In 2030, Ukrainian biomethane producers will be able to supply up to 1 billion cubic meters of this fuel to the EU, says Maciej Zaniewicz, Green Deal Ukraine project expert, senior analyst at Forum Energii (Poland), who is a co-author of the study “Potential for Cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in the Field of Biomethane” by Green Deal Ukraine and the Ukrainian Climate Office.
“In our opinion, as well as in the opinion of Ukrainian analysts, the real volumes of biomethane production in Ukraine can be plus or minus 0.5% of EU demand. We are talking about about 1 billion cubic meters of biomethane in 2030,” Zanevych said in an interview with theInterfax-Ukraine energy project Energoreforma.
According to him, the most interesting thing in the study on the potential for cooperation in this area was that Ukrainian biomethane has already found buyers at market prices in the EU.
“At the same time, demand in the EU is so high that Ukrainian imports will not hinder the development of the industry within the EU,” the expert believes.
At the same time, he notes that Ukrainian biomethane “will not become some kind of export hit for Ukraine and a panacea for the EU.”
“What I mean is that it will not fully replace natural gas imports to the EU. Yes, it is an important component for diversifying gas supplies, but it will not completely replace imports,” Zanevych explained.
He also drew attention to the risk that pro-Russian circles will try to sow disinformation, “as it was with the trucks, as it was with the farmers.” “That allegedly Ukrainian biomethane producers will displace European producers. That’s why we wanted to make a reliable analysis based on objective data and show how it can actually be,” the expert said.
As reported, the first batch of Ukrainian biomethane of 67 thousand cubic meters was exported on February 7, 2025 by Vitagro, an energy holding whose plant with a capacity of 3 million cubic meters of biomethane per year operates in Khmelnytsky region. The exports were made to Germany.
On February 11, MHP’s biomethane plant Oril-Leader (Dnipropetrovs’k region) exported 27.4 thousand cubic meters of biomethane and became the second Ukrainian company to do so. MHP exported biomethane via gas pipelines across the Ukrainian-Polish border to Germany. The buyer was Vitol. The capacity of Oril-Leader is 11 million cubic meters per year.
The Gals Agro agricultural holding has built a biomethane plant with a capacity of 3 million cubic meters in Chernihiv region. The company has already been connected to the grid and is preparing to export its products.
At the Ukrainian Investment Congress in Kyiv in early March, Georgii Geletukha, Chairman of the Board of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine (BAU), said that Ukraine could soon become the main supplier of biomethane to the European Union, with the share of Ukrainian products in the European market reaching 20% in the future.
Geletukha emphasized that Europe aims to consume approximately 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane in 2030, while European production is currently estimated at 3 billion cubic meters. Given the current market trends, the EU will be able to increase its own production to 20 billion cubic meters of biomethane within five years.
The expert explained such a delay in the development of the biomethane market in Europe by the lack of large free areas of agricultural land and, accordingly, the inability to produce the necessary amount of raw materials for processing.
He drew attention to Europe’s new plans for 2030, which include the production and consumption of 100 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2050. However, it will not reach this figure because of the lack of raw materials, the expert believes.
According to his assumption, if Ukraine were to produce up to 15 billion cubic meters of biomethane now, the EU would “buy everything with a bang.”
According to him, in Ukraine, the range of biomethane producers and potential exporters will expand in 2025. They will be joined by another MHP company, Teofipol Energy Company, and Józefów-Mykolaiv Biogas Company. In total, Ukrainian facilities will produce 111 million cubic meters of biomethane per year.
At a cost of EUR900 per 1 thousand cubic meters of biomethane produced from crop waste or from animal waste, including manure or litter, at EUR1100-1200 per 1 thousand cubic meters, Ukraine will be able to receive up to EUR100 billion annually from exporting these products to the EU, Geletukha predicts.
The study on the prospects of cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in the field of biomethane is available at https://greendealukraina.org/uk/products/analytical-reports/the-potential-of-ukraine-eu-biomethane-cooperation
