The U.S. Department of Agriculture has lowered its forecast for global rice production in 2022-2023 due to deteriorating crop prospects in China and a number of other leading medium-grain rice-producing countries.
Global rice production is expected to be 502.97 million tons, lower than the December forecast (503.27 million tons) and previous years’ results (514.95 million tons in the 2021-2022 season), the agency said in a review.
Significant production declines in the 2022-2023 marketing year are expected in major medium-grain rice producing and exporting countries, including the United States, Australia, and the European Union.
In the U.S., due to drought weather in California, production of medium- and short-grain rice could drop 31% from the 2021-2022 crop year and be at a record low since the 1972-1973 season, the nation’s Agriculture Department forecasts. Rice prices on the domestic market have jumped 50% from last season’s level. Export prices are also on the rise, which could result in exports being the lowest on record since 1998-1999. Historically, the largest export markets for U.S. rice have been Japan and South Korea. They remain key markets as required under the WTO, but limited volumes have been tendered in recent tenders due to declining interest from suppliers, given reduced supply and rising U.S. prices.
The country’s rice production forecast was lowered to 5.09 million tons from the December estimate of 5.22 million tons, exports to 2.15 million tons from 2.25 million tons.
In the EU in the season 2022-2023 is expected to fall by 25% rice production, the figure may be the lowest since the season 1984-1985. The main producers of rice in the EU (80% of the volume) are Spain and Italy, and both countries have faced severe drought and lack of water for crops. Rice production in the EU is expected to be 1.29 million tons compared to 1.72 million tons last season, exports will decrease slightly (to 400 thousand tons from 440 thousand tons). At the same time, imports of rice to the EU may turn out to be a record, amounting to 2.7 million tons. Historically, long-grain rice has historically accounted for the bulk of supplies, but in recent years the share of medium-grain rice imports has been growing.
China, which is the world’s largest producer of medium-grain rice, could cut production to 145.95 million tons in the 2022-2023 crop year (the previous estimate was 147 million tons from 148.99 million tons last season. Despite some decrease in harvest, prices are likely to remain competitive in the world market, given the impressive stocks. The forecast for Chinese rice exports for the 2022-2023 season is 2.2 million tons (estimate unchanged). The main importers of Chinese rice are Asian and African countries.
The world’s largest rice exporter, India, could deliver 20.5 million tons to world markets this season, the forecast was raised from the December estimate of 20 million tons). Also, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for India’s rice production by 1 million tons to 125 million tons.
Rice export estimates from Thailand and Vietnam remained unchanged at 8.5 million tons and 7.4 million tons, respectively.
The forecast for global rice exports in 2022-2023 was raised to 54.38 million tons from 53.76 million tons.
