Commercial banks in Ukraine in 2024 will focus on the implementation of their programs of car loans, mortgages and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
This opinion was expressed by Elena Dmitrieva, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, in her comments to Interfax-Ukraine.
“Significant reduction of the discount rate in 2023 from 25% to 15% allowed banks to attract cheaper resources, restore credit programs frozen by the war and introduce fundamentally new areas of lending. Under the most favorable economic conditions in 2024, we should expect further reduction of the discount rate to 14-12%. As a consequence, in 2024 (at banks) the reduction of rates depending on the type of loan, the term of its payment and down payment may be from 2% to 4%,” – said Dmitrieva.
She recalled that since the second half of the year, the average reduction in interest rates on bank loans depending on the term of repayment and the size of the down payment has already amounted to 4%. In particular, rates on mortgage loans have fallen by an average of 3% (mainly we are talking about loans under partnership programs of developers and banks in the primary housing market), rates on car loans for new cars have fallen by 3-5%, and rates on consumer loans for the purchase of consumer goods have fallen by an average of 4%.
“The request of citizens for one or another type of credit on acceptable terms is almost inexhaustible. In 2024, any positive changes in credit conditions will be predetermined solely by economic factors,” emphasized Elena Dmitrieva.
In 2024, an important component of credit development will remain the participation of commercial banks in the implementation of a number of government credit programs, such as lending to small and medium-sized enterprises “5-7-9”, “Affordable factoring” (collateral-free financing for micro, small and medium-sized businesses with deferred payment at a compensatory rate of 13% per annum for up to 360 days), programs for energy modernization of houses “Energodom”, preferential mortgage “eOsel”, as well as the development of special compensatory programs with local authorities to reimburse a part of the loan amount.
In particular, the Globus Bank under the Energodom program expects to issue loans for more than UAH 200 million, of which more than 70% will be for partnership programs for reimbursement of condominiums’ expenses.
Dmitrieva predicts a gradual transformation of the state preferential programs “5-7-9” and “eOsel”. In particular, the “5-7-9” program will be gradually extended to regions with high military risks and will concern those industries that have not yet recovered from the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.
“The state budget for 2024 envisages more than UAH 18 billion for compensation of interest rates of the “5-7-9” program. However, most of these funds may go to repay the debt of the program manager – the Entrepreneurship Development Fund, because the debt to banks participating in the program is already up to UAH 5 billion. We expect that “5-7-9″ will be significantly narrowed, and loans under the program will be more point”, – said Dmitrieva.
At the same time, according to her assessment, the share of investment loans will gradually increase – for the purchase of fixed business assets (special technical means, motor vehicles, medical transport, production equipment, etc.). “It is expected that the share of such loans will make up to 30% of all loans issued,” Dmitrieva said.
The effectiveness of the eOsela soft mortgage program next year will depend on the volume of financing and popularization of the program among housing developers (activation of the program in residential projects at the construction stage).
Dmitrieva noted that compared to June 2023, when more than 490 mortgages were issued, the program’s activity has almost doubled (currently, about 800-900 loans are issued monthly), but it is extremely important to increase the program’s activity by at least 1.5 times, to 1.4-1.5 thousand loans per month, in 2024.
It is important to increase the number of financial institutions that are partners of the program, which will allow a wider range of citizens to take advantage of the preferential mortgage, as well as increase the “weight” of lending in the portfolio of commercial banks (currently, 7 commercial banks participate in the program), as well as intensify lending to facilities under construction, as well as expanding to townhouses and private houses.
According to her estimates, it is possible to increase from the current 1% to 25% the share of loans issued under the aHouse program for the purchase of housing under construction, but for the preferential mortgage to work in the primary market, the will of the developers themselves is needed, as well as the reformatting of their sales systems to meet legislative innovations to protect the rights of investors-buyers of housing.
“18 developers have already been accredited to participate in the eHouse program, which builds only 3-5% of the number of objects whose construction began before the full-scale invasion and continues in a slow mode, but without signs of “frozen” construction. We expect that in 2024 the number of residential complexes under construction accredited to participate in the program will increase by at least 2-2.5 times. After all, this is a direct investment in further construction, in the development of the industry in general, which is very important during the war,” summarized Dmitrieva.
Globus Bank was registered in 2007. According to the NBU, as of April 11, 2023, the bank’s shareholders were Elena Silnyagina (100%), Dmitry Polkovsky (16.198866%), Yevgeny Varyagin (9.899307%), Sergey Mamedov (9.899307%), Andrey Pinchuk (9.899307%) and Taras Lisovoy (3.599748%), who indirectly own the authorized capital.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, as of September 1, 2023, Globus was ranked 24th (UAH 9.07 billion) among 60 banks operating in the country in terms of total assets.
