Oil prices rose moderately on Monday morning after last week’s gains.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.36 (0.54%) to $67.35 per barrel at 8:18 a.m. Last Friday, the contract rose by $0.62 (0.93%) to $66.99 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) electronic trading platform rose by $0.36 (0.57%) to $63.05 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.32 (0.51%) to $62.69 per barrel.
Both brands rose in price by more than 1% over the past week.
Market participants are following news of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including large refineries and export terminals.
“Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could reduce exports of Russian oil and refined products,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
IG analyst Tony Sicamore noted that if Ukraine continues to attack Russian export infrastructure, global oil price forecasts will be revised upward.
Meanwhile, data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by two last week to 417. The number of gas rigs remained unchanged at 118.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday morning on fears of a reduction in global supplies in the event of new sanctions against Russia.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.48 (0.73%) to $66.5 per barrel as of 8:16 a.m. On Monday, the contract rose by $0.52 (0.79%) to $66.02 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.44 (0.71%) to $62.7 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.39 (0.63%) to $62.26 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump said last weekend that he was ready to introduce a second phase of restrictive measures against Russia. Meanwhile, the European Union is discussing a 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which will affect a number of banks and energy companies, Bloomberg writes, citing sources. According to them, some of the measures may be agreed with the US for the first time since Trump became president.
Meanwhile, ministers from eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary oil production cuts agreed last weekend to increase production in October by 137,000 bpd. This will be the first step in a partial return to the market of voluntary restrictions of 1.65 million bpd, which were to remain in effect until the end of 2026.
“The market priced in the production increase last week and is now watching to see if global fuel inventories start to rise, which could mean a reduction in spare production capacity in the future,” said Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Such a rally, driven by a sense of relief, may briefly slow down the bearish trend, but only for a few days.”
Oil prices are rising on Monday morning as traders assess OPEC+’s decision and Washington’s new statements on sanctions against Russia amid Russia’s continued full-scale military aggression against Ukraine.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.83 (1.27%) to $66.33 per barrel as of 7:15 a.m. On Friday, the contract fell by $1.49 (2.22%) to $65.50 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.77 (1.24%) to $62.64 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts fell by $1.61 (2.54%) to $61.87 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent and WTI futures fell in price by more than 3% on fears of an oversupply in the market if OPEC+ countries increase production.
Ministers from eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary oil production cuts approved an increase in production by 137,000 bpd in October at a meeting on September 7. The decision was made in view of the stable outlook for the global economy and favorable market conditions, reflected in low oil inventories, according to a statement from the alliance.
This will be the first tranche of a partial return to the market of voluntary restrictions of 1.65 million bpd, which were to remain in effect until the end of 2026. Now, the plan is to get rid of them by August.
Meanwhile, the production increase agreed upon over the weekend turned out to be less significant than previous ones.
“The moderate increase in OPEC+ production has brought relief to the market,” wrote Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa, adding that the increase in production had already been factored into prices, and now there is a technical rebound.
“Expectations of a supply reduction due to possible new US sanctions against Russia are also providing support,” the expert noted.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was ready to impose a second phase of restrictive measures against Russia. Trump considers the additional tariffs imposed on India to be the first phase of anti-Russian measures. Washington justified these measures by saying that Delhi buys oil from Russia.
The price of Brent crude oil was falling on Tuesday after a rise the day before, while WTI, which was not traded on Monday, was stable.
The oil market has remained in a narrow price range of around $11/bbl since early 2023. On the one hand, it is supported by expectations of increased demand in China after the lifting of quarantine restrictions and fears of supply reduction on the market due to the reduction of production by Russia. On the other hand – the market fears the weakening of the U.S. economy amid tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed), said Bloomberg.
The price of April Brent crude futures on London’s CE Futures exchange is $83.08 a barrel by 7:10 a.m. Tuesday, down $0.99 (1.18%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $1.07 (1.3%) to $84.07 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for April oil grew by $0.03 (0.04%) to $76.58 per barrel at electronic trades of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. There were no major trades on the NYMEX on Monday due to a holiday in the U.S. (Presidents’ Day).
March contracts, which expire at the close of Tuesday’s session, are stable at $76.34 a barrel.
The big event this week is the release of the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, in which the benchmark interest rate was raised by 25 basis points.
“Any hawkish signals in the Fed meeting minutes will be a catalyst for lower oil prices,” notes IG Asia Pte Ltd. analyst Yep June Rong. The market, according to him, is trying to go up amid improving prospects for supply due to the economic recovery in China.
In addition, experts see signals of increased demand in India: refinery workload in the country in January rose to its maximum level for five years, notes Bloomberg.
