In the US and the UK, the proportion of respondents who consider the outbreak of a new world war by 2031 to be “likely” or “very likely” has increased, according to a poll published by Politico and conducted by the research company Public First.
According to the poll, 43% of respondents in the UK believe this, compared to 30% in March 2025, and 46% in the US, compared to 38% a year earlier.
The survey was conducted on February 6-9, 2026, in the US, Canada, the UK, France, and Germany; approximately 2,000 adult respondents were surveyed in each country (10,289 in total), with a stated margin of error of approximately ±2% per country.
The article also notes that more than 40% of respondents in Western countries generally consider the scenario of a “third world war” in the next five years to be more likely, and support for increased defense spending declines significantly when it comes to compromises such as tax increases, increased public debt, or cuts to other budget items.
