The situation with Ukrainian refugees is not improving, and a more active state policy is needed, says the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) in its report “Refugees from Ukraine: Intentions to Return, Impact on the Ukrainian Economy and Recommendations for State Policy.”
“According to different scenarios, from 1.3 million to 3.3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. This is 0.4-0.6 million more than in the calculations for December 2022,” the document says.
According to CES estimates, as a result, the Ukrainian economy may lose 2.7% to 6.9% of GDP annually.
According to the researchers, the number of Ukrainians who have moved abroad is 5.6-6.7 million, which is 0.3-0.5 million, or 5% more than at the end of 2022.
“This was a result of the strikes on Ukraine’s power grid in the winter of 2022-23, the intensification of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in May, and the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in early June 2023,” the study says.
It is specified that 63% of refugees, according to a study by Info Sapiens commissioned by the CES, plan to return to Ukraine, but this share is falling.
“We are not sure that all of them will really return. First of all, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians adapt to life abroad. In addition, some Ukrainians (6.8%) believe that the prospects for their children are better abroad,” the document says.
According to it, people with higher incomes before the war are more likely to return, while people with higher incomes now are less likely to return. In addition, students are one of the largest groups who would like to stay abroad.
It is noted that the majority of refugees are women (the largest share of women aged 35-49 is 18%) and children. Compared to 2022, the share of children has slightly decreased from 52% to 51%, with girls and boys being approximately equal among them.
Among adults, the proportion of men slightly increased from 17% in November 2022 to 22% in May 2023, in particular among people with temporary protection status in the EU – from 27% to 29%.
It is specified that the distribution of Ukrainian refugees by country of residence has also changed: the share of Poland has decreased from 42% to 29%, while the share of Germany has increased from 18% to 26%.
It is noted that a significant number of Ukrainian refugees lost most of their income after the start of the full-scale invasion, but as of May 2023, the economic situation of Ukrainian refugees abroad has improved: the share of those who have to save on food or have enough money for food has decreased from 40% to 35%.
The CES has identified four groups of refugees using cluster analysis. The first group (25% of all refugees) are classic refugees: mostly middle-aged women with children who have moved to Poland. They are not very adapted to life abroad, as 41% of Ukrainians in this group have never been abroad before. In addition, they mostly lived in settlements that were outside the combat zone but were subjected to rocket attacks (central and western Ukraine, as well as Odesa region). Accordingly, the main reason for going abroad was fear for their own safety.
The second group (29% of all refugees) are quasi-labor migrants who went abroad not only because of the war, but also for work. They are the most adapted to life abroad, as 25% of people in this group have already had experience working abroad. Also, for this group, external factors – both the hostilities and the policy of the Ukrainian state – will have the least impact on their decisions to return to Ukraine.
The third group (29% of all refugees) are professionals, people who mostly work in their specialty and are less willing to work outside of it. They often had their own business before the war. This group is more loyal to Ukraine and more often than others plans to return to Ukraine.
The fourth group (16% of all refugees) is people from the war zone, Ukrainians who suffered the most from the war. People from this segment are the most ready to take steps to adapt abroad. At the same time, they also express the greatest readiness to return to another region of Ukraine if it is impossible to return to their home region. Their decision to return will depend on the conditions created for this.
