According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of October 12–16, 2026, amid heightened volatility and declining investor interest in risky assets. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $82,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,450. The main factors putting pressure on the market were accelerating inflation in the U.S., capital outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs, and MSCI’s decision to revise the criteria for including companies that hold digital assets in international stock indices.
According to market quotes as of October 16, Bitcoin has partially recovered after falling to a four-week low of around $79,800 the previous day. Earlier in the week, the largest cryptocurrency traded mostly above $82,000, but the release of U.S. macroeconomic data intensified selling pressure.
Ethereum showed weaker performance, falling to approximately $2,440–$2,450 from $2,500 at the end of the previous week. Other major digital assets were also under pressure, notably Solana, which traded at around $105.
The most significant event for financial markets was the release on October 14 of U.S. Department of Labor data on September inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Additional pressure came from producer price data released on October 15: the PPI rose by 1.3% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Annual producer inflation reached 6.3%.
The acceleration in inflation has heightened market participants’ concerns regarding the future policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. For cryptocurrencies, this implies the risk of persistently high interest rates, which limit the availability of liquidity and investment demand for highly volatile assets.
This negative trend has impacted U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on digital assets.
According to statistics from Farside Investors, over four trading sessions from October 12 to 15, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled approximately $146 million. The largest outflow was recorded on October 14, when investors withdrew $261.4 million. Meanwhile, on October 13, the funds attracted $175.7 million, and on October 15, another $5.1 million.
From spot Ethereum ETFs, investors withdrew approximately $250.4 million over the same period. The largest single-day outflow occurred on October 14 and totaled $129.5 million, while on October 15, the funds lost another $60.3 million.
Thus, the total net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds over four trading days reached approximately $396.4 million. The results of Friday’s trading session have not yet been included in these calculations.
A notable event of the week was the decision by international index provider MSCI, announced on October 15, to change the methodology for including non-operating companies in global stock indices.
The new rules provide for the exclusion of companies whose financial characteristics make them comparable to investment funds and other passive investment structures. The changes will take effect following the November index review, which is scheduled to conclude on November 30.
Public companies whose activities are largely related to the accumulation of Bitcoin and other digital assets fall under these potential restrictions. Among them are Michael Saylor’s U.S.-based Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet.
MSCI intends to publish the final list of affected companies on November 11. The decision itself does not mean the automatic exclusion of all companies with cryptocurrency reserves: classification will depend on established financial criteria.
According to Reuters, Strategy had previously estimated the potential volume of sales of its shares by index funds in the event of exclusion from the indices at approximately $2.8 billion. Against the backdrop of this news, the company’s shares fell by more than 4% on October 16.
Meanwhile, corporate purchases of Bitcoin continue.
U.S.-based Strive Inc., whose shares trade on the Nasdaq, announced on October 13 that it had purchased 3,311 BTC between October 5 and 9 at an average price of about $84,500. The total value of the purchase was approximately $279.8 million, and the company’s total cryptocurrency reserve increased to 32,773 BTC.
On October 14, Strive announced the additional purchase of 2,822 BTC between October 12 and 13 at an average price of $83,270. The total value of this batch is estimated at approximately $235 million.
Thus, taking into account the two announced purchases, the company’s Bitcoin reserves are estimated to have reached 35,595 BTC.
At the same time, Strive reported the exercise of stock warrants, which is expected to raise approximately $369.2 million before deducting related expenses.
These transactions indicate that demand for Bitcoin from certain public companies remains strong, even amid downward pressure on prices and a decline in investments in exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds.
At the same time, the infrastructure for servicing digital assets by traditional financial institutions is developing.
On October 16, Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to launch its first cryptocurrency custody service for institutional and corporate clients in the coming weeks. Initially, the platform will operate in Germany, after which the bank expects to expand its presence to Asia’s major financial centers by 2027.
In the initial phase, the service will focus on storing Bitcoin and Ethereum. Going forward, Deutsche Bank plans to add transactions involving stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and digital securities.
The German bank views blockchain infrastructure as a complement to traditional financial services, rather than a replacement for them.
On the regulatory front, a document published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S. Federal Register on October 13 drew particular attention; it outlines the development of comprehensive rules for certain retail transactions involving cryptoassets.
The initiative was initially announced by the regulator on October 5. It aims to establish a legal framework for cryptocurrency markets, increase transaction transparency, and protect retail investors. The public comment period for the document will run until December 14, 2026.
At this stage, the focus is on drafting regulations, not on the new requirements taking effect.
Thus, the main theme of the week was the divergence between short-term cryptocurrency price movements and the development of industry infrastructure. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets came under pressure from macroeconomic factors, yet traditional banks continued to develop new products, and some public companies continued to expand their cryptocurrency reserves.
Next week, investors will be watching the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds, changes in expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rates, capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the implications of MSCI’s decision.
For the corporate sector, preparations for the November 11 announcement of the final list of companies that may be removed from international stock indices will be particularly important.
The beginning of October showed that market volatility is still very much present. After a strong third quarter, investors once again began to partially lock in profits: in a single week, approximately $681 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, and over the two trading days of October 7–8, outflows approached $730 million.
According to Experts Club, the situation in the crypto market in 2026 bears less and less resemblance to previous cycles, which were entirely dependent on retail speculation. ETFs, institutional portfolios, corporate reserves, and regulated exchange-traded products are playing an increasingly significant role.
At the same time, this makes the market more sensitive to global interest rates, the dollar exchange rate, capital flows between tech stocks and digital assets, as well as decisions by major asset management firms.
Therefore, the strong growth in the third quarter should, for now, be viewed more as a recovery from the sharp decline in the first half of the year rather than as a guarantee of sustained one-sided growth.
According to Fixygen, as of October 9, the cryptocurrency market is tentatively ending the week on a down note after a relatively strong start to the month. The main factors putting pressure on the market were rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, high oil prices, and lingering concerns about the future policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin traded above $86,000 at the start of the week but fell to approximately $80,400 on October 8. By the morning of October 9, the largest cryptocurrency had partially recovered to around $82,500. Thus, compared to the levels at the start of the week, the decline amounts to about 4–5%.
Ethereum came under even greater pressure. On October 5, ETH was trading around $2,710, and on October 9, around $2,500. The decline since the start of the week approached 8%. The drop was particularly pronounced on October 7–8, when Ethereum lost about 8% over two days.
Outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs served as an additional negative factor. As of October 7, funds had been withdrawn from these ETFs for seven consecutive trading sessions. Over the past five sessions, the net outflow totaled approximately $506 million, with investors withdrawing another $161 million on October 7.
At the same time, institutional investors’ long-term interest in cryptocurrencies remains strong. Bitcoin remains significantly above the lows of the first half of 2026, and traditional financial firms continue to launch new exchange-traded products related to digital assets.
A key development this week was the continued development of a new regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market. On October 5, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a federal regulatory regime for cryptocurrency platforms offering leveraged trading to retail clients.
The proposal calls for the creation of a separate category of regulated platforms—crypto asset markets. These platforms may be required to provide proof of reserves, implement mechanisms to prevent market manipulation, and register under the federal framework. This is effectively an attempt by the regulator to partially fill the legal vacuum after Congress failed to advance the sweeping Clarity Act.
At the same time, cryptocurrency infrastructure continues to penetrate mainstream payment services. Samsung announced on October 7 that, in the last week of the month, it will integrate support for USDC directly into Samsung Wallet for users of compatible Galaxy devices in the U.S.
The feature will potentially be available on approximately 82 million compatible devices. Users will be able to send USDC to crypto wallets, as well as transfer funds to bank accounts in more than 60 countries with conversion to local currency. Samsung is exploring the possibility of further expanding the use of stablecoins, including for paying for goods and services.
Thus, the main highlight of the week was the divergence between short-term market dynamics and the development of the crypto industry itself. Prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many altcoins fell amid a decline in global risk appetite; however, at the same time, the market’s institutionalization, regulatory development, and the integration of stablecoins into mainstream financial services continued.
Next week, market participants will focus on U.S. inflation data and expectations regarding the Fed’s future decisions. Rising U.S. Treasury yields remain one of the main risks for Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
Source: Reuters, Samsung Electronics, LSEG, U.S. ETF data.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of September 14–18 with a moderate rebound following sharp volatility: Bitcoin has returned to around $78,000, Ethereum is holding above $2,500, although U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 18, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,100, Ethereum at $2,510, BNB at around $750, and XRP at around $1.33. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.77 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $93 billion. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has risen by about 1%, Ethereum by 1.2%, BNB by more than 5%, and XRP by approximately 1.5%.
The start of the week was significantly more volatile. On September 14, Bitcoin was trading around $78,200, but by September 15, it had fallen to approximately $75,600. The next day, prices remained near $76,100, after which the market began to recover through Friday.
One of the main factors putting pressure on the market was the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—to 3.75–4%. The U.S. central bank attributed the decision to persistently high inflation. This marked the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
An additional source of uncertainty for the crypto industry was the U.S. Senate vote on H.R. 3633, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market and delineate the respective authorities of the SEC and the CFTC. On September 15, a procedural vote to move the bill to the floor ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, while three-fifths of the Senate’s votes were required for passage.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs remained negative for most of the week. According to Farside Investors, over the four trading sessions from September 14–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $427 million. Following an inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and $295.9 million on Wednesday. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with a net inflow of $159.5 million. Data for Friday had not yet been compiled at the time this review was prepared.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs was even weaker. Over the same period, net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum funds totaled approximately $284 million. On Monday, the funds attracted $121.1 million, but over the next three trading sessions, they lost $142 million, $224.1 million, and $39.3 million, respectively.
At the same time, at the end of the week, the crypto industry received a positive regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On September 17, the SEC introduced the so-called Innovation Exemption—a temporary five-year regime that, under certain conditions, allows for the trading of tokenized shares of U.S. companies via blockchain infrastructure and permissioned AMM pools. The SEC emphasized that tokenized shares must grant holders the same rights as the corresponding traditional securities.
The news boosted companies involved in digital assets and was one of the factors behind the recovery in market sentiment at the end of the week. In Friday’s trading, Coinbase shares rose by more than 3%, Strategy by about 4%, and Robinhood by 3.5%, while Bitcoin climbed back to the $78,000 range.
At the same time, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5% this week, and the price of Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and risks to energy supplies. High oil prices exacerbate inflationary risks and may support a tighter monetary policy by central banks, which traditionally curbs demand for crypto assets.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the resilience of the largest cryptocurrencies in the face of a simultaneous deterioration in the monetary and regulatory environment. Bitcoin closed the previous week near $77,100 and, as of September 18, is trading above $78,000, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization rose from approximately $2.73 trillion to $2.77 trillion.
At the same time, negative outflows from ETFs indicate that the recovery has not yet been accompanied by a steady return of large institutional capital. Next week, the market will continue to be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s next moves, trends in U.S. bonds and oil, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the future of legislation governing the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
According to Fixygen, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $986.9 million in net inflows for the week ending September 4, extending their streak of positive weeks to three in a row.
According to SoSoValue data cited by The Block, inflows increased compared to $924.5 million the previous week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, attracting $691.5 million over the week.
Meanwhile, on September 3, net inflows into all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $730.9 million, marking the highest daily figure since mid-January. The following day, the funds received an additional $174.6 million.
Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week totaled $14.5 billion, compared to nearly $19 billion the week before. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $218.4 million, also marking their third consecutive week of positive inflows. Their trading volume totaled $4.1 billion.
Overall, August was one of the strongest months for institutional crypto products in the past year. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.52 billion—the highest since September 2025—while Ethereum ETFs received $1.85 billion, marking their best monthly performance since August of last year.
The shift in sentiment was even more pronounced in the third week of August, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion, Ethereum ETFs—$697.2 million, and the combined turnover of both categories more than tripled—to $29 billion.
However, inflows remain uneven. Following a strong previous week, approximately $46.6 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs on September 8. Thus, institutional demand has resumed, but investors remain sensitive to macroeconomic data and expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
Bitcoin itself corrected after rising above $81,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 9, it was trading at around $78,300, and the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at approximately $1.58 trillion.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exchange-traded exposure to Bitcoin without having to store the cryptocurrency themselves. The largest players in the U.S. market are BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK/21Shares, and Bitwise.
Data source — SoSoValue/The Block: Bitcoin ETF flow data
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is closing out the last week of August near local highs: Bitcoin is holding steady at around $80,000 after rising above $81,000, investors are once again actively investing in spot ETFs, and the stablecoin sector continues to evolve from a primarily trading instrument into a full-fledged payment infrastructure.
On August 25, Bitcoin rose to $81,240, its highest level since mid-May. By the morning of Friday, August 28, the leading cryptocurrency had corrected to approximately $79,700; however, for the month of August, it remains up by about 26.7%, which could be its best monthly performance since the end of 2024.
Unlike many previous waves of growth, one of the key factors now is not so much speculative demand as it is investors’ concerns about U.S. government debt, the long-term value of the dollar, and the situation in the Treasury bond market.
Following the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to increase the repurchase of long-term Treasury bonds, market participants have once again begun discussing the so-called “debasement trade”—the purchase of gold, Bitcoin, and other scarce assets as a hedge against potential currency devaluation.
Standard Chartered noted that such a policy creates precisely the macroeconomic environment for which Bitcoin was originally created. Some analysts suggest that a sustained break above the current resistance zone could pave the way to $95,000–100,000.
That said, this week was significantly calmer than the previous one. By last Friday, Bitcoin had already surged to around $77,000–78,000, posting its best weekly performance in over two years. This week, the market focused more on consolidating this gain than on launching a new upward surge.
Ether also remained relatively stable and was trading near $2,500 by the end of the week. Thus, Ethereum did not replicate the scale of Bitcoin’s August rally but continued its recovery following a weaker first half of the year.
One of the most important signals for the market was the return of funds to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to market participants’ estimates, inflows into these funds in August approached $2.4–2.5 billion, with investors directing approximately $2.5 billion into ETFs over the last seven trading sessions.
BlackRock, the largest operator of Bitcoin ETFs, believes that institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin not only as a high-risk technology asset but also as a potential diversification tool amid debt and currency risks. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest U.S. fund, already manages over $76 billion in assets.
This is particularly important for the market following a prolonged period of capital outflows from ETFs earlier this year. The return of institutional demand significantly increases the likelihood that August’s growth will prove more sustainable than the short-lived speculative rallies of previous months.
Another significant trend of the week is the accelerating development of stablecoins.
The volume of payments made using cards pegged to stablecoins exceeded $1 billion for the first time in July. RedotPay forecasts that by 2028, the annual volume of such payments could increase approximately fourfold—to $50 billion.
Stablecoins are being used more and more actively not only within crypto exchanges but also for cross-border transfers, corporate settlements, holding dollar liquidity, and everyday payments. This market is growing particularly rapidly in Latin America and Africa, where access to dollar-denominated banking instruments is limited.
This week, another signal came from the United Kingdom: the government proposed expanding the Bank of England’s mandate to include supporting innovation in the payments sector, particularly innovations related to stablecoins and digital currencies.
Another telling development was Chelsea Football Club’s decision to make Circle—the issuer of USDC—the title sponsor of its jerseys. The logo of one of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoins will now appear on the jerseys of the English Premier League club—a level of mainstream integration that would have seemed nearly impossible for the crypto industry just a few years ago.
Consolidation is also continuing in the industry’s institutional segment.
Crypto custodian BitGo has agreed to acquire NYDIG’s institutional trading business. With this acquisition, BitGo will gain a presence in derivatives, structured products, financing, and other services for institutional clients. Approximately 30 NYDIG employees are moving to BitGo. The parties did not disclose the value of the deal.
BitGo previously went public in 2026 and raised approximately $213 million during its IPO. The acquisition of part of NYDIG signals the continued emergence in the crypto market of companies seeking to provide institutional investors with a full range of services—from asset custody to trading, settlement, and structured financing.
Regulation in the U.S., however, remains one of the main sources of uncertainty.
President Donald Trump continues to urge Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which is intended to more clearly delineate the powers of regulators and establish rules for the operation of the cryptocurrency market. The legislative process remains protracted, but the industry is already actively preparing for the midterm congressional elections.
Stand With Crypto, an organization supported by Coinbase, announced this week its endorsement of 32 candidates who have previously voted in favor of cryptocurrency legislation. According to Reuters estimates, the crypto industry as a whole has already allocated approximately $200 million to political activities as part of the 2026 election cycle.
Thus, the last week of August cemented several trends at once: Bitcoin once again reached a level of around $80,000, institutional capital returned to ETFs, stablecoins are increasingly being used for real-world payments, and the largest crypto companies continue to build infrastructure that increasingly resembles the traditional financial sector.
The main risk for the market in the coming weeks remains macroeconomic. Investors are awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Persistently high inflation has already reignited market expectations of a potential rate hike in the U.S., which is traditionally a negative factor for cryptocurrencies.
In September, attention will focus on the Fed meeting on September 16, U.S. labor market data, and trends in U.S. Treasury yields. Provided the dollar remains weak and demand for alternative assets stays high, the $80,000–83,000 range for Bitcoin will become a key technical threshold. A sustained breakout above this level could reignite market talk of $100,000, while rising yields and a hawkish stance from the Fed could push Bitcoin back into the mid-$70,000 range
Fixygen will continue to monitor the dynamics and trends of the crypto market.
