Ukraine currently has 22 million tons of oilseed processing capacity, and oil extraction plants (OEP) are still under construction, so processing volumes could reach 25 million tons in the near future, but it will not be easy to secure raw materials, said First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky.
“According to estimates, we have up to 22 million tons of capacity (OEZ – IF-U), and (OEZ – IF-U) are still under construction, which means there will be 22-25 million. Frankly speaking, it will not be easy to achieve such a volume (of raw materials for processing enterprises – IF-U).
Purely from an agronomic and agrotechnological point of view,” he commented at a meeting of the Trend&Hedge Club on the parliament’s decision to impose duties on soybean and rapeseed exports. Vysotsky explained that farmers would not be able to increase soybean production in a year by irrigating an additional 1 million hectares.
Such an investment pays off within 5-15 years and is a “long story.” Although such an expansion would significantly improve the situation for processors.
The deputy minister also does not see any prospects for significant potential for expanding areas and increasing yields for rapeseed.
“It may not be 3-3.5 million tons (Ministry of Agrarian Policy’s forecast for rapeseed production for the 2025 season – IF-U), it may be 5 million tons, as in 2022, or 4.8 million tons, as in 2023,” he stated, noting that it is difficult to talk about increasing production to 8-10 million tons per year, although there is land, plots, and all the necessary areas for cultivation.
According to Vysotsky, Ukrainian farmers can grow not 12 million tons of sunflower seeds in the 2025 season, but 15 million tons, with the maximum yield of the crop potentially reaching 25 million tons.
“This will be the ceiling, I declare, that can be grown within the controlled territories of Ukraine. Within the territories controlled by Ukraine, it is realistic to reach more than 23 million tons from the current 20.5 million tons (sunflower production – IF-U). If everything goes well, it could reach 25 million tons. But this is impossible in the coming years,” he explained.
The first deputy minister stressed that the processing industry has grown more than it can be supplied with raw materials in the period up to 2030.
“From a logical point of view, the seller’s market should remain in the country, but the issue of purchasing raw materials for processing should not be so (acute – IF-U),” he concluded.
As reported, at its meeting on July 16, the Verkhovna Rada supported draft law No. 13134 on the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans, colza seeds, and rapeseed (crushed and uncrushed) with an annual reduction of 1% until 2030, to a level of 5%.
According to Vysotsky, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasts oilseed production in the 2025 season at 20.5 million tons, including rapeseed at 3 million tons and soybeans at 5.7 million tons. The sunflower harvest in the southern regions is under threat due to drought and may be less than 13 million tons.
