Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) year-on-year growth in March 2024 was 4.9%, compared to 5.0% in February and 5.2% in January, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IEPC) Monthly Economic Monitor.
“Businesses faced restrictions on electricity supply as a result of Russian shelling of energy facilities. This has held back GDP growth. In April, we also expect GDP growth to slow down due to problems with access to electricity due to massive generation destruction,” said Alexandra Betlij, a leading researcher at the IEI.
The institute estimates that real gross value added (GVA) growth in the processing industry, slowed to almost 11% in March, down from 17% in January, while real GVA in electricity generation declined by 2% and is expected to fall further in April.
It is pointed out that real GVA in transportation continued to grow by more than 20%. Growth was also maintained in construction, particularly due to the construction of budget-financed fortifications, while growth in trade slowed to 4.6%.
Among the main macroeconomic trends last month, IED experts additionally highlighted the increase in transportation by Ukrzaliznytsia and through the Ukrainian Sea Corridor, which contributes to the development of a number of sectors of the economy, record external financing in the amount of $9 bln, a decrease in inflation to 3.2% and the discount rate to 14.5%, as well as the weakening of the hryvnia to 39 UAH/$1 on the background of restrained interventions by the NBU
It is also noted that the value of merchandise exports fell sharply in March this year compared to March last year amid continued decline in grain and iron ore prices.
As reported, after Ukraine’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2023, the National Bank expects it to slow down this year to 3.6%, while the government – to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth for January-February this year amounted to 3.6%, while the NBU in January forecast it in the first quarter at 7.1%.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance expects zero growth of the country’s economy at the end of the current year.
According to the forecast published by the Ministry, the reduction in external demand in the second half of last year was stronger than expected, and the expected turn to economic recovery did not take place. This will have the consequence of the lack of growth in the current year.
The Ministry of Economy notes that last year, the exchange of goods contracted globally, driven by the cooling of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions. In developed countries and Europe, this was compounded by the rapid rise in interest rates, which was launched to curb inflation, and the deterioration in capital- and energy-intensive activities due to the energy crisis.
Nevertheless, according to the Ministry’s assessment, the factors restraining the development of the Estonian economy have been receding in recent years: price growth has slowed down, wage growth has continued, interest rates have gradually decreased, and there is no high unemployment.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance prepares a financial and economic forecast twice a year, in spring and summer.
Estonia’s GDP in 2023 has decreased by 3.1%. At the end of March 2024, the Bank of Estonia gave a forecast that the country’s GDP decline would slow down to “minus” 0.6% this year and the economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s largest economies has changed over the past decades, more video analysis is available here –
https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
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ECONOMIC GROWTH, ESTONIA, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, URAKIN
Ukraine’s international reserves in March, according to preliminary estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), increased by 18%, or $6.7 billion – to $43 billion 762.7 million.
“Such dynamics is due to significant (more than $9 billion) volumes of receipts from international partners, which exceeded the net sale of currency by the National Bank and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency,” the NBU website explained on Friday.
In addition, the National Bank noted that $9.32 billion was transferred to foreign currency accounts of the Cabinet of Ministers in March, while $363.5 million was paid for servicing and repayment of the state debt.
As the regulator noted, Ukraine also paid $728.5m to the International Monetary Fund.
Among other factors determining the volume of reserves, the NBU named operations on the foreign exchange market: in March, the regulator’s net sale of foreign currency amounted to $1.79bn, which is 18.5% more than in the previous month.
According to balance sheet data, the NBU sold $1.81 bln on the foreign exchange market and bought $25.9 mln in reserves.
The central bank also indicated that the current volume of reserves was positively affected by the revaluation of the value of financial instruments, adding $266.3 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides funding for 5.8 months of future imports,” the regulator stated.
As reported, the NBU in January reduced the forecast of Ukraine’s international reserves at the end of 2024 to $40.4 billion from $44.7 billion and to $42.1 billion from $45 billion at the end of 2025. Earlier, Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, International reserves of Ukraine, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, NBU, URAKIN
China’s economy grew by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, Bank of China forecasts.
Domestic consumption grew stronger than expected. Manufacturing investment increased, production is also recovering steadily, and the trend of industrial upgrading and transformation is evident, according to the bank’s report cited by Xinhua news agency.
A positive factor for Chinese exports was the increase in global demand and improved sentiment in global trade.
Bank of China analysts expect that the second quarter will see an improvement in China’s service sector, resulting in an acceleration of the country’s GDP growth to 5.1%. This will also be facilitated by the authorities’ actions aimed at maintaining significant investment in infrastructure through the use of a wide range of policy instruments.
Earlier Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3
Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Bank of China Economy of China, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% in 2023 compared to the previous year, when it fell by 28.8%, according to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service on Thursday.
According to the data, nominal GDP last year amounted to UAH 6 trillion 537.8 billion, with a change in the deflator of 18.5%.
The State Statistics Service clarified that in the first quarter of 2023, the decline in real GDP compared to the same period last year amounted to 10.3% of GDP, after which it grew by 19.2% in the second quarter, 9.6% in the third and 4.7% in the fourth.
Earlier, in December last year, the statistical agency estimated a 10.5% decline in the first quarter, followed by a 19.5% increase in the second and a 9.3% increase in the third.
Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter amounted to UAH 1 trillion 933.0 billion, compared to UAH 1 trillion 778.4 billion in the third quarter, UAH 1 trillion 463.9 billion in the second quarter and UAH 1 trillion 362.5 billion in the first quarter, according to the State Statistics Service.
As reported, in January, the National Bank of Ukraine estimated the country’s GDP growth in 2023 at 5.7%, and its nominal value at UAH 6.51 trillion. The NBU maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 3.6% (nominal UAH 7.58 trillion), slightly downgrading it for 2025 from 6.0% to 5.8%. At the same time, for the first quarter of this year, the NBU improved its GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 5.4%, expecting it to slow to 4.8% in the second quarter.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, the government improved its estimate of GDP growth last year from 2.8% to 5%, but downgraded it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth in January-February this year was 3.6%.
In its updated EFF program with Ukraine, the IMF estimated real GDP growth in 2023 at 5% and nominal GDP at UAH 6.5 trillion. It forecasts a slowdown to 3-4% this year, and an increase in nominal GDP to UAH 7.75 trillion.
For more details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, please see one of the video analyzes of the Experts club think tank – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-
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Germany’s economy will avoid recession in 2024, but will grow by only 0.1% due to declining exports and weak domestic demand, according to leading German research institutes.
The previous forecast, prepared by the Munich-based Institute for Economic Research (IFO), the Kiel-based Institute for World Economics (IfW), the Rhineland-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research in Essen (RWI) and the Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), predicted German GDP growth of 1.3%.
In 2023, the German economy shrank by 0.3%.
The economists warned that domestic demand is growing more slowly than expected, and exports are suffering due to high electricity prices, which reduce the competitiveness of German energy-intensive goods.
“Cyclical and structural factors are leading to a weakening of economic growth,” said Stefan Koots, head of economic research at the IfW. – “A recovery may begin in the spring, but overall, the growth momentum will not be very strong.
In 2025, according to experts, Germany’s GDP growth will accelerate to 1.4%.
The forecast for inflation for 2024 is 2.3%, for 2025 – 1.8%.
Earlier, Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of GDP changes in major countries, the video is available at https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=EpL-_EmhIGfMURGl
