According to Fixygen, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price swings on individual trading days.
An analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most important factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders. This metric better explains changes in volatility than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the market size that matters, but also the structure of BTC holders.
Bitcoin, which previously circulated largely among speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This may reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and decrease the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more sustained bull market.
At the same time, the high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial situation of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market in the event of further price increases, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is, for now, more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If an increasing portion of the supply remains held by ETFs, corporations, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market traded with increased volatility during the week of March 2-7, 2026, amid geopolitical risks and cautious investor expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates in the US. Activity shifted toward defensive strategies, while interest in infrastructure tokens and select L2 projects remained strong, and altcoins moved unevenly.
Bitcoin showed sharp intraday fluctuations during the week, reacting to macroeconomic news and dollar movements, as well as changes in risk appetite on stock markets. Ether remained influenced by discussions about scalability and transaction costs, as well as news flow around the L2 ecosystem. The derivatives market saw a rapid shift in sentiment, from leveraging local dips to taking profits on rebounds, which amplified price movements.
The stablecoin segment remained a key “conductor” of liquidity during the week: investors actively used stablecoins to park capital and quickly re-enter the market. In DeFi, interest in short-term income strategies remained high, but sensitivity to smart contract risks and protocol news remained high. The meme token sector saw sporadic activity, but no sustained overall trend.
The regulatory environment was defined by increased attention to compliance and risk control on crypto exchanges in major jurisdictions, which supported demand for “white” platforms and products with a transparent structure. The market also discussed the implications for the industry of expanding restrictions on settlements and access to financial infrastructure, which increased interest in diversifying liquidity channels.
Next week, market participants will focus on macroeconomic publications in the US and regulatory rhetoric, as well as the dynamics of risk assets. For the crypto market, the key factor remains the balance between liquidity inflows, risk demand, and geopolitical news, which has been rapidly changing investor sentiment in recent weeks.
If you want, I can make a second version in the classic Fixygen “numbers of the week” format — with a table of the top 10 movements, capitalization, BTC dominance, changes in TVL DeFi, and key news about exchanges and regulators — but for that, I need to clarify which sources you want to use to calculate prices (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or TradingView).
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market traded with increased volatility during the week of March 2-7, 2026, amid geopolitical risks and cautious investor expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates in the US. Activity shifted toward defensive strategies, while interest in infrastructure tokens and select L2 projects remained strong, and altcoins moved unevenly.
Bitcoin showed sharp intraday fluctuations during the week, reacting to macroeconomic news and dollar movements, as well as changes in risk appetite on stock markets. Ether remained influenced by discussions about scalability and transaction costs, as well as news flow around the L2 ecosystem. The derivatives market saw a rapid shift in sentiment, from leveraging local dips to taking profits on rebounds, which amplified price movements.
The stablecoin segment remained a key “conductor” of liquidity during the week: investors actively used stablecoins to park capital and quickly re-enter the market. In DeFi, interest in short-term income strategies remained high, but sensitivity to smart contract risks and protocol news remained high. The meme token sector saw sporadic activity, but no sustained overall trend.
The regulatory environment was defined by increased attention to compliance and risk control on crypto exchanges in major jurisdictions, which supported demand for “white” platforms and products with a transparent structure. The market also discussed the implications for the industry of expanding restrictions on settlements and access to financial infrastructure, which increased interest in diversifying liquidity channels.
Next week, market participants will focus on macroeconomic publications in the US and regulatory rhetoric, as well as the dynamics of risk assets. For the crypto market, the key factor remains the balance between liquidity inflows, risk demand, and geopolitical news, which has been rapidly changing investor sentiment in recent weeks.
The crypto asset market started 2026 with increased volatility and periodic sell-offs amid nervousness in global markets. On Monday, Bitcoin is trading at around $87,800, and Ether at around $2,900. The key short-term pressure factor is institutional demand behavior through exchange-traded products. According to Bloomberg, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw five consecutive days of outflows totaling approximately $1.7 billion last week, which heightened market participants’ caution. Additionally, Yahoo Finance reported notable weekly outflows from this category of funds.
At the same time, the crypto market remains linked to overall risk sentiment. Reuters recorded large capital flows in traditional markets in January, with investors more sensitive to geopolitics and trade restriction announcements, which typically increase demand for liquidity and reduce appetite for risky assets.
At the same time, the price decline is stimulating the launch of new strategies by major players. The Financial Times reported that Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million hedge fund in the first quarter of 2026, hoping to capitalize on market volatility and “maturation.”
A separate long-term trend is the acceleration of regulatory certainty and the convergence of the crypto industry with traditional finance. Reuters wrote about the introduction of a bill in the US that should clarify market rules and the distribution of roles between regulators. Against this backdrop, traditional asset managers are more actively testing tokenization: Reuters reported on F/m Investments’ application to tokenize ETF shares on US Treasury bills.
In Europe, the focus is shifting to the practical implementation of MiCA. ESMA reminds that for companies that operated under national rules until December 30, 2024, “grandfathering” applies — they can continue their services until July 1, 2026, or until a decision on the MiCA license is made. National regulators are also publishing their clarifications and transition schedules.
In the coming weeks, investors will typically look at the dynamics of flows in spot ETFs, regulatory news in the US and EU, and whether demand for “quality” within the crypto market — Bitcoin and the most liquid assets — will continue, while riskier tokens traditionally react more strongly to any spikes in volatility.
