According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is entering June with heightened caution: Bitcoin is trading near the $73,000 mark, Ethereum is trading around $2,000, and investors are assessing several risk factors at once—the U.S.-Iran conflict, high oil prices, outflows from crypto ETFs, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the MiCA deadline for crypto companies in the EU.
Following the May decline, the main issue for the market will be not only Bitcoin’s performance but also broader risk appetite. If geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf persist, investors may continue to reduce their positions in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. For BTC, this means the risk of continued trading within a wide range without a sustained recovery, and for altcoins, even greater sensitivity to liquidity.
The first key macroeconomic indicator will be the U.S. labor market report for May, which will be released on June 5. Strong employment data could dampen expectations of Fed policy easing and support the dollar and bond yields. For the cryptocurrency market, this is traditionally a negative combination, as more expensive money reduces interest in assets without a stable cash flow.
The second set of risks is related to oil. A meeting of select OPEC+ countries, which coordinate voluntary production cuts, is expected on June 7. Under normal circumstances, this would be primarily an oil-related event, but currently, the energy factor directly influences inflation expectations, central bank policy, and investor behavior. If the market perceives a risk of an oil shortage or a new surge in prices, crypto assets could come under pressure again due to fears of tighter monetary policy.
On June 10, U.S. inflation data for May will be released. This is one of the month’s key events for Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the CPI shows an acceleration due to fuel and transportation costs, the market may price in fewer chances of rate cuts in 2026 or even begin discussing the risk of further policy tightening. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected, the cryptocurrency market could receive short-term support.
On June 11, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. This is important for the cryptocurrency market due to the euro, liquidity in Europe, and the overall revaluation of risk assets. Due to high energy prices, inflationary pressures in the eurozone have intensified again, so investors will be closely watching the ECB’s signals regarding its next steps.
The key event of the month will be the Fed meeting on June 16–17. It will be accompanied by updated economic forecasts and FOMC members’ rate expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, not only the decision itself but also the tone of the comments will be important: if the Fed acknowledges inflation risks stemming from oil and geopolitics, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. If, however, the regulator emphasizes the economic slowdown and the need to preserve room for future easing, the market may attempt a recovery.
A separate factor in June will be EU regulation. By June 30, crypto companies must obtain licenses under MiCA rules or risk facing restrictions, blacklists, and regulatory claims. For large players, this may be a step toward legalization and trust, but for small exchanges and providers, it poses the risk of losing access to EU clients.
ETF flows will remain one of the most important short-term indicators. Following an outflow of over $2 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in early June, the market will be watching closely to see if institutional investors return to buying. If outflows continue, it will be harder for BTC to hold above key technical levels. If funds show inflows again, this could signal a stabilization of demand.
The geopolitical front remains the most unpredictable. A U.S.-Iran war, risks to the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and tensions surrounding global trade could drastically shift investor sentiment. Cryptocurrencies behave erratically under such conditions: sometimes Bitcoin is perceived as an alternative asset, but in the short term, it more often reacts as a risky instrument and falls alongside stocks and the tech sector.
For Ethereum, June will be even more challenging than for Bitcoin. ETH depends not only on the broader market but also on activity in DeFi, NFTs, L2 networks, and demand for spot Ethereum ETFs. If liquidity remains weak, Ethereum may lag behind Bitcoin, while altcoins could exhibit even higher volatility.
The base case for June assumes continued high volatility and Bitcoin trading within a wide range without a clear trend until the release of inflation data and the Fed’s decision. A positive scenario for the market would be a combination of weaker inflation, oil price stabilization, a resumption of inflows into ETFs, and dovish signals from the Fed. A negative scenario would involve a new surge in oil prices, hawkish rhetoric from central banks, increased outflows from ETFs, and escalation in the Middle East.
Thus, June could be a test of resilience for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin remains the main indicator of institutional demand, Ethereum serves as an indicator of risk in altcoins, and key external factors will include interest rates, inflation, oil, geopolitics, and regulation in Europe.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market traded with increased volatility during the week of March 2-7, 2026, amid geopolitical risks and cautious investor expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates in the US. Activity shifted toward defensive strategies, while interest in infrastructure tokens and select L2 projects remained strong, and altcoins moved unevenly.
Bitcoin showed sharp intraday fluctuations during the week, reacting to macroeconomic news and dollar movements, as well as changes in risk appetite on stock markets. Ether remained influenced by discussions about scalability and transaction costs, as well as news flow around the L2 ecosystem. The derivatives market saw a rapid shift in sentiment, from leveraging local dips to taking profits on rebounds, which amplified price movements.
The stablecoin segment remained a key “conductor” of liquidity during the week: investors actively used stablecoins to park capital and quickly re-enter the market. In DeFi, interest in short-term income strategies remained high, but sensitivity to smart contract risks and protocol news remained high. The meme token sector saw sporadic activity, but no sustained overall trend.
The regulatory environment was defined by increased attention to compliance and risk control on crypto exchanges in major jurisdictions, which supported demand for “white” platforms and products with a transparent structure. The market also discussed the implications for the industry of expanding restrictions on settlements and access to financial infrastructure, which increased interest in diversifying liquidity channels.
Next week, market participants will focus on macroeconomic publications in the US and regulatory rhetoric, as well as the dynamics of risk assets. For the crypto market, the key factor remains the balance between liquidity inflows, risk demand, and geopolitical news, which has been rapidly changing investor sentiment in recent weeks.
If you want, I can make a second version in the classic Fixygen “numbers of the week” format — with a table of the top 10 movements, capitalization, BTC dominance, changes in TVL DeFi, and key news about exchanges and regulators — but for that, I need to clarify which sources you want to use to calculate prices (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or TradingView).
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market traded with increased volatility during the week of March 2-7, 2026, amid geopolitical risks and cautious investor expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates in the US. Activity shifted toward defensive strategies, while interest in infrastructure tokens and select L2 projects remained strong, and altcoins moved unevenly.
Bitcoin showed sharp intraday fluctuations during the week, reacting to macroeconomic news and dollar movements, as well as changes in risk appetite on stock markets. Ether remained influenced by discussions about scalability and transaction costs, as well as news flow around the L2 ecosystem. The derivatives market saw a rapid shift in sentiment, from leveraging local dips to taking profits on rebounds, which amplified price movements.
The stablecoin segment remained a key “conductor” of liquidity during the week: investors actively used stablecoins to park capital and quickly re-enter the market. In DeFi, interest in short-term income strategies remained high, but sensitivity to smart contract risks and protocol news remained high. The meme token sector saw sporadic activity, but no sustained overall trend.
The regulatory environment was defined by increased attention to compliance and risk control on crypto exchanges in major jurisdictions, which supported demand for “white” platforms and products with a transparent structure. The market also discussed the implications for the industry of expanding restrictions on settlements and access to financial infrastructure, which increased interest in diversifying liquidity channels.
Next week, market participants will focus on macroeconomic publications in the US and regulatory rhetoric, as well as the dynamics of risk assets. For the crypto market, the key factor remains the balance between liquidity inflows, risk demand, and geopolitical news, which has been rapidly changing investor sentiment in recent weeks.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of February 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the UN. Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, Maksim Urakhin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed signs of recovery despite the ongoing war and unstable geopolitical situation. According to updated data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3.3% in 2024, while nominal GDP amounted to approximately UAH 8.3 trillion. The deflator index was 11.6%.
“GDP growth demonstrates the resilience of the Ukrainian economy. Sectors focused on exports, domestic consumption, and infrastructure restoration have become the drivers of growth,” comments Maxim Urakin.
As of January 2025, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9%. Consumer prices rose by 1.2% in January compared to December, reflecting seasonal increases and currency stability.
According to the State Statistics Service, at the end of 2024, exports of goods amounted to $43.8 billion (+13.4%), imports to $67.4 billion (+5.7%), and the negative foreign trade balance to $23.6 billion.
“Despite high imports, primarily of energy and equipment, export activity is growing. Ukraine is strengthening its position in the agricultural and metallurgical markets,” says Maksim Urakyn.
As of February 1, 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to $146.7 billion, including $100.1 billion in external debt. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, international reserves reached $45.3 billion, increasing by $400 million in January thanks to inflows from the EU and the IMF.
“The record level of reserves strengthens the stability of the hryvnia and allows the NBU to control currency fluctuations,” the economist emphasizes.
Global economy
According to the IMF’s January update, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, with a forecast of 3.2% for 2025. Developing countries remain the main drivers, despite global instability.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy grew by 2.5% in 2024. In January 2025, inflation stood at 3.1% year-on-year, with the Fed keeping its rate at 5.25-5.5%.
According to revised Eurostat data, the eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4% in 2024, while inflation stood at 2.8% in January 2025. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, contracted by 0.1%, while Spain and Portugal made positive contributions to overall growth.
“Geopolitics, high borrowing costs, and weak demand in the G7 countries continue to hold back the recovery. Strong consumer demand is supporting the US economy. However, expensive credit is holding back investment activity, especially in real estate. The Chinese economy needs new stimulus, including tax reforms and support for small businesses, to offset the decline in investment in the construction sector,” Urakin explains.
The Indian economy continues to grow steadily: 8% in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Indian Ministry of Finance. The country is strengthening its position in global supply chains and increasing domestic production.
According to official statistics, China’s GDP grew by 5% in 2024. However, growth in the real estate sector remains weak and domestic demand is limited, which is holding back expansion potential.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic picture at the beginning of 2025 reflects a difficult but stable situation both in Ukraine and globally. Domestic GDP growth, slowing inflation, and strengthening reserves are positive signals for Ukraine. The global economy, in turn, is showing cautious growth amid continuing challenges.
“The key priorities for Ukraine remain ensuring macroeconomic stability, growing high value-added exports, accelerating digital transformation, and implementing structural reforms. This will enable the country to strengthen its position in the international economy as early as 2025,” concludes Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1072123.html
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, GEOPOLITICS, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
According to political scientist Daniil Bogatyriov, in recent weeks, international relations are characterized by an escalation in confrontation between various centers of power.
According to the expert in international affairs, the beginning of not one, but two cold wars is characteristic of the current geopolitical situation in the world: between Russia and the United States in Eastern Europe and between China and the United States in Southeast Asia.
“For example, a recent meeting of the representatives of the U.S. Department State and the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Alaska only exacerbated contradictions between the countries. At the end of the meeting, unambiguous confrontational statements were made. The American side expressed to the Chinese one claims about the violation of human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the increasing pressure in Taiwan. The Chinese, in turn, pointed to the facts of human rights violations in the United States during the suppression of the BLM protest movement,” Bogatyriov said.
According to the political scientist, a similar level of confrontation has also been achieved between the United States and the Russian Federation.
“Today we see attempts to eliminate internal opposition in Russia and Belarus. Thus, the Russian authorities have launched a process to recognize the structure of Alexei Navalny (the Anti-Corruption Foundation) an extremist organization. It is no coincidence that the so-called conspiracy of the opposition intelligentsia has been uncovered in Belarus just now,” the expert said.
He noted that all these processes in the future may lead to the formation of the phenomenon of “large spaces” in various regions of the world, which will in fact be zones of direct influence of one or another large state.
“We are entering the world of “large spaces,” the world of zones of influence, where a cold war will flare up between them and in the future serious restrictions on the movement of citizens and any other cross-border activities are not ruled out. Such things will be possible only within the framework of their large space, that is, this will lead to the lowering of the very real “iron curtain,” as it was in the last cold war,” Bogatyriov summed up.
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Kyiv is standing in front of building a complicated, but necessary dialogue with Warsaw, which has reached a dead end in recent years. It is fair to say that both sides derailed the relations between Ukraine and Poland, however, this does not mean that Kyiv should wait for a full or partial reboot of the government in the neighboring country, moreover, this may not happen, according to political expert Valentyn Haidai.
“We should not forget that in both cases with Poland and with Russia one should differ between sociopolitical and economic dialogues. It is no secret that under conditions of political confrontation between the Ukrainian and Russian elites trade and economic cooperation between the two countries is growing. We can see the same situation in case with Poland,” Haidai said in a program on the Expert Club YouTube channel.
In the expert’s opinion, there is no especial confrontation between the political elites of both countries. Poland and Ukraine do not have any territorial disputes, despite the desire to revise the borders by certain marginal circles, or a sharp conflict related to humanitarian policy, as in the case of Hungary.
“Speaking about economic cooperation, it should be noted that it was estimated at more than EUR 7 billion at the beginning of this year, which is EUR 2 billion more than in 2015, and it continues growing even during the coronavirus pandemic. Ukrainian export to Poland has increased, just the same as Polish import to Ukraine did. An increase in trade, in particular, was registered in the following segments: mineral fertilizers, textile, mechanical and electric equipment, animal fat and metal goods. In addition, Ukraine is one of the largest recipients of Polish food. According to Statistics Poland, export of agricultural goods to Ukraine has grown by more than 20%,” the political expert said.
As of the end of 2019, more than 400 joint enterprises operated in Ukraine and Poland in machine building, consumer goods and food industry, agriculture, etc. Cultural and scientific cooperation continues. Poland, which has a range of grant and scholarship programs, including the Eastern Studies, Stipend for Young Researchers and Krzysztof Skubiszewski Scholarship programs, is traditionally preferred by Ukrainian school graduates, postgraduate students and scientists.
“The problem is that if liberal Trzaskowski won, it is highly probable that Warsaw would take a step forward towards the normalization of relations with Kyiv on its own, while after the victory of conservative Duda in the presidential election the search for compromises was put off,” Haidai said.
The full interview is available on the Expert Club YouTube channel
