Business news from Ukraine

Dragon Capital raises iforecast for GDP growth in 2023

Dragon Capital investment company, taking into account the increase in exports of raw materials through the sea corridor, a stable energy situation and a good harvest, improved its forecast for economic growth in 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%, but kept it at 4% for 2024, the company said in a press release on Friday.
“Our updated estimate is that real GDP will grow 5.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, from the 3.0% we previously estimated,” the company said in a statement.
Its analysts estimate that Ukraine exported about 4 million tonnes of commodities through the new sea corridor in November, from 2 million tonnes in October. At the same time, agricultural goods accounted for about 60-70%, and the remaining share was occupied by the export of iron ore and steel. This dynamics contributes to the revitalization of related sectors, in particular freight transportation and trade, contributes to the recovery of ore production and metallurgy products, and also improves the financial indicators of agricultural enterprises, reducing risks to the harvest in 2024.
Dragon Capital, taking into account the latest data on yields of major agricultural crops, has improved its expectations for the harvest of grains and oilseeds this year from 77 million tonnes to 80 million tonnes (11% more year-over-year).
At the same time, the investment company said that an unexpected and unfavorable event was the blockade of the main crossing points of the Ukrainian-Polish border by Polish truckers in early November, which will have a limited adverse impact on economic activity.
Among the downsides of the blockade of the Ukrainian-Polish border are a decrease in state budget receipts, losses for manufacturers oriented towards the EU market, mainly in the food industry, woodworking and production of automotive electronics, a shortage of certain energy materials such as LPG, a delay in volunteer assistance for the front and financial losses of enterprises due to queues.
At the same time, Dragon Capital said, since the import of goods from the EU to Ukraine by road exceeds exports by $1.1 billion per month, the blockade leads to a reduction in the foreign trade deficit, which in recent months has fluctuated in the range of $2.8-3.0 billion per month.
“Due to the reduction in imports, some Ukrainian manufacturers of consumer goods are gaining a temporary competitive advantage,” the company added.
Speaking about the 4% forecast for economic growth next year, Dragon Capital named the partial restoration of exports by seaports as one of its key drivers and, accordingly, an increase in production in related sectors (ore mining, metallurgy, freight transportation, domestic trade). “The development of the domestic defense industry would also contribute to the economy,” the company said.
At the same time, the investment company said that economic recovery in 2023-2024 will not compensate for the 29% decline in 2022 caused by the consequences of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and real GDP in 2024 will remain 22% below its pre-war level.
“At the same time, nominal GDP in U.S. dollars could reach its pre-war level of $200 billion as early as next year due to relative exchange rate stability and high average annual inflation,” Dragon Capital said in the press release.
The company maintained its inflation forecast for this and next years at 6% and 8%, respectively, with the National Bank’s key policy rate unchanged at 15% after its expected reduction from 16% at the next meeting on December 14.
Dragon Capital also noted the importance of financial assistance from partners, pointing out that if there is a shortage, the government will have to turn to monetization of the budget deficit, which will decrease next year from 25% of GDP to 21% of GDP, or to increase the tax burden.
“We expect international partners to approve new economic support packages for Ukraine and provide about $40 billion in direct budget funding in 2024, although a delay in the release of funds is possible early next year,” the company said.
The company’s analysts expect that, subject to such external revenues, the National Bank’s gold and foreign exchange reserves will begin to gradually grow and reach $45 billion by the end of the year.
Dragon Capital kept its exchange rate expectations unchanged – UAH 37.30/$1 on average for 2024 and UAH 39.00/$1 at the end of the year.


Dragon Capital has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth to 3%

Dragon Capital investment company, one of the leading players on the Ukrainian market, forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3 percent in 2023, while previously it had expected a decline of 0.5 percent.
“We have already improved our forecast: we expect GDP growth of 3% this year,” the company’s founder and head Tomas Fiala said in an interview on Radio NV.
He said power outages have already stopped since mid-February, and economic results in recent months have been better than expected.
“And we hope the economy will grow, perhaps even more than 3 percent,” Fiala added.
Dragon Capital told Interfax-Ukraine that rate and inflation forecasts will also be updated soon.
Fiala noted that Ukraine’s nominal GDP in dollars fell to $160 billion in 2022 from $200 billion in 2021.
“This is the best figure in the last 10 years, more was only in 2021: GDP was $157 billion in 2020 and $160 billion in 2022,” the head of Dragon Capital said.
As reported, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko late last week said he raised Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, while previously the government had estimated it at 1%, and the National Bank recently improved it from 0.3% to 2%.


Dragon Capital intends to acquire online store “Parfums

Investment group Dragon Capital intends to buy Parfums LLC (Kiev), an online perfume store Parfums (, whose revenue in 2022, according to the resource opendatabot, fell to 2.4 million UAH from 206.8 million UAH a year earlier.
According to information from the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) on Friday, it gave the Cypriot Dragon Capital Investments Limited permission to buy more than 50% in the Cypriot PFG Corporation Limited, which owns 100% in Parfums LLC and the beneficiary of which is related to Dragon Capital.
At the same time, the AMCU notified that it had granted the same permission to Cyprus-based Redinfine Consultants Limited.
Dragon Capital investment company has not yet commented on this information to Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
According to opendatabot, the beneficiary of PFG Corporation Limited is a Czech citizen Suchy Ivo, a member of the supervisory board of Dragon Capital-owned Unex Bank, representing the shareholder. It is also indicated that for the past five years he was executive director of Dragon Capital (Cyprus) Limited and Dragon Capital s.r.o.
According to opendatabot, previously among the beneficiaries of PFG Corruption Limited was Andrey Logvin – the beneficiary of a major player in Ukrainian Internet retail Kasta Group.
At the beginning of 2022, the share capital of Parfums LLC was increased from 133.72 million UAH to 177.80 million UAH. Assets of the company in the past year decreased from 106.4 million UAH to 81.5 million UAH, liabilities – from 167.8 million UAH to 98.5 million UAH.
The site of the online store indicates that the project has been operating since 2008.
Dragon Capital – one of the largest investment groups in Ukraine in the field of investment and financial services. It provides a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, private equity and asset management for institutional, corporate and private clients.
The company was founded in 2000 in Kiev, the beneficiary is the founder and head Czech citizen Tomas Fiala.
In June 2022, specialized resource RAU reported that as a result of an asset swap the largest player in the market of perfumes and cosmetics in Ukraine MakeUp will receive from Dragon Capital management of online store, but will give it an online store with children’s products to the already existing Dragon Capital


CHERDAK co-working centers were opened in business centers of Dragon Capital

As the press-service of the company informed Interfax-Ukraine, the co-working occupies more than 757 sq.m in BC Platinum (3A, M. Grishko Str.) and 1017 sq.m in BC Eurasia (75, Zhilyanskaya Str.).
According to the press service of CHERDAK, the cost of a non-fixed workplace is $150/month, fixed $190/month, single entrance – 300 UAH.
CHERDAK network of co-working centers plans to expand its activities in the office facilities of Dragon Capital, negotiations are now underway.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment and financial services groups in Ukraine and provides a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, private equity, asset management for institutional, corporate and private clients. The company was founded in 2000 in Kiev. One of the key activities of Dragon Capital are investments in real estate market.
Its commercial real estate portfolio is managed by Dragon Capital Property Management. As of November 2022 there are 29 commercial properties under management, including 13 office properties, six retail properties and 10 logistic complexes.

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Head of Dragon Capital Tomas Fiala predicts the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 3% in 2022.
“Our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 remains unchanged, we expect growth at the level of 3%,” he said during the European Business Association (EBA) “Global Outlook: Reality Check” conference.
According to him, the exchange rate of the national currency during the year will be at the level of UAH 29-30/$1. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate will be stable in the first half of the year, while its volatility may begin in the second half of the year, since Ukraine will have to import a significant amount of energy resources.
The head of Dragon Capital added that currently his company continues to invest.
“We continue to invest in our investment projects, we continue to build industrial parks in Kyiv and Lviv,” Fiala said.



Dragon Capital has received permission to build a Class A warehouse complex with an area of 25,700 square meters, which is the first stage of E40 Industrial Park (Kyiv), the press service of the company said.
“We are pleased that obtaining permits for construction work in our country is becoming transparent and efficient. We were amazed when received permission from the State Inspectorate of Architecture and Urban Planning of Ukraine in just one day, submitting all the necessary documents online through the Diia portal. This is an unprecedented reform, which in itself can serve as a powerful signal for new investments in the construction sector,” Investment Director of Dragon Capital Mykhailo Sakun said.
He also expressed confidence that the significant tax incentives for residents of industrial parks, recently adopted at first reading, allow investors to see the prospects for investing in the development of industrial parks in Ukraine and create real incentives for investment in the industrial real estate sector as a whole.
E40 Industrial Park is an industrial park with a total area of 200,000 square meters, located on the 27th kilometer of the Zhytomyr highway, which is part of the European highway E40.
According to the release, E40 Industrial Park covers an area of 49 hectares and consists of nine sites, planned for storage and production facilities that meet international standards for “green” buildings BREEAM. The own management company Dragon Capital Property Management will provide centralized maintenance of infrastructure facilities and security of the park.
Sakun noted that the strategic location of the E40 park on the key international highway, close to the capital and its highly qualified personnel, the infrastructure and services of a professional developer are the key advantages of the project.
“We offer our partners both traditional lease and build-to-suit projects, that is, design and construction for the customer, which greatly simplifies the process of expansion, relocation or entry into Ukraine for industrialists, because we completely deal with all issues related to construction,” he said.
To date, Dragon Capital Property Management manages more than 380,000 sq m of industrial real estate and the company continues to expand its portfolio in this segment, including through development.