The government maintains its forecast of 7% growth in Ukrainian exports in 2025, despite a smaller-than-expected harvest of late crops this year, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said.
“This is an absolutely objective, I would even say trivial forecast. Obviously, there may be a more optimistic forecast,” he told Interfax-Ukraine on the sidelines of the conference ”Reform Matrix: Fundamentals of enhancing economic growth for EU accession” conference in Kyiv.
At the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine in the tables to the Inflation Report improved its estimate of growth in exports of goods and services in 2025 to only 0.9% from 0.5%, or $57.7 billion, but in the text of the report itself predicted a decline in exports of goods and services in 2025 due to a smaller harvest and weak demand for IT services, with growth resuming in 2026 due to the gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions.
At the same time, Kachka emphasized that it is necessary to take into account not only the volume of the entire harvest, but also the mix of crops in it, especially in terms of exports.
“For example, if you look at the fact that this year we have a smaller share of corn, respectively, we have a larger share of soybeans, a larger share of rapeseed, a larger share of sunflower – these are the goods for which we have better prices in general,” he explained.
The sales representative added that the price environment has changed.
“Therefore, growth in grains and oilseeds for the next year is quite possible and organic. And now, when we analyze the market, we realize that it is actually possible to earn more with less,” Kachka summarized regarding agricultural exports.
Regarding exports of metallurgical products, he noted that much will depend on decisions in North America regarding duties, as this is an important market for Ukraine.
According to him, exports of metallurgical products are growing and may exceed 20% this year, both for semi-finished products, pig iron, and finished products.
“The question is what the security situation will be like, what the energy situation will be like, etc., but export growth is also possible,” the Ukrainian trade representative said.
According to the NBU’s balance of payments, exports of goods and services from Ukraine increased by 8.4% to $41.33 billion over the first nine months of this year, including 10.3% to $28.64 billion in goods and 4.4% to $12.69 billion in services.
Imports of goods and services increased by 0.9% to UAH 66.66 billion, including 6.2% to UAH 49.65 billion, while services decreased by 1.9% to UAH 17.01 billion.
