According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is entering June with heightened caution: Bitcoin is trading near the $73,000 mark, Ethereum is trading around $2,000, and investors are assessing several risk factors at once—the U.S.-Iran conflict, high oil prices, outflows from crypto ETFs, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the MiCA deadline for crypto companies in the EU.
Following the May decline, the main issue for the market will be not only Bitcoin’s performance but also broader risk appetite. If geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf persist, investors may continue to reduce their positions in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. For BTC, this means the risk of continued trading within a wide range without a sustained recovery, and for altcoins, even greater sensitivity to liquidity.
The first key macroeconomic indicator will be the U.S. labor market report for May, which will be released on June 5. Strong employment data could dampen expectations of Fed policy easing and support the dollar and bond yields. For the cryptocurrency market, this is traditionally a negative combination, as more expensive money reduces interest in assets without a stable cash flow.
The second set of risks is related to oil. A meeting of select OPEC+ countries, which coordinate voluntary production cuts, is expected on June 7. Under normal circumstances, this would be primarily an oil-related event, but currently, the energy factor directly influences inflation expectations, central bank policy, and investor behavior. If the market perceives a risk of an oil shortage or a new surge in prices, crypto assets could come under pressure again due to fears of tighter monetary policy.
On June 10, U.S. inflation data for May will be released. This is one of the month’s key events for Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the CPI shows an acceleration due to fuel and transportation costs, the market may price in fewer chances of rate cuts in 2026 or even begin discussing the risk of further policy tightening. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected, the cryptocurrency market could receive short-term support.
On June 11, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. This is important for the cryptocurrency market due to the euro, liquidity in Europe, and the overall revaluation of risk assets. Due to high energy prices, inflationary pressures in the eurozone have intensified again, so investors will be closely watching the ECB’s signals regarding its next steps.
The key event of the month will be the Fed meeting on June 16–17. It will be accompanied by updated economic forecasts and FOMC members’ rate expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, not only the decision itself but also the tone of the comments will be important: if the Fed acknowledges inflation risks stemming from oil and geopolitics, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. If, however, the regulator emphasizes the economic slowdown and the need to preserve room for future easing, the market may attempt a recovery.
A separate factor in June will be EU regulation. By June 30, crypto companies must obtain licenses under MiCA rules or risk facing restrictions, blacklists, and regulatory claims. For large players, this may be a step toward legalization and trust, but for small exchanges and providers, it poses the risk of losing access to EU clients.
ETF flows will remain one of the most important short-term indicators. Following an outflow of over $2 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in early June, the market will be watching closely to see if institutional investors return to buying. If outflows continue, it will be harder for BTC to hold above key technical levels. If funds show inflows again, this could signal a stabilization of demand.
The geopolitical front remains the most unpredictable. A U.S.-Iran war, risks to the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and tensions surrounding global trade could drastically shift investor sentiment. Cryptocurrencies behave erratically under such conditions: sometimes Bitcoin is perceived as an alternative asset, but in the short term, it more often reacts as a risky instrument and falls alongside stocks and the tech sector.
For Ethereum, June will be even more challenging than for Bitcoin. ETH depends not only on the broader market but also on activity in DeFi, NFTs, L2 networks, and demand for spot Ethereum ETFs. If liquidity remains weak, Ethereum may lag behind Bitcoin, while altcoins could exhibit even higher volatility.
The base case for June assumes continued high volatility and Bitcoin trading within a wide range without a clear trend until the release of inflation data and the Fed’s decision. A positive scenario for the market would be a combination of weaker inflation, oil price stabilization, a resumption of inflows into ETFs, and dovish signals from the Fed. A negative scenario would involve a new surge in oil prices, hawkish rhetoric from central banks, increased outflows from ETFs, and escalation in the Middle East.
Thus, June could be a test of resilience for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin remains the main indicator of institutional demand, Ethereum serves as an indicator of risk in altcoins, and key external factors will include interest rates, inflation, oil, geopolitics, and regulation in Europe.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week on a downtrend: Bitcoin is hovering around $73,500, Ethereum around $2,000, while investors are reducing risk amid geopolitical tensions, outflows from crypto ETFs, and cautious expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
As of May 29, Bitcoin was trading around $73,550, Ethereum around $2,000. During the day, BTC fell to $72,560, and ETH to $1,970, reflecting continued pressure on the largest crypto assets following a sharp deterioration in market sentiment.
The main external factor of the week was the escalation of geopolitical risks following U.S. strikes on Iran. Against this backdrop, investors shifted to safer assets, oil prices rose, and expectations for a Fed rate cut dimmed due to the potential for increased inflationary pressure. This was a negative combination for the crypto market, as digital assets remain sensitive to liquidity, interest rates, and risk appetite.
Over the week, Bitcoin shifted from cautious consolidation around $76,000 to a decline toward the $73,000 range. As recently as May 24, the market remained in a wait-and-see mode: BTC was trading near $76,000, Ethereum near $2,100, and market participants were assessing outflows from ETFs and the prospects for digital asset regulation in the U.S. By the end of the week, pressure intensified, and the recovery in demand from institutional investors proved insufficient to reverse the market trend.
Flows into exchange-traded funds became a significant factor. According to Farside Investors, on May 26, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $648.6 million. The previous week also saw negative trends for these funds: on May 19, outflows totaled approximately $331.1 million; on May 20, $70.5 million; on May 21, $100.9 million; and on May 22, $105.2 million.
According to market estimates, the total outflow from cryptocurrency ETFs over the past two weeks exceeded $2.5 billion. This has become one of the key signals that institutional investors are temporarily reducing their exposure to digital assets amid high volatility and uncertainty in global markets.
Large holders exerted additional pressure on Bitcoin. According to the Economic Times, BTC consolidated around $73,600 amid increased activity from so-called “whales,” and outflows from large addresses reached their highest level since February. The market typically interprets this signal as a possible indication that major players are preparing to sell or reallocate their positions.
Ethereum also remained under pressure. The largest altcoin fell to around $2,000, and spot Ethereum ETFs, according to SoSoValue, recorded several consecutive days of net outflows in mid-May. ETH’s weakness heightened caution in the altcoin market, where investors typically reduce positions more quickly amid declining liquidity.
Among the largest cryptocurrencies, XRP and Solana were also under pressure. According to Barron’s, amid a deteriorating external environment, Ethereum fell more sharply than Bitcoin, while XRP and Solana also lost several percentage points. This confirms that the sell-off was broad-based rather than isolated and affected both core assets and riskier market segments.
A notable event of the week was Tether’s announcement of plans to launch a digital token pegged to the Georgian lari, with the support of the Georgian government. The project could become one of the rare examples of cooperation between a private stablecoin issuer and a government; however, details regarding the token’s structure and the role of regulators remain unclear.
Thus, the crypto market ends the week in a weak position. Short-term dynamics depend on three factors: whether outflows from ETFs continue or stop, investor reactions to geopolitical risks, and expectations regarding Fed interest rates. Until these factors provide the market with a sustainable impetus for recovery, Bitcoin remains in a zone of heightened volatility, while altcoins face even stronger pressure.
The cryptocurrency market remains one of the most volatile segments of global finance. Bitcoin and Ethereum hold the largest market capitalization shares among digital assets, and the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S. has strengthened the crypto market’s link to traditional financial markets, institutional capital flows, and monetary policy expectations.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market maintained a moderately positive sentiment last week, although growth slowed toward the end of the period. Bitcoin traded around $77,800 on Friday, while Ethereum traded around $2,310, according to market data as of April 24.
The market saw its strongest movement in the middle of the week. According to Reuters, on April 22, Bitcoin rose to $78,866, gaining 4.13% for the day, while Ethereum climbed to $2,398, up 3.48% on the day. This occurred amid an improvement in global risk appetite and a general rise in stock markets.
However, momentum weakened in the second half of the week. On April 23, Reuters noted a pullback in cryptocurrencies amid rising oil prices, tensions in the Middle East, and more cautious investor sentiment: at that time, Bitcoin fell to $77,682, and Ethereum to $2,316. By April 24, the market had stabilized, but without a new strong upward surge.
Institutional money remained the key support factor for Bitcoin this week. According to industry publications, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs continued, and Strategy purchased an additional 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion, marking its largest purchase since late 2024. This reinforced the perception of Bitcoin as an asset that continues to be actively bought up by major players, even following the March-April recovery.
Another positive signal for the sector was the continued push by traditional financial firms toward the crypto market. Reuters previously reported that Charles Schwab plans to launch spot cryptocurrency trading, which the market interprets as another step toward the further institutionalization of digital assets.
Ultimately, the week ended on a somewhat bullish note for the crypto market, though without a full-fledged breakout. Bitcoin managed to hold near $78,000 and remained close to the week’s local highs, while Ethereum showed less resilience and retreated from the $2,400 range by the end of the period. If the external backdrop does not deteriorate, the market may continue its attempts to rise, though dependence on geopolitics and investors’ overall risk appetite remains high.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the last week of February with a moderate decline: Bitcoin fell to $65,900 on February 28 from $68,000 on February 22, corresponding to a drop of approximately 3%.
During the week, BTC fell to around $64,100 on February 25, then rebounded to $67,900 on February 26, after which it fell below $66,000 again. Ethereum fell by about 2% (to $1,930) over the same period, and Solana fell by about 4% (to $82).
According to CoinMarketCap, at the end of the week, the total capitalization of the crypto market was about $2.25 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance at about 58% and 24-hour turnover at about $93-96 billion.
Possible scenarios: baseline — consolidation in the $64-68 thousand range with neutral news background; positive — return to attempts to test $68-70 thousand with improved risk appetite; negative – a decline below $64,000 with an acceleration of the sell-off amid heightened geopolitical risks and pressure from global markets.
The week of February 2-6, 2026, was marked by a sharp risk-off mode: BTC fell to around $60,000 at one point, then rebounded, but still showed its worst weekly performance since the end of 2022.
By Friday, Bitcoin had recovered to $65,894 (+4.4% for the day), but remained down approximately 14% for the week.
Ethereum was around $1,889 by the end of the week, compared to $2,344 at the beginning of the week (approximately -19%).
XRP fell from approximately $1.62 to $1.30 (about -20%).
Solana fell from approximately $104 to $84 (about -19%).
The key blow came on February 5: the market saw a “sell-off day” comparable in scale to the worst sessions since 2022, amid de-risking and shoulder exits.
A number of factors then came into play: the weakness of risky assets, nervousness around macro expectations, and a rapid “reversal” of positioning from cautious to defensive.
Against the backdrop of the decline in BTC, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs intensified: in just one session of the week, net outflows amounted to about $545 million, and in two consecutive days – about $817 million.
At the same time, the market experienced a wave of liquidations: in one day, the volume of liquidations in crypto derivatives exceeded $1.4 billion (according to aggregate estimates).
On February 6, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9 points — the “extreme fear” zone, a level that the media compared to the period of FTX stress.
If ETF outflows and liquidations begin to subside, the market may hold on to the rebound as “technical.” If flows remain negative and risk assets generally weaken, pressure on crypto will continue (especially on altcoins with high beta sensitivity).
February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
