February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
In the last week of January, the crypto market went into risk-off mode: Bitcoin failed to hold above the psychological $90,000 level and fell to $81,000 at the peak of the decline, after which it partially rebounded.
According to Amberdata estimates, at the beginning of the week, BTC was trading at around $88,300 and ETH at around $2,920. The key support for Bitcoin at that time was the $86,000 range, with resistance at $90,000. By the end of the week, according to Binance, BTC was around $82,400 with a 24-hour range of approximately $80,600-86,400, and the total market capitalization was around $2.98 trillion.
The main trigger was the rapid liquidation of “overheated” positions amid increased volatility and macro factors. CoinDesk noted that the sell-off was accompanied by an estimated $7 billion in forced position closures and significant long liquidations, and took place on the eve of a large crypto options expiry ($8.4 billion).
A separate negative signal is the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: on certain days of the week, there were noticeable net outflows, and on January 29, according to Trading Economics, one of the largest daily outflows of about $0.6 billion was recorded.
Finally, expectations regarding interest rates and the rhetoric of central banks reinforced the background: the market once again became sensitive to bond yields and the dollar, which usually hits high-risk assets.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260130/pidsumki-tizhnya-dlya-kriptorinku-analiz-fixygen.html
The crypto asset market started 2026 with increased volatility and periodic sell-offs amid nervousness in global markets. On Monday, Bitcoin is trading at around $87,800, and Ether at around $2,900. The key short-term pressure factor is institutional demand behavior through exchange-traded products. According to Bloomberg, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw five consecutive days of outflows totaling approximately $1.7 billion last week, which heightened market participants’ caution. Additionally, Yahoo Finance reported notable weekly outflows from this category of funds.
At the same time, the crypto market remains linked to overall risk sentiment. Reuters recorded large capital flows in traditional markets in January, with investors more sensitive to geopolitics and trade restriction announcements, which typically increase demand for liquidity and reduce appetite for risky assets.
At the same time, the price decline is stimulating the launch of new strategies by major players. The Financial Times reported that Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million hedge fund in the first quarter of 2026, hoping to capitalize on market volatility and “maturation.”
A separate long-term trend is the acceleration of regulatory certainty and the convergence of the crypto industry with traditional finance. Reuters wrote about the introduction of a bill in the US that should clarify market rules and the distribution of roles between regulators. Against this backdrop, traditional asset managers are more actively testing tokenization: Reuters reported on F/m Investments’ application to tokenize ETF shares on US Treasury bills.
In Europe, the focus is shifting to the practical implementation of MiCA. ESMA reminds that for companies that operated under national rules until December 30, 2024, “grandfathering” applies — they can continue their services until July 1, 2026, or until a decision on the MiCA license is made. National regulators are also publishing their clarifications and transition schedules.
In the coming weeks, investors will typically look at the dynamics of flows in spot ETFs, regulatory news in the US and EU, and whether demand for “quality” within the crypto market — Bitcoin and the most liquid assets — will continue, while riskier tokens traditionally react more strongly to any spikes in volatility.
Bitcoin accelerated its growth in mid-January and is trading at around $97,024, updating the local highs of recent weeks. Ethereum is holding steady at $3,366.
According to CoinMarketCap, the global capitalisation of the crypto market is around $3.28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for around 59%, indicating a concentration of demand in the largest asset, while altcoins are growing less evenly.
The main driver in January is the return of institutional interest through ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows, including about $843.6 million on 14 January, with total inflows measured in billions of dollars over several days.
The second factor is the US macroeconomy. The market reacted to inflation data and rate expectations, which directly affect risk appetite and the cost of capital. After the publication of the December CPI, Bitcoin accelerated at certain moments, and volatility in crypto intensified.
January news markers that may affect the exchange rate.
Regulation in the US. On 13 January, senators introduced a bill on rules for the crypto market, including the division of powers between the SEC and CFTC and the approach to stablecoins. On 15 January, discussions in the Senate Banking Committee were postponed after public criticism from Coinbase. This is a typical trigger for the market: clear rules are a plus for valuations, while delays and disputes are a cause for nervousness.
Stablecoins and payments. Visa is publicly increasing its focus on stablecoin payments: the company estimates the current annual run rate of such payments at approximately $4.5 billion, with an estimated $270 billion in stablecoins in circulation. Any news about stablecoin regulation and the banking lobby in the US can quickly affect sentiment in crypto.
Risk of incidents and hacks. In January, the market already received a reminder of technological risks: some tokens fell to almost zero after exploits (an example is the incident surrounding Truebit). Such events usually hit the ‘second tier’ and increase demand for quality (BTC, large protocols).
The key event of the month is the FOMC meeting on 27-28 January 2026 and the subsequent press conference. The Fed’s rhetoric on rates and inflation remains one of the strongest external factors for crypto at the beginning of the year.
From November 3 to 8, 2025, the crypto market experienced a sharp decline and subsequent partial stabilization. Bitcoin fell to the $99–101 thousand range on November 4 and closed the week near $106–107 thousand, remaining below recent highs.
Drivers of the week. The market started with a decline on November 3–4 amid cautious signals from the Fed and increased appetite for profit-taking after a weak October. According to media estimates, the beginning of November brought a continued decline in major coins, with Bitcoin falling about 18% from its recent record high.
Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded net outflows on certain days of the week. On November 3, 4, and 6-7, there were negative cumulative flows, which put pressure on the price.
Ethereum was volatile following the market. On November 3–4, ETH fell by almost 9% per day, then partially recovered and traded at around $3,400–3,450 on November 8.
Funds and events. Publications noted that uncertainty about interest rates and geopolitics had dampened risk appetite. At the same time, interest in crypto-based products remained strong in the sector, including discussions of new exchange-traded funds, which supports medium-term expectations.
The week’s results for key indicators are as follows:
1) BTC range on November 3–8: maximum around $111 thousand on November 3, minimum around $99 thousand on November 4.
2) ETF flows: net outflows on certain days, including November 4 and November 6–7.
3) ETH range: $3,060–3,650, closing the week at around $3,440 on November 8.
The basis for forecasts and their scenarios is neutral-volatile. Support for BTC is visible in the range of $98–101 thousand, and maintaining it preserves the chances for consolidation and attempts to grow to $110–114 thousand. Risks are associated with continued outflows from ETFs and a general rotation in risk assets. An increase in inflows into funds and the absence of negative news regarding regulators could return the price to the upper limit of the range. If $98,000 is broken downwards, the risk of acceleration to $92–95,000 increases, with a subsequent search for a new balance. Estimates are based on price dynamics and ETF flows on November 3–8.
Over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) rose to the $4,000+ zone with multiple “defenses” of the $4,000 level at the end of October, after which it entered a correction amid mixed flows in crypto ETFs and a pause in regulatory decisions in the US. As of Wednesday morning, the price was hovering around $3,300, below last week’s highs.
What drove the market last month?
After several rebounds from $4,000 at the end of October, activity rose above average, but momentum faded at the $4,050–4,200 support levels.
The decisions on new crypto ETFs expected in October were postponed due to the government shutdown in the US; however, some products still entered the exchange under a simplified procedure, which shifted the “main” catalysts to November.
In September, the SEC approved unified listing standards for commodity ETPs on leading US exchanges, which simplified the launch of new crypto ETFs and supported expectations for the expansion of product lines (including multi-crypto funds). I
Now let’s analyze the main factors for November–December (base scenarios).
1) Moderately positive. The launch of new ETFs/updated prospectuses and the resumption of institutional inflows to ETH are strengthening demand; technically, a return above $3,800–4,000 opens the way for a retest of the autumn highs.
2) Neutral. Overestimated expectations for ETFs and subdued on-chain indicators keep ETH in a wide range of $3,000–3,800 without a trend; local rallies are quickly fixed. (Benchmark: recent “sell zones” of $4,050–4,200).
3) Risky. Increased macro volatility or new outflows from ETH ETFs could trigger a decline to $2,800–3,100; in this case, the market will focus on medium-term support, and decisive drivers will be postponed until 2026. (Examples of data on outflows/capital flows into altcoins appeared this week).
Interestingly, Citi in September cited a base case estimate of $4,300 at the end of the year with a bullish scenario of $6,400 under favorable macro conditions and the use of Ethereum applications; the bearish case is $2,200.
After the spring network updates, the industry is discussing the next steps in the Ethereum roadmap; industry reviews mention the following UX and scalability improvements, but the key issue for the market in the coming weeks remains the regulatory block on ETFs in the US.
Note: forecasts are probabilistic and depend on macro conditions, ETF news, and fund inflows/outflows; investment decisions should be made with risk in mind.
https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20251105/efir-prosiv-pislya-testu-4-tis-prognozi-na-listopad-gruden.html
