Ukraine in 2022-23 marketing year (MY) increased sunflower exports by 14% and reduced its processing by 83%, producing its lowest volume since 2009-2010 MY, said oil market analyst at APK-Inform Svetlana Kirichok.
«During the season, there was a record and uncontrolled export of sunflower from Ukraine, which occurred against the background of a decline in oil refining and export of sunflower oil due to the limited work of the ports. The main volume of exports (79%) for September-May came to the EU countries, namely Romania and Bulgaria, which at the expense of Ukrainian raw materials substantially loaded their own enterprises and managed to increase the export of sunflower oil,» — she explained.
According to Kirichok, the imposition of unilateral bans on imports of sunflower to the EU has led to the fact that in April the export of Ukrainian oilseeds fell to its lowest level since April 2022, and a very large amount of sunflower was redirected to the domestic market.
The expert predicts that sunflower exports from Ukraine in 2022-23 MY will reach 2 million tons, which will be a historical maximum for the industry.
«According to our estimate, at the beginning of June, the sunflower balances (conditionally for the whole country) were about 1.6 million tons, which is one of the lowest for many years, and even with minimal export volumes they will not be able to provide full work of processing enterprises in June-August,» — she said.
In general, since the beginning of 2022/23 MY in Ukraine was processed about 10.5 million tons of oilseeds, which was one of the lowest rates over the past seven seasons. Until the end of the current season (in June-August) may be processed about 1.2 million tons — this is the minimum for this period over the past 12 seasons, the expert stated.
Kirichok expects an increase in sunflower production in 2023 due to the expansion of cultivated area to 5.5 million hectares, which is 13% more than a year earlier. At the same time, the total supply of oilseeds will decrease by 10% due to the reduction of carry-over stocks and yield potential, which will happen due to the prolonged sowing season and saving by agrarians of material and technical resources, in particular pesticides.
«If sunflower exports will show rates close to those of 2021/22-2022/23 MY, and exports from deep-sea ports will remain unstable, the country is expected to further reduce processing volumes,» summarized the expert.
