The real growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product in 2023 may be up to 5%, but given the existing risks, the Ministry of Economy is still conservatively keeping the growth forecast at 2.8%, said Natalia Gorshkova, Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy.
“In those working calculations that we have, we as well as most experts who gave you forecasts, we see the possibility this year to reach a real growth of about 5%,” she said at the discussion “New macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine: what will be the exchange rate, GDP and inflation”, organized by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).
At the same time, Gorshkova pointed out that the ministry is not going to change the current forecast of 2.8% yet, as the risks remain quite significant.
“We are part of the budget process, and we would not want to revise the base for budget formation every time, like on a seesaw,” added the representative of the Ministry of Economy.
She specified that earlier the ministry forecasted the growth of Ukraine’s economy this year at 3.2%, but in June it was adjusted to 2.8% due to the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant and pessimistic expectations about the future harvest.
“Perhaps we were hasty,” Gorshkova pointed out.
Speaking about longer-range forecasts, the Economy Ministry representative noted that, like most experts, the ministry hopes that the war will end in 2024, and this will stimulate an early recovery in the economy.
“Therefore, according to the current forecasts that we have, we expect 5% growth next year,” said the director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy.
According to her, the main driver of growth is investment dynamics, while the nature of investments will change: military investments will be replaced by investments in infrastructure projects, in projects related to reconstruction, as well as supported by foreign investments, and the return of migrants from abroad.
As for inflation, which the Ministry of Economy expects this year at the level of 14.7%, Gorshkova noted that the forecast of the agency remains also conservative, as the assumption of the possibility of revision of the official hryvnia exchange rate at the end of the year remains.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine last week raised the forecast of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023 from 2% to 2.9%, but lowered it for 2024 from 4.3% to 3.5%. In addition, the NBU improved its inflation estimate for this year from 14.8% to 10.6%.
