If current demographic trends continue, the EU population will age and begin to decline after the middle of the decade, and in a scenario of zero net migration, the decline could be sharp, to approximately 294 million by 2100, according to calculations based on Eurostat projections (EUROPOP2023).
According to Eurostat’s baseline scenario, which assumes continued positive net migration, the EU population will grow from 446.7 million in 2022 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2026, after which it will gradually decline to 419.5 million by 2100 (down 6.1% from 2022).
At the same time, Eurostat also publishes alternative scenarios (sensitivity tests), including a zero net migration option. In this scenario, the total population of the EU by the end of the century is significantly lower – estimated at around 294 million people, which means a reduction of about one-third from mid-2020s levels. These differences are also highlighted in visualizations based on Eurostat data, as cited by regional media.
The key driver of population decline is negative natural growth. According to Eurostat estimates, between 2022 and 2100, approximately 291.3 million people could be born in the EU, with 416.6 million deaths (a net reduction due to natural movement of approximately 125.3 million), while cumulative net migration in the baseline scenario will partially offset the losses, adding about 98.1 million people.
At the country level, the differences are even more noticeable. In Eurostat’s baseline scenario, the largest population declines by 2100 are expected in Latvia and Lithuania (more than a third), as well as in Greece. At the same time, a number of countries, on the contrary, show population growth due to migration, including Luxembourg and Ireland.
It is noted separately that for Croatia, Eurostat’s baseline scenario predicts a decline in population from about 3.86 million in 2022 to about 2.82 million in 2100, while in scenarios with stricter migration assumptions, the final figures may be lower.
