Urea production in Ukraine in March 2025 will decrease by 45-50% compared to last year, InfoIndustry reports.
“This is due to the shelling of the gas transportation system, which occurred against the backdrop of high activity in the fertilizer market ahead of the agricultural season,” the analysts explained.
The experts recalled that on the night of March 21, Russians shelled the Sudzha gas distribution system. After that, futures on the Dutch gas hub TTF rose by 2%. The cost of 1 MWh reached EUR43.8 ($500 per 1 thousand cubic meters).
The global price of urea decreased by an average of $20 per tonne over the past week across all sources. At the same time, prices for raw materials, such as ammonia and natural gas, are also declining as the fertilizer procurement season in the EU has started and is at its peak. Gas prices in the EU have stabilized.
In Ukraine, the price of gas dropped by 3.5% to UAH 16,012.35 excluding VAT on March 21. Last week, 17.2 million tons of gas were sold on the exchange.
Ukrainian fertilizer producers reduced their nitrogen fertilizer production capacity in March. According to Infoindustriya, as of March 21, Rivne Azot’s capacity utilization dropped to 45% and Cherkasy Azot’s to 31%, although a month ago both companies were at 65-67%. The industry agency adds that these data are estimates based on gas consumption by the plants and unloading of finished products.
“Imports (to Ukraine – IF-U) will not be able to increase due to the limited volumes available for purchase in April. This will lead to a consistently high price for the product,” analysts predict.
According to their information, urea is currently sold on the free market at a price of 24.6 thousand UAH/ton, FCA ports of Ukraine, and the average price with delivery to the central regions of Ukraine is about 25.8 thousand UAH/ton.
