Ukraine will produce about 100,000 tons of nitrate in August and reach a record 220,000+ tons for all types of nitrogen fertilizers, the highest level since March 2022, according to industry analytical agency Infoindustria.
According to the report, growing demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU and Asian markets allows Ukrainian producers to hope for continued demand over the next three months.
“Thanks to successful nitrogen fertilizer sales in June and July, Ostchem was able to secure orders ahead of September, so it is now important to turn on production to the maximum. The task before the two plants is not insignificant, because, according to various calculations, the market for two months could have already sold from 120 to 150 thousand tons of nitrate and 60-70 thousand tons of urea, not to mention UAN and other fertilizers, demand for which is not yet fully sufficient – autumn field work in Ukraine continues,” the report says.
The plants in Cherkassy and Rivne are expected to produce up to 100,000 tons of nitrate in August. Cherkassy “Azot” will fulfill the maximum plan for urea and will load UAN by 60%, and “Rivneazot” will be able to launch limestone nitrate in the second half of August. So, in general, the plants will produce 220-225 thousand tons of products – an absolute record for the last 530 days of the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, Infoindustria analysts note that Odessa Port Plant and Dniprazot may be launched in September, which will bring additional volumes of nitrogen fertilizers to the country’s market. The enterprises will compete for the consumption-limited Ukrainian market and try their hand at the global market.
“Those producers who will not have time to sell nitrogen on the domestic market in August (when agroholdings buy) will be forced to hold it until February (when small and medium-sized agribusinesses will buy). Another sales option is to supply nitrogen for export. It is this option that will be of interest to everyone from September 2023. Fertilizer market conditions were complicated by Russia’s withdrawal from the “grain deal”, which affects the price level of agricultural products,” analysts predict.
Fertilizer market experts expect that due to a good harvest in 2023, if the crop is successfully sold, farmers have every chance to buy more fertilizers for the 2024 season.
