Business news from Ukraine

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN SEPT-OCT, 2019

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved macro forecasts for 2019-2021: the assessment of real economic growth this year has been increased from 3% to 3.5%, in the next year from 3.2% to 3.5% and in 2021 from 3.7% to 4%. The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture has improved the assessment Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 2.8% announced in the May forecast to 3.5%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the government.
The conservative estimate of the government provides for 12% GDP growth in Ukraine over three years, and the optimistic one for 17.8%, said MP Oleksiy Honcharenko (the European Solidarity parliamentary faction).
The World Bank, taking into account the results of H1 2019, has improved its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Ukraine in 2019 from 2.7% to 3.4%, expecting that it would accelerate to 3.7% and 4.2% in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
Ukraine’s GDP growth will reach 3.2% in 2020 with a further acceleration to 3.6% in 2021, Morgan Stanley predicts.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine at first reading adopted the draft national budget for 2020 (bill No. 2000), which is based on the spring macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy and provides for budget revenues in the amount of UAH 1.079 trillion, expenses some UAH 1.17 trillion with a deficit of 2.09%.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, has endorsed an action plan for the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting with Chairman of the Japan-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Association Eysuke Mori has discussed possibilities for deepening economic and investment cooperation between Ukraine and Japan, the press service of the Office of the President has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2019 increased 16.7% compared with January-August 2018, to $5.843 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The current dynamics of consumer prices allows expecting a decrease in inflation in annual terms in October to below 7%, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yakiv Smolii has said.
Actual inflation in Ukraine in September 2019 was lower than the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published in the Inflation Report (July 2019), the regulator’s website reported.
Consumer prices in Ukraine after a decline in August by 0.3% and in July by 0.6% grew by 0.7% in September, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service said on Wednesday.
The deficit of Ukraine’s national budget in January-September 2019 was estimated at UAH 20.675 billion, including UAH 26.12 billion, which is the deficit of the budget’s general fund alone, the State Treasury Service reported on Friday.
The deficit of the general fund of the national budget of Ukraine in January-September 2019 amounted to UAH 25.8 billion and was financed by borrowings, the Ministry of Finance said in a press release on the website.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised its forecast for the country’s international reserves at the end of this year from $21.7 billion to $22.9 billion, the next year from $22.8 billion to $23.9 billion.
The international reserves of Ukraine in September 2019, according to preliminary data, decreased by 2.6%, to $21.438 billion due to significant repayments on government debt, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in September 2019 decreased by 1.1% compared to September 2018 after a decrease of 1.7% in August and 0.2% in July, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s transport companies in January-September 2019 carried 3.167 billion people, which is 5.7% less than in the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in September 2019 increased by 11.3% compared to September 2018, while in August 2019 compared to August 2018 this figure rose by 8.9%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) in January-September 2019 in comparable prices increased by 9.8% compared with January-September 2018, the State Statistics Service has said.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN AUGUST-SEPTEMBER, 2019

The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June 2019 amounted to 4.6% compared to the same period in 2018, while in the first quarter the growth rate was lower and stood at 2.5%, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, which confirmed its operational assessment dated mid-August this year. Fitch has said that after a strong Q2 2019 (4.6% year-over-year), Fitch projects 3.4% growth in 2019, reflecting strong domestic demand and exports driven by the agriculture sector (wheat harvest).
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2019 increased by 18.5% compared with January-July 2018, to $4.936 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Actual inflation in August 2019 in Ukraine has approached the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published in the inflation reform for July 2019, the regulator has reported on its website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine after falling in July 2019 by 0.6% in August fell by another 0.3%, and in annual terms inflation in August fell to 9% from 9.1% in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has said.
The national budget of Ukraine in January-August 2019 posted a surplus of UAH 2.38 billion with the deficit of the general fund being UAH 4.12 billion, according to data on the website of the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of the national budget in August 2019 totaled UAH 87.6 billion, which is 6.9% less than in August 2019, and the outturn is 91%, according to data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Solvent Ukrainian banks in January-August 2019 received UAH 44.29 billion in net profit, which is 3.2 times more than in the same period in 2018, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
The consolidated profit of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) through January-June 2019 totaled UAH 6.4 billion, while its loss for the similar period of 2018 totaled UAH 1.1 billion, according to the first such kind of interim report posted by the central bank.
Ukraine’s international reserves in August 2019, according to preliminary data, rose by 0.8%, to $22.015 billion.
Industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 1.485 trillion were sold in Ukraine in January-July 2019, which is 5.2% more than in January-July 2018 (UAH 1.411 trillion), in particular abroad for UAH 406.371 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in August 2019 decreased 0.7% after rising in July by 3.6% and falling by 2.7% in June, the State Statistics Service has said.
Sugar production in Ukraine as of September 24, 2019 amounted to 121,500 tonnes.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-August 2019 increased freight transportation by 8.1% compared to the same period of 2018, to 442.9 million tonnes, the country’s State Statistics Service has said. The transport companies of Ukraine in January-August 2019 carried 2.808 billion people, which was 5.9% down year-over-year (y-o-y), the country’s State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in August 2019 increased by 8.9% compared to August 2018, while in July 2019 from July 2018 this figure rose by 14.5%.
Retail trade in Ukraine in January-August 2019 increased by 9.9% in comparable prices compared with January-August 2018.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MAY-JUNE, 2019

IMF expects the completion of parliamentary elections in Ukraine to continue negotiations on further cooperation with the country, IMF Spokesperson Gerry Rice has said at a briefing in Washington.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product in January-March 2019 was 2.5% compared to the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported, while according to its preliminary estimate made in mid-May this figure was 2.2%.
Ukraine could receive the second tranche of EU macro-financial assistance in the amount of EUR 500 million by the end of 2019, Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli has said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he does not offer large businessmen Victor Pinchuk, Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoisky and other representatives of business any preferences, but offers only honest common rules for everyone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said about his vision of how to make Ukraine the really rich country and called on business to invest money, time and ideas in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited foreign business to participate in the investment council under the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, which will meet twice a year.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2019 grew by 45.2% compared with January-April 2018, to $2.093 billion, the State Statistics Service said.
Inflation in Ukraine in May 2019 was 0.7% compared to 1% in April, 0.9% in March, 0.5% in February and 1% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The surplus of the Ukrainian national budget in January-May 2019 was UAH 8.6 billion, with the target being UAH 90 billion over the year, according to the Ministry of Finance’s website.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in May 2019 totaled UAH 104.119 billion, which is 8.5% more than it was expected that 7.5% more compared with May 2018, according to information posted on the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Money supply in Ukraine in May 2019 decreased by 0.3%, to UAH 1.260 trillion, the corresponding preliminary data are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The international reserves of Ukraine in May 2019, according to preliminary data, decreased by 5.5%, to $19.402 billion due to significant repayments of government debt, according to the NBU’s website.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in May 2019 fell by 1.8% or $1.4 billion, to $78.39 billion.
Ukraine’s gross external debt as of April 1, 2019 was $114.43 billion, which is $0.28 billion, or 0.24%, less than at the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payment in April 2019 totaled $45 million, while the surplus in March was $652 million.
Industrial production in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 1.6% compared with May 2018, after a rise of 5.2% in April, 2.1% in March, and a fall of 1.8% and 3.3% in February and January respectively, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 2.1%, after falling by 1.5% in April and by 1% in March, growing by 1% in February and January, the State Statistics Service said.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 15.7% compared with May 2018, while the indicator in April 2019 compared with April 2018 rose by 29.4%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-May 2019 in comparable prices increased by 9.6% compared with January-May 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) equals 82.8 in May, which is 11.2 points higher than the indicator in April, the values of indices can vary from 0 to 200, according to a study by Info Sapiens.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN JAN, 2019

Capital investments in Ukraine for 2018 increased by 16.4%, while for 2017 by 22.1%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period of 2017, while it grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, by 3.8% in the second quarter, and by 3.1% in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine expects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.8% in 2020 and by 4.1% in 2021.
Ukraine’s Economic Development and Trade Ministry has promptly assessed growth of the country’s GDP at 3.2%, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said at a government meeting.
The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine calculated by the State Statistics Service in the first quarter of 2019 was 106.3% compared with 104% and 106.1% respectively in the fourth and first quarters of 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2018 was estimated at $5.83 billion, which was 2.3 times more than the indicator in 2017, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2018 grew by 54.5% compared with 2017, to $9.801 billion (to $6.343 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in 2018 increased by 15.5% from 2017, to $6.049 billion ($5.238 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service reported.
Ukraine in 2018 expanded geography of export of goods and increased the number of companies, which were authorized to export food of animal origin, according to a report of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumers’ Protection.
Inflation in Ukraine in January 2019 was 1% against 0.8% in December 2018, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
Industrial producers’ prices in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 1% after a decline in December 2018 by 0.4% and an increase in November by 1.7%, in October by 0.3% and September by 1.2%, the State Statistics Service.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January 2019 amounted to UAH 11.93 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 18.2 billion with the target being UAH 15.82 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in January 2019 totaled UAH 54.49 billion, which is UAH 6.56 billion or 10.8% less than the target for the period, and UAH 700 million or 1.3% less than in January 2018.
The assets of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in 2018 increased by 2.4% and amounted to UAH 1.051 trillion, the corresponding financial indicators were published by the central bank in the Holos Ukrainy newspaper.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reviewed downwards the assessment of growth of real GDP of the country in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.4%, according to a posting on the website of the central bank.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 0.09%, or $ 70million, compared to December 2018, to $78.25 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
The ratio of the state debt and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 fell to 60.9% from 68% in 2017, according to a presentation of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s international reserves did not change in January 2019 and remained at the level of $20.82 billion in the equivalent, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payment in 2018 grew by 12.1% compared with the previous year, to $2.88 billion, according to preliminary data published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 3.3% compared with January 2018, whereas in January last year its growth by 4.3% was recorded, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of sold industrial products (goods, services) in 2018 stood at UAH 2.507 trillion, which is 16.5% more than in 2017, in particular the volume sold abroad was worth UAH 681.927 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January 2019 increased cargo transportation by 4.8% compared to January 2018, to 51.5 million tonnes. The transport companies of Ukraine in January 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6.5% compared with January 2018, to 342.9 million people, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 6.2% compared with January 2018, while the indicator in December 2018 compared with December 2017 fell by 8.8%, according to statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January 2019 increased by 6.3% compared to January 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN NOVEMBER, 2018

Growth of Ukraine’s GDP in July-September 2018 was 2.8% year-over-year, which equals to the preliminary assessment by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine published in the middle of November.
Capital investment in the agricultural and industrial sector in January-September 2018 totaled over UAH 60 billion, including UAH 45 billion in agriculture, which is 38% more than a year ago, Deputy Agricultural Policy and Food Minister of Ukraine Olha Kovaleva said at a press conference.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again revised its expectations for Ukraine’s GDP growth for the current year, downgrading the forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%.
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that he had signed the law on the state budget of Ukraine for 2019.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted as a basis and in general law No. 9369 with technical and legal amendments to the national budget for 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2018 increased by 66.6% compared with January-October 2017 and amounted to $7.95 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The rise in consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2018 slowed down to 1.4% from 1.7% in October and 1.9% in November and since the beginning of the year has reached 8.9%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in November 2018 increased by 1.7% after a 0.3% growth in October, 1.2% in September, and 1.3% in August, the State Statistics Service has said.
The national budget of Ukraine for January-November 2018 saw a deficit of UAH 183.6 million, while the ceiling level approved by the law on the national budget is UAH 80.6 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
Ukraine has received the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of SDR 1 billion (around $1.4 billion), which boosted the country’s forex reserves to $20.1 billion as of December 21, 2018.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-October 2018 was UAH 6.17 billion with the ceiling approved in the law on the national budget being UAH 80.6 billion, while in October its surplus was UAH 1.14 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
Money supply in Ukraine in November 2018 fell by 1.3%, to UAH 1.229 trillion, according to the respective preliminary data of monetary statistics published on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine’s gross external debt in the third quarter of 2018 grew by $985 million, or 0.87%, to $114.742 billion, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2018 compared with November 2017 decreased by 0.9% after rising in October by 1.4%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has passed a bill amending the national budget for 2018, which cuts the financing of three programs to support agriculture by UAH 2.079 billion, to UAH 4.232 billion.
Customs offices as of December 20, 2018 cleared 6,500 cars with foreign license plates imported into Ukraine since 2015 until the day when the new customs clearance rules took effect in the country, the State Fiscal Service reported on its website.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-November 2018 in comparable prices increased by 6.2% compared with January-November 2017, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN OCTOBER, 2018

The pace of the Ukrainian economy lags behind the potential pace in the conditions of faster growth of GDP of European developing countries, Resident Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman has said.
Capital investments in Ukraine in January-September 2018 increased by 19.9%, while in January-September 2017 by 20.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts a slowdown in economic growth in Ukraine in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the same period of 2017 to 3.1% from 3.8% in the second quarter.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018 was 2.8% compared to the same period of 2017, while in the second quarter it was 3.8%, in the first quarter some 3.1%, such assessment has been posted by the State Statistics Service.
Real wages in Ukraine in October 2018 compared with October 2017 increased by 14.2%, compared with September 2018 it increased by 0.2%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2018 increased by 61.4% compared to January-September 2017, to $6.47 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in January-September 2018 totaled $3.45 billion, growing 3.1-fold year-over-year, the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in January-September 2018 increased by 18.1% compared to the same period in 2017, to $4.632 billion (in January-September 2017 some $3.921 billion), the State Statistics Service has reported.
Consumer prices in Ukraine, after rising by 1.9% in September, rose by another 1.7% in October, and since the beginning of the year their growth reached 7.4%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in October 2018 increased by 0.3% after rising by 1.2% in September, 1.3% in August and 1.6% in July, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-October 2018 was UAH 7.17 billion with the ceiling approved in the law on the national budget being UAH 80.6 billion, while in October its surplus was UAH 1.14 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has submitted the reviewed draft national budget for 2019 to the Verkhovna Rada (bill No. 9000), boosting its revenue by 1.8%, to UAH 1.019 trillion and expenses – by 1.6%, to UAH 1.112 trillion, according to the document posted on the parliaments’ website.
The amount of the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be $1.5-1.9 billion, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kateryna Rozhkova has said.
Money supply in Ukraine in October 2018 decreased by 0.4% and amounted to UAH 1.245 trillion, the corresponding preliminary data of monetary statistics have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in October 2018 decreased by 0.46%, or by $0.34 billion, to $74.32 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The international reserves of Ukraine in October 2018 increased by 0.6% and as of November 1 amounted to $16.737 billion, the corresponding preliminary data have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ending stocks on the single account of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine as of early November 2018 totaled UAH 14.64 billion (a 33% decline), the State Treasury Service reported.
Industrial production in Ukraine in October 2018 resumed growth, increasing by 1.4% compared to October 2017, after two months of the decline being 1.3% in September and 0.5% in August 2017, the State Statistics Service has said.

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