The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product growth in 2026 to 2.2% due to the protracted war, but notes that macroeconomic stability has been maintained thanks to external support.
“This is slightly lower than the 2.5% forecast published in February, but should hostilities ease and post-war reconstruction begin, the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 4.0%,” according to the EBRD’s “Regional Economic Prospects” (REP) report, published on Wednesday.
The bank emphasizes that Ukraine is maintaining macroeconomic stability even in the fifth year of Russia’s aggressive war thanks to significant external financing. The outlook continues to depend largely on the course of the war and the availability of external financial support.
“The main downside risk to the forecast is linked to the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which could significantly worsen Ukraine’s already unstable energy situation,” the report states.
The EBRD attributes the slowdown in economic growth to 1.8% in 2025 and the weak start this year to ongoing wartime constraints: labor shortages and persistent attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted industrial activity and logistics, while broader supply chain issues have limited production.
The bank notes that inflation has also begun to rise again after slowing to 7.4% in January 2026 following a period of tighter monetary policy and relative exchange rate stability. Higher global energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East are adding new pressure, increasing costs for businesses and households and contributing to a resurgence of inflationary momentum.
According to the EBRD, fiscal support remains crucial. Ukraine’s budget deficit, excluding grants, reached 23.6% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to remain elevated at 19.3% of GDP in 2026, reflecting exceptionally high spending on defense and social services. These needs are financed largely through official external support, which continues to underpin macroeconomic stability. The allocated external financing of over EUR110 billion for 2026–27 is expected to mitigate short-term risks.
The Bank notes that it is Ukraine’s largest institutional investor and has significantly increased its support in response to the full-scale war: since its onset in February 2022, the EBRD has allocated nearly EUR10.0 billion to Ukraine.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April.
The government’s forecast, included in the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev recently announced plans to revise it downward.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.
The United Kingdom and France blocked a proposal for NATO member states to allocate 0.25% of their GDP to military aid for Ukraine, according to The Telegraph.
Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged that his plan would not be implemented because it had not received sufficient support.
“I don’t think this proposal will be put to a vote,” he told reporters, without naming the opponents.
According to The Telegraph, the idea was blocked by the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada.
Rutte had hoped to secure approval for this proposal at the upcoming annual NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
This week, ministers began discussing what, in the opinion of the alliance’s civilian chief, should become a concrete manifestation of support for the war-torn country.
“An alliance insider reported that at least seven member states, which spend more than 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine, have expressed their support. However, any proposals adopted by NATO require unanimous support from all member capitals,” the report states.
According to publicly available data compiled by the Kiel Institute, the Netherlands, Poland, as well as the Nordic and Baltic countries, provide aid at a level of 0.25% of GDP or higher. The size of the UK’s military contribution—the third largest after the US and Germany—is also uncontroversial, despite the fact that it does not reach the 0.25% of GDP mark.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to allocate at least £3 billion per year—approximately 0.1% of GDP—in the near future.
Most of the criticism is directed at countries such as France, Spain, Italy, and Canada, which have repeatedly been accused of not doing their part. These countries—three of which are Europe’s third, fourth, and fifth-largest economies—lag behind many of their smaller allies in terms of aid levels.
Rutte argues that aid to Ukraine “is not distributed evenly within NATO,” and that many countries “are not spending enough to support Ukraine.”
The NATO chief, who served as the Dutch prime minister for 14 years, has long argued that Europe must take on greater responsibility for supporting Ukraine, in response to Donald Trump’s complaints about the continent “freeloading.”
A spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office stated: “The UK continues to work with NATO allies on all proposals to ensure the best possible support for Ukraine from the alliance.”
Representatives from France, Italy, Spain, and Canada did not respond to The Telegraph’s requests for comment.
The visualization of the dynamics of the top 20 countries by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 1991-2024 from the Experts Club analytical center, which went viral on social media, is generally confirmed by international statistics: in 2024, the world’s largest economies in terms of GDP (PPP) China, the US, and India.
According to World Bank data on GDP, PPP (current international $), in 2024, China’s GDP in PPP was estimated at $38.19 trillion, the US at $29.18 trillion, and India at $16.19 trillion. The top ten economies by this indicator also included Russia (4th place), Japan (5th place), followed by Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, France, and the United Kingdom.
The Experts Club notes that the “race” from 1991 to 2024 reflects a long-term shift in the weight of the global economy towards Asia. At the start of the period, developed economies were the leaders, but then markets with large populations and domestic demand grew rapidly, and China and India gradually established themselves among the leaders.
“GDP at PPP does not show ‘wealth in currency’, but rather the scale of the economy, taking into account how many goods and services can actually be purchased within the country. Therefore, PPP better describes the domestic market and consumption potential, while for foreign trade, debt, and capital inflows, it is important to look at nominal indicators in parallel,” commented Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The GDP indicator in PPP terms converts the size of the economy into “international dollars,” taking into account differences in price levels between countries, so that the comparison is more accurate than when converted at market rates.
The video analysis by the Experts Club analytical center is available at the link:
Construction, with a rate of 31.5%, made the largest contribution to Ukraine’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, which, according to preliminary data, amounted to 2.1%, the State Statistics Service reported on Thursday.
According to its estimates of GDP using the production method, growth in public administration was 15.1%, in the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning – 6.7%, in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles – 2.6%, and in education – 2.2%.
In calculating GDP using the final use (or expenditure) method, which shows where resources in the economy were directed—to consumption, investment, or public services, the main growth in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was driven by general government expenditure (12.2%) and gross fixed capital formation (or, more simply, investment) (11.5%).
In addition, final household consumption expenditure grew by 6.7%, according to the State Statistics Service.
“In the third quarter, there were significant shifts in the structure: public finances, investment in fixed capital, and household consumption expenditure strengthened noticeably. In terms of production, the main drivers were construction, the public administration sector, energy, trade, and education. It was these sectors that shaped the positive dynamics of the quarter,” said Igor Gonchar, deputy chairman of the State Statistics Service.
The day before, the State Statistics Service reported that Ukraine’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 2.1% compared to the third quarter of 2024, while in the second quarter of this year the same indicator was 0.8%, and in the first quarter – 0.9%.
As reported, at the end of October, the National Bank also estimated Ukraine’s real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 at 2.1% compared to the same period last year, while earlier it had forecast it at 2.4%.
According to the updated forecast, the estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of this year has been revised down to 3.4% from 3.5% in July.
Overall, the National Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production facilities, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%. The inflation forecast for this year has been improved from 9.7% to 9.2%, while the forecast for next year has been kept at 6.6%.
Serbia’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 2% in annualized terms, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia ( SERS) reported. According to seasonally cleansed data, GDP grew by 0.6% compared to the second quarter of this year.
The biggest increase in value added was recorded in industry and water supply sector – 2.9%, as well as in information and communication – 6%.
Decrease was noted in construction, where the output decreased by 11.7 %, and in agriculture, forestry and fishing – by 0.2 %.
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