demand for steel in the EU+UK region will increase by 1.3% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of increased investment in infrastructure and defense amid lower inflation and improved household incomes.
In the US, Worldsteel expects steel consumption to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival in housing construction, and private investment.
In China, steel demand will continue to decline, by approximately 2% in 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market. In 2026, the rate of decline will slow to 1% as the construction sector is expected to bottom out.
Worldsteel warns that a more challenging global trade environment and financial pressure on local authorities could further limit infrastructure investment and reduce demand.
According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Manufacturers Association (UNESID) and chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, the organization is “cautiously optimistic” about the market outlook:
“Despite trade disputes and uncertainty, we believe that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026,” the expert said.
He added that this will be facilitated by the resilience of the global economy, growth in infrastructure investment, and easing financial conditions. At the same time, the sector continues to be pressured by high costs, trade barriers, and geopolitical risks.
Worldsteel’s forecast emphasizes that the decline in demand in China is offset by strong growth in India and developing countries, where a new center of global steel production is emerging.
In addition, the protective measures introduced by the European Union — reducing duty-free import quotas and increasing customs duties to 50% — may change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
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In August this year, Ukrainian steelmakers increased steel production by 64.5% year-on-year to 602 thousand tons from 366 thousand tons.
At the same time, Ukraine took 20th place in the ranking of 63 countries that are major global producers of this product, compiled by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
According to Worldsteel, in August 2023, half of the top ten countries, except for Japan, South Korea, Germany, Turkey and Vietnam, recorded an increase in steel production compared to August 2022.
The top ten steel producing countries in August are as follows: China (86.41 million tons, up 3.2% by August 2022), India (11.904 million tons, up 17.4%), Japan (7.146 million tons, down 2.9%), the United States (6.980 million tons, up 1.1%), and the Russian Federation (6.4 million tons, up 8.9%), South Korea (5.583 million tons, down 5.9%), Germany (2.844 million tons, down 1%), Turkey (2.756 million tons, down 2.9%), Brazil (2.719 million tons, down 5.9%) and Vietnam (1.6 million tons, down 0.1%).
Overall, in August this year, steel production increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 152.619 million tons.
For the first eight months of 2023, the top ten steel-producing countries are as follows: China (712.930 million tons, up 2.6%), India (92.209 million tons, up 10.5%), Japan (58.366 million tons, down 3.8%), the United States (53.830 million tons, down 1.9%), and the Russian Federation (50.796 million tons, up 3.9%), South Korea (44.969 million tons, down 2.3%), Germany (24.328 million tons, down 4.2%), Turkey (21.599 million tons, down 12.1%), Brazil (21.335 million tons, down 8.3%), and Iran (19.672 million tons, down 1.1%).
In total, 63 countries produced 1 billion 256.378 million tons of steel in January-August, up 0.2% compared to the same period in 2022.
At the same time, Ukraine produced 4.032 million tons of steel in the first eight months of 2023, which is 22.3% lower than in January-August 2022. The country ranks 23rd in the first eight months of 2023.
As reported, in 2022, the top ten steel-producing countries were as follows: China (1.013 billion tons, down 2.1%), India (124.720 million tons, up 5.5%), Japan (89.235 million tons, -7.4%), the United States (80.715 million tons, -5.9%), and the Russian Federation (71.5 million tons, -7.2%), South Korea (65.865 million tons, -6.5%), Germany (36.849 million tons, -8.4%), Turkey (35.134 million tons, -12.9%), Brazil (33.972 million tons, -5.8%) and Iran (30.593 million tons, +8%).
In 2022, Ukraine ranked 23rd with the production of 6.263 million tons of steel (minus 70.7%).
In total, 64 countries produced 1 billion 831.467 million tons of steel in 2022, which is 4.3% less than in 2021.
