Ukraine may save $5-6 billion on energy imports in 2020 due to a 50-60% reduction in prices for energy products, which account for 20% of the country’s imports, NBU Deputy Governor Dmytro Sologub has said.
“Our balance of payments shows that there are both positive and negative influence factors in our current account. First of all, this is a fall in oil prices, energy products, which account for 20% of our imports, compared to $12 billion in 2019. A fall in oil prices, a decrease in gas demand may lead to the fact that this year we will save $5-6 billion,” he said at an online briefing on Friday.
Sologub said that the epidemiological situation has led to a reduction in tourist travel.
“Last year, tourist trips of Ukrainian citizens amounted to $8 billion, and we can also expect a significant reduction,” Sologub said.
According to him, the National Bank expects a slight decrease in food prices, which account for more than 50% in Ukrainian exports. To date, the fall in food prices is much lower than for energy.
“As we understand it, even in a crisis, especially when sitting at home, people will consume food and this is the last thing they will refuse. Therefore, we expect that the demand for our export products will preserve, and if it decreases, then insignificantly,” the banker said.
He said that now there is a decrease in money transfers to the country from Ukrainian citizens working abroad. The National Bank expects that the reduction in the indicator will also be less than in energy products.
“Most likely, this influence will be temporary, as economic recovery in Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy will lead to the resumption of remittances,” he said.