According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a large-scale quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.
The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation stood at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. A day earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% monthly increase and a 5.4% annual increase.
Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures markets priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus forecast among economists had predicted that the rate would remain at 3.50–3.75%.
For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally an unfavorable factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the regulator signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.
U.S. retail sales data for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, this figure fell for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher interest rates, while weak sales could somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date is confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (
On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current situation, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are spilling over into U.S. inflation.
The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters survey, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points—to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is significant due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested them in more profitable and risky assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears of a unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.
Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options takes place on Deribit. Based on calculations using exchange open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another roughly $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.
An expiration date alone does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin prices during option expiration periods, especially when large positions held by market makers are present.
On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on U.S. job openings. Following a strong August jobs report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for proponents of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high number of job openings could put pressure back on Bitcoin due to rising U.S. bond yields.
But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. This report contains the PCE price index—the primary inflation measure the Fed uses as a guide.
If the PCE shows rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes by the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Conversely, a weaker PCE could bring back market expectations that monetary tightening is coming to an end.
The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5% on September 11—its highest level since 2023—as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.
In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB directly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will sequentially see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.
In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and inflation in the U.S. remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may find a reason to rebound by the end of September.
The key indicator following each data release will be not only the figure itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar’s exchange rate could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.
The total market capitalization of the global stablecoin market has reached approximately $305.4 billion, continuing to grow amid the widespread adoption of digital dollars in cryptocurrency payments, trading, and decentralized finance, according to Fixygen.
According to DefiLlama, as of September 10, 2026, the supply of stablecoins has increased by approximately $1.69 billion, or 0.56%, over the past seven days, and by 1.6% over the past 30 days.
Tether (USDT) remains the largest stablecoin with a market capitalization of about $183.4 billion. It accounts for approximately 60% of the entire segment.
In second place is USDC, issued by Circle, with a market capitalization of about $74.5 billion. Over the past month, its supply has increased by approximately 3%.
Thus, the two largest dollar-pegged stablecoins alone control about 84.4% of the entire market.
In third place is Sky Dollar (USDS) with a market capitalization of approximately $6.64 billion, followed by DAI at $4.79 billion and Ethena USDe at approximately $4.44 billion.
USDe has recently shown the most notable growth among major stablecoins: its market capitalization has increased by approximately 13% over the past month.
The growth in stablecoin market capitalization is an important indicator of the state of the cryptocurrency market. Unlike the rise in the value of Bitcoin or Ethereum, an increase in the market capitalization of dollar-pegged tokens largely signifies the emergence of additional nominal volume of digital dollars that can be used for trading, remittances, lending, and other transactions within the cryptoeconomy.
Therefore, the growth in the supply of stablecoins is often viewed as an indicator of increased available liquidity. However, this in itself does not guarantee further growth in Bitcoin or other crypto assets—some of the funds may be used for settlements, international transfers, or held outside of risky assets.
The market structure remains extremely concentrated: USDT accounts for six out of every ten dollars of the segment’s market capitalization, and the gap between Tether and its closest competitor, USDC, exceeds $108 billion.
Stablecoins are digital tokens whose value is typically pegged to traditional currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar. They are one of the main settlement instruments in the cryptocurrency market and, at the same time, are increasingly being used beyond its borders for international payments and money transfers.
Data source: DefiLlama Stablecoins
According to Fixygen, Ethereum is becoming the second-largest digital asset—after Bitcoin—that public companies are using to build corporate cryptocurrency reserves.
According to The Block’s Ethereum Treasury Tracker as of September 9–10, 2026, the nine publicly traded companies tracked hold a total of approximately 7.63 million ETH on their balance sheets. The value of these reserves is estimated at approximately $19 billion.
BitMine Immersion Technologies has emerged as the clear leader. The company announced on September 8 that it had increased its portfolio to 5.929 million ETH. In addition, BitMine holds 211 BTC, cash and marketable securities totaling $593 million, as well as a number of other investments.
The company estimates the total value of its cryptocurrency, cash, and marketable securities at $15.7 billion.
According to BitMine’s own estimates, the 5.93 million ETH it owns accounts for approximately 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply.
At the same time, the company has already staked approximately 5.067 million ETH. At the time of the announcement, BitMine valued this amount at approximately $12.6 billion.
SharpLink ranks second among public corporate holders of Ethereum with 868,700 ETH worth approximately $2.15 billion, followed by Dynamix Corporation in third place with 496,700 ETH worth approximately $1.24 billion.
Next are Bit Digital with 158,500 ETH, BTCS with 70,100 ETH, and Forum Markets with 69,800 ETH.
Thus, BitMine alone controls about 78% of all ETH held in specialized corporate Ethereum reserves tracked by The Block.
The emerging model resembles the strategy that Strategy began implementing with Bitcoin several years ago, though there is a significant difference with Ethereum. A company can not only hold the digital asset in anticipation of its value increasing but also stake it to earn additional returns.
At the same time, this model carries additional risks—ranging from ETH volatility to fluctuations in staking yields and a potential discount on the company’s stock relative to the value of the Ethereum it holds.
As of September 10, ETH is trading at $2,470.
Data source: Ethereum Treasury Tracker
The share of Ethereum held in staking has exceeded 35% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply, and the queue of users waiting to add new funds to the validator network has stretched to nearly 33 days, according to Fixygen.
According to Ethereum Validator Queue data as of September 10, approximately 42.9 million ETH, or 35.19% of the Ethereum supply, is in staking. The network has about 909,700 active validators.
At the same time, approximately 1.895 million ETH was in the queue to join the network. The estimated wait time for a new validator to join was 32 days and 22 hours.
The situation with withdrawals is the opposite: only about 25,300 ETH was in the withdrawal queue, and the wait time was about 10.5 hours. After a validator withdrew, the additional delay until the funds were actually received was estimated at approximately 7.9 days.
This ratio of queues indicates a significantly higher current demand for entering staking than for exiting it.
The yield on Ethereum staking is approximately 2.59% per annum. It varies depending on the amount of ETH used to support the network’s operation and other protocol parameters.
The increase in the amount of ETH locked in Ethereum validators potentially reduces the supply of coins directly available on the market. However, it would be incorrect to consider all 42.9 million ETH as completely removed from circulation: some staking is conducted through liquid protocols that issue derivative tokens circulating on the market.
An additional factor is the growing interest in Ethereum among public companies. The largest corporate holder of ETH, BitMine Immersion Technologies, announced on September 8 that of the 5.93 million ETH it owns, 5.067 million are already staked.
Amid the rise in staking, Ethereum is trading at around $2,470. As of September 10, the price of ETH stands at approximately $2,468, down from $2,485 the previous day.
Ethereum transitioned to the Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism in September 2022. Validators lock up ETH to validate transactions and secure the network, receiving rewards in return.
Data source: Ethereum Validator Queue
According to Fixygen, the value of cryptocurrencies held on the balance sheets of public companies has reached approximately $123 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for over 81% of corporate digital reserves.
According to The Block’s Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker as of September 10, 2026, the database lists 119 public companies, of which 109 hold active cryptocurrency reserves. The total value of their digital assets is estimated at approximately $123 billion.
Bitcoin accounts for about $99.8 billion, or 81.1% of the total. Public companies that use Bitcoin as their primary digital reserve asset collectively control about 1.274 million BTC.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the undisputed leader. As of September 7, the company held 845.05 thousand BTC. $63.73 billion was spent to acquire this amount, and the average purchase price was approximately $75,400 per Bitcoin. Strategy disclosed this information on September 8 in a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to The Block’s current estimate, the value of Bitcoin on MicroStrategy’s balance sheet exceeds $66 billion. Thus, a single company accounts for approximately two-thirds of the value of corporate Bitcoin reserves tracked by the index.
Other major holders include Twenty One Capital with 43,514 thousand BTC, Japan’s Metaplanet with 43 thousand BTC, and mining company MARA with 35,303 thousand BTC. Another approximately 30 thousand BTC belongs to Cantor Equity Partners I, an entity linked to the upcoming BSTR deal.
The second-largest corporate cryptocurrency position after Strategy is no longer Bitcoin, but Ethereum. BitMine Immersion Technologies has accumulated nearly 5.93 million ETH worth approximately $14.7 billion.
The expansion of corporate crypto reserves means that digital assets are gradually transforming from a tool primarily used by private crypto investors into a separate line item on the balance sheets of public companies.
At the same time, the digital reserve strategy creates additional market risk. The stock prices of such companies are beginning to depend simultaneously on their core business, the value of the cryptocurrency they hold, capital-raising conditions, and the premium or discount to the value of crypto assets at which the stock market values the company.
Data source: Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker
According to Fixygen, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $986.9 million in net inflows for the week ending September 4, extending their streak of positive weeks to three in a row.
According to SoSoValue data cited by The Block, inflows increased compared to $924.5 million the previous week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, attracting $691.5 million over the week.
Meanwhile, on September 3, net inflows into all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $730.9 million, marking the highest daily figure since mid-January. The following day, the funds received an additional $174.6 million.
Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week totaled $14.5 billion, compared to nearly $19 billion the week before. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $218.4 million, also marking their third consecutive week of positive inflows. Their trading volume totaled $4.1 billion.
Overall, August was one of the strongest months for institutional crypto products in the past year. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.52 billion—the highest since September 2025—while Ethereum ETFs received $1.85 billion, marking their best monthly performance since August of last year.
The shift in sentiment was even more pronounced in the third week of August, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion, Ethereum ETFs—$697.2 million, and the combined turnover of both categories more than tripled—to $29 billion.
However, inflows remain uneven. Following a strong previous week, approximately $46.6 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs on September 8. Thus, institutional demand has resumed, but investors remain sensitive to macroeconomic data and expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
Bitcoin itself corrected after rising above $81,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 9, it was trading at around $78,300, and the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at approximately $1.58 trillion.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exchange-traded exposure to Bitcoin without having to store the cryptocurrency themselves. The largest players in the U.S. market are BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK/21Shares, and Bitwise.
Data source — SoSoValue/The Block: Bitcoin ETF flow data
