Ukrainian business has worsened expectations regarding a slowdown in inflation over the next 12 months to 7% from 5.1% in the middle of the year and the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate to UAH 28.28/$1 from UAH 26.01/$1.
According to the results of a regular quarterly survey of business expectations of enterprises, conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from May 4 to June 4 this year, businesses more restrainedly expected an increase in production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Thus, almost 34.1% (10.4% a quarter earlier) of respondents expected a decrease in this indicator.
According to the survey, the business activity of Ukrainian enterprises decreased to the lowest index of business expectations since 2015 for the next 12 months, to 90.8% from 110.5% a quarter earlier.
It is noted that a decline in business activity is expected by enterprises of all types and areas of activity.
The poll shows that most companies do not expect changes in their financial and economic situation in the next 12 months, 22% of companies expect deterioration. The regulator noted that representatives of small and medium-sized businesses have more pessimistic assessments.
According to the report, the business expects a decrease in the total volume of sales of products, including in the external market. In general, growth in this indicator is predicted only by respondents from processing industry and trade, and the lowest estimates are in construction and mining enterprises.
According to the survey, for the third quarter in a row, the share of companies that predict a decrease in the number of employees at their enterprises has increased. In particular, the share of enterprises planning to cut staff in the next 12 months increased to 26.3% from 21% a quarter earlier. The respondents are pessimistic in all types of economic activity, except for construction, where the number of employees is predicted to remain unchanged.
At the same time, the number of companies planning to raise wages for their employees has significantly decreased over the next 12 months, to 36.5% from 63.4%.