Reaching an agreement on a long-term ceasefire could accelerate Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.5-5.5% year-on-year from 2.9% in 2024, thanks to improved economic sentiment and the start of large-scale reconstruction, which will offset the reduction in defense spending, while if the war continues, growth will slow to 2.5%, according to an updated forecast published by investment company Dragon Capital.
“Although weak economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 will be partially offset by better prospects for the energy sector, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points (percentage points) to 2.5% in the “continuing war” scenario,” the company said in a statement on Tuesday.
According to the statement, the forecast was also lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the event of a prolonged ceasefire.
According to Dragon Capital’s forecast, annual inflation will begin to decline in June-July amid continued easing of fundamental pressures and a high base of comparison in the food segment in the second half of last year.
“We forecast consumer inflation to slow to 8.1% y/y by the end of 2025 in the ‘ongoing war’ scenario and to 9-10% y/y in the ‘ceasefire’ scenario,” the release says.
Regarding the hryvnia exchange rate, Dragon Capital notes that in the first quarter of 2025, the NBU allowed the hryvnia to strengthen against the US dollar by 1.4% to 41.5 UAH/USD after a long period of controlled devaluation. The company believes that this strengthening of the hryvnia was the NBU’s response to high inflation, significant external financing, the global weakening of the dollar, and a seasonal decline in demand for foreign currency.
“We expect the NBU to return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year, when inflation rates begin to decline. However, given the significant amount of financial assistance, we have raised our forecast for NBU reserves to $59 billion (from $41 billion) and lowered our year-end exchange rate forecast to 44 UAH/USD (-4.4% y/y; previous forecast — 45 UAH/USD),” the release said.
Dragon Capital experts added that achieving a sustainable ceasefire will contribute to a slower devaluation of the hryvnia in the second half of the year, as fundamental pressure on prices will be higher and the balance of payments situation will improve due to a slowdown in private capital outflows and continued external financial assistance.
“Going forward, the exchange rate will depend on the volume of external financing and private capital flows, while the foreign trade deficit will remain significant due to structural changes in the economy,” the release said.
As reported earlier on Tuesday, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development revised its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.3% from 3.5% expected in February and kept its forecast for 2026 at 5.0%, provided that Russia’s war against Ukraine ends.
At the end of February, the International Monetary Fund also revised its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points compared to its previous forecast to 2-3%, and the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%.
In April, the NBU worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in the current year to 3.1% from 3.6% in its previous macroeconomic forecast in January, and in the next forecast, from 4.0% to 3.7%.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a significant increase in the US national debt over the next 30 years. According to CBO’s forecast, the national debt will reach 100% of GDP in the current fiscal year and increase to a record 107% of GDP in fiscal year 2029. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 156% of GDP.
“Rising public debt will slow economic growth, lead to higher interest payments to foreign debt holders, and pose significant risks to budget and economic projections,” the CBO said in its review.
Earlier this week, international rating agency Moody’s warned that import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump could prevent the country from getting its growing budget deficit under control.
The CBO expects the US budget deficit to increase to 7.3% of GDP by 2055 from 6.4% of GDP in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 6.2% of GDP.
The CBO forecast assumes a slowdown in US economic growth this year to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2024. Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.) from the previous forecast to 2-3%, according to a press release from the Fund based on the results of the mission for the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
“Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5% in 2024, but is expected to slow to 2-3% in 2025, reflecting unfavorable factors related to labor market constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine,” the release said following the staff-level agreement (SLA) on Friday.
Earlier this week, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025 to 3.5%, while last September it expected it to reach 4.7%.
As reported, the World Bank (WB) in its Global Economic Prospects published on January 17 downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in the June report, but improved it for 2026 to 7% from 5.1%.
The National Bank of Ukraine also changed its forecasts. Given the security risks and the difficult situation on the labor market, the NBU lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.1% to 3.6% in late January, while the state budget for 2025 is based on a 2.7% GDP growth forecast.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January 2025 grew by 2% compared to January 2024, while in December 2024 the growth was recorded at 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the Monthly Economic Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The main reasons for the accelerated growth are a smaller decline in agriculture, which now reflects only livestock indicators, the absence of massive scheduled power outages, and an increase in private consumption. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, real production in livestock is slightly declining. The number of cattle has declined, while the situation in poultry farming is more favorable. According to IER estimates, real gross value added (GVA) in agriculture decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in January,” the study says.
It is emphasized that the approach of the frontline and the complete closure of mines near Pokrovsk have negatively affected the pace of economic recovery in Ukraine and led to a decline in the mining industry.
At the same time, the situation with iron ore production remains positive. So far, according to the IER, real GVA in the mining industry decreased by 2.9% in January 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. At the same time, the approaching frontline may have an even more negative impact on the performance of the extractive industry in the coming months.
However, the absence of planned massive power outages had a positive impact on the performance of the manufacturing industry. Domestic demand for the products of industries focused on the domestic market was also favorable. External demand also helped the steel industry. However, the IER notes that the statistical base was high in January. In general, although some industries showed a decrease in output, in the manufacturing industry, real gross domestic product increased by 3% in January (compared to January 2024).
“The destruction of electricity generation by the Russians was not fully compensated by repairs and new generation. In addition, the demand for electricity was lower this year due to warm weather and emergency power outages as a preventive measure during shelling. As a result, according to our estimates, the real GVA in the industry decreased by 5.1% in January (compared to January-2024),” the IER states.
At the same time, in trade, real gross domestic product continues to grow due to higher wages and social payments. Consumption is also growing amid high inflation expectations. In January, the real growth in trade gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 4.9% (compared to January 2014). At the same time, due to the suspension of Russian gas transit to the EU, real GVA in transport decreased by 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
The IER added that Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s port infrastructure. In late January and early February, there were several attacks on the ports of Odesa, Izmail and Chornomorsk, which damaged port infrastructure. In January, Ukraine exported 6.6 million tons of goods by sea.
In January, 14 million tons of cargo were transported by rail, which is at the level of December 2024 and 1% less than in January 2024. Of these, 5.5 million tons were transported to ports and 2 million tons to the western border. Ore (44%), grain (38%), and ferrous metals (6%) account for the largest share of transportation.
In addition, in the first month of 2025, exports of goods fell by 6% compared to January 2024 and by 4% compared to December 2024, to $3.18 billion. Exports of agricultural goods continued to decline compared to previous months amid declining inventories. Agricultural exports fell by 18% yoy (compared to January-2024) to $1.85 billion due to a smaller harvest and lower carryover stocks at the beginning of the marketing year. Physical volumes of exports of key agricultural commodities fell even further, but export revenues were supported by higher prices and the gradual diversification of agricultural exports.
Merchandise imports fell to $5.55 bn in January, reflecting a seasonal decline in imports compared to December. In annual terms, imports increased by 9% (compared to the same period of the previous year). Imports of machinery and equipment amounted to $2.16 billion, up 17% compared to January 2024, in particular due to a sharp increase in imports of energy equipment ($431 million in January 2025 compared to $85 million in January 2024). At the same time, imports of cars fell.
Among other things, the IER forecasts real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
As reported by the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.5% in January-2025, driven by the construction industry, manufacturing, and domestic trade.
The World Bank also downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in its June report, but improved it for 2026 to 7% from 5.1% in its Global Economic Outlook published on January 17.
The National Bank of Ukraine has also changed its forecasts. Given security risks and the difficult situation on the labor market, the NBU has lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%.
The eurozone’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.1% compared to the previous three months, according to a report by the European Union’s statistical office, which presented revised data. Previously, it was reported that GDP remained unchanged. Experts on average expected the previous estimate to be confirmed, according to Trading Economics.
In annual terms, the eurozone economy grew by 0.9%, the fastest pace since the beginning of 2023. The dynamics of this indicator coincided with the previous estimate and the consensus forecast of analysts.
In the third quarter, eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.9% in annual terms.
In October-December, Germany’s economy declined by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, France’s by 0.1%, Spain’s by 0.8%, and Italy’s GDP remained unchanged.
In annual terms, Germany’s GDP also decreased by 0.2%, France’s by 0.7%, Spain’s by 3.5%, and Italy’s by 0.5%.
In the fourth quarter, the EU economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 1.1% in annual terms.
This is the second estimate of GDP dynamics for the fourth quarter out of three. The third estimate will be published on March 7. According to preliminary data, in 2024, the euro area’s GDP grew by 0.7%, and the EU’s by 0.9%.
Experts Club Analytical Center and Maksim Urakin released earlier video analysis about the economy of Ukraine and the world – https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=b_tVU8Zeg_-xZVEo.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/vvp-yevrozony-v-iv-kvartali-zris-na-01/
Ukraine’s total public debt in 2024 rose to a new all-time high: by $22.74 billion, or 14.3%, to $166.06 billion in dollar terms, and by UAH 1 trillion 461.3 billion, or 26.5%, to UAH 6 trillion 980.9 billion in hryvnia terms, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
According to the data, the direct public debt increased by 16.5% in dollars to $159.20 billion, or UAH 6 trillion 692.4 billion, and accounted for 95.9% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt.
In 2024, Ukraine’s total external public debt increased by 18.1%, or by $18.38 billion, to $114.88 billion, while the total internal public debt increased by 16.7%, or by UAH 276.0 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 863.1 billion.
As a result, the share of total external public debt increased from 70.0% to 72.3% over the year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of 2024 increased to 33.01%, in US dollars to 26.81%, in SDRs to 11.39%, in Canadian dollars to 2.83%, in British pounds to 0.11%, while in hryvnia it decreased to 25.33% and in yen to 0.51%.
The agency also clarified that 65.01% of the state debt has a fixed interest rate, while 11.39% is tied to the IMF rate, 12.66% to SOFR, 3.80% to EURIBOR, 0.51% to TORF and 0.10% to SONIA.
The rate for another 2.08% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, and 4.17% to the NBU discount rate. These are government bonds from the NBU’s portfolio. The newest of these were the securities linked to the key policy rate, which the NBU bought as part of the issue financing of the 2022 budget.
Finally, 0.27% of the state debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of rates on retail deposits, which is used in portfolio guarantee programs.
The Ministry of Finance previously noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a sharp increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP – from 43.3% at the end of 2021 to 79.4% at the end of 2023.
As reported, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion in 2022 and by $33.9 billion in 2023.
The IMF, as part of the sixth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program with Ukraine last December, improved its forecast for public debt growth due to higher GDP growth and lower deficits: to 92.2% of GDP by the end of 2024 and to 104.3% by the end of 2025, while in October it estimated it at 95.6% of GDP and 106.6% of GDP, respectively.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis on the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
