According to Fixygen, Iran is seeking to include a payment mechanism for ships passing through this key energy route in future agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times reported that Tehran wants to charge fees to loaded oil tankers, and, according to the publication, the Iranian Union of Oil Exporters insists on payments in cryptocurrency.
However, an independent review shows that the parameters of such a mechanism remain unclear. Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that Iran does indeed intend to charge a fee for passage through the strait as part of a potential peace agreement; however, according to this information, the fee amount is expected to vary depending on the type of vessel, the nature of the cargo, and other conditions.
Reports of preparations for a protocol with Oman, which may provide for permits and licenses for passage through the strait, serve as an additional indication that Tehran is already attempting to institutionalize control over the passage.
About one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices fell sharply, but market participants continue to factor in the risk that even if shipping resumes, Iran will attempt to maintain economic and political control over the route through new fees and restrictions.
Global stock markets, including U.S. stock index futures, surged on Wednesday following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran in exchange for the full and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that Iran would also suspend its strikes. “This will be a bilateral ceasefire,” the U.S. president emphasized. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed its agreement to a ceasefire with the U.S., according to Abbas Arakchi, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister.
On this news, futures on U.S. stock indices are rising by more than 2%. As of 8:51 a.m., the Dow Jones futures index rose by 2.4%, S&P 500 futures rose by 2.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped by 3.3%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a composite stock index for the Asia-Pacific region, soared by more than 5%.
Amid expectations of increased Middle Eastern fuel supplies to the global market, June Brent futures had plummeted 14.3% to $93.69 per barrel by 8:52 a.m., while May WTI fell 15.3% to $95.71 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against six major global currencies, is down 1.17%. Analysts believe that cheaper oil, should a long-term peace be established in the Middle East, would exert less upward pressure on inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to continue its course of gradually lowering interest rates.
Amid expectations of a more dovish monetary policy in the U.S. than previously anticipated, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 5.5 basis points during trading to 4.245%.
The general trend in global markets on Wednesday is rising demand for risky assets and selling of so-called “safe-haven assets” amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. Gold proved to be a notable exception—the precious metal is rising in price amid a falling dollar, as the weak U.S. currency boosts gold’s investment appeal.
Gold futures are up 3.8% and trading near $4,864 per troy ounce.
The UAE insists that any political settlement of the conflict with Iran must include not only a ceasefire but also guarantees against new attacks, as well as a mechanism for reparations for strikes on civilian infrastructure and the populations of the Gulf states. This was stated by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president.
Gargash’s statement generally aligns with the broader position of the Arab Gulf states, previously articulated at the UN Human Rights Council. According to Reuters, the region’s countries accused Iran of striking energy and civilian infrastructure and supported a resolution condemning these attacks, demanding reparations, and mandating UN monitoring of the situation.
The Gulf states are also insisting that any agreement with Iran not be limited to a formal cessation of hostilities, but include a long-term reduction of its missile and drone capabilities, as well as the protection of the region’s energy and transportation infrastructure.
The price of May Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $6.09 (6.62%) to $98.07 per barrel at 7:12 a.m. Earlier during the session, Brent again exceeded $100 per barrel. On Wednesday, the contract rose in price by $4.18 (4.8%) to $91.98 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are currently up $5.29 (6.06%) to $92.54 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts rose by $3.8 (4.6%) to $87.25 per barrel.
An Iranian underwater drone attacked two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf overnight, Iranian state television IRIB reported. Earlier, a source in the Iraqi security service in Basra told CNN that a ship loaded with explosives rammed into two tankers at once.
CNN specifies that the ships Zefyros, flying the Maltese flag, and Safesea Vishnu, flying the Marshall Islands flag, were on fire. The registered owner of the Safesea Vishnu is the American company Safesea Transport Inc., while the owner of the Zefyros is based in Greece.
Iraq’s oil ports have been suspended following the fire, according to Farhan al-Fartousi, head of the Iraqi Ports Authority. He said one person had died and 38 others had been rescued.
Meanwhile, Oman has ordered ships to leave the Mina al-Fahal export terminal as a precaution, Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources. According to Kpler, about 1 million barrels of oil were exported from the terminal daily.
Earlier, a representative of the Iranian armed forces said that the world should prepare for oil at $200 per barrel, as fuel prices depend on security in the region, and Israel and the US have violated this security with their actions.
“The only thing that could lead to a long-term decline in prices is the resumption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts wrote. “If this does not happen, we can expect new highs.”
Oil prices rose yesterday, despite the fact that OPEC member countries agreed to supply a record 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves to the world market. The timing of the release of reserves will depend on the circumstances in each individual country. The total strategic oil reserves of IEA member countries exceed 1.2 billion barrels, with another 600 million barrels in state-owned industrial reserves.
“The release of IEA oil reserves may only be a temporary solution, while supply disruptions and significant production cuts in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply shortage,” said Tina Teng of Moomoo ANZ.
On Wednesday, it was also reported that commercial oil reserves in the US rose by 3.824 million barrels last week to a maximum of 443.1 million barrels since May 2025. Experts had forecast an average increase of 1.1 million barrels, according to Trading Economics.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video dedicated to global oil production in 1900–2024 and the leading producing countries.
Brent, EXPERTS CLUB, IRAN, OIL, TANKER
The escalation of the war around Iran has already gone beyond a regional conflict and has become a factor in global inflation. On March 9, Brent rose above $119 per barrel intraday, its highest level since 2022, and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The scale of the risk is also explained by logistics: in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption.
For Ukraine, the fastest channel for transmitting such a shock is the fuel market. After losing a significant part of its own refining capacity, the country relies on imports: in 2024, Ukraine imported about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, and in January-September 2025, imports of petroleum products reached 5.67 million tons. Even before the current price surge, the market remained sensitive to logistics and external conditions: The NBU noted an acceleration in the growth of prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas due to supply disruptions, and Reuters reported that in January 2026, gasoline imports grew by 70% year-on-year due to a shortage of domestic production. This makes gasoline, diesel, and autogas the most likely first group of goods to react to a protracted oil shock.
“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through rising fuel costs, and then through higher logistics, import, and food prices. For our economy, this is not only an external shock, but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics and a high share of transport costs. In 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of agri-food products by 13% to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. The largest items in the procurement structure were fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), coffee, tea, and spices ($471 million), and vegetables ($467 million). It is these categories — from bananas and citrus fruits to coffee, chocolate, and seafood — that are most sensitive to increases in freight, fuel, refrigerated logistics, and dollar-denominated commodity prices.
“Consumers will feel the price increases most noticeably where there is a large share of imports and transportation costs. First and foremost, this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood, and fruit, and a little later, goods whose prices include more expensive fertilizers, gas, and packaging,” Urakin noted.
The third risk area is fertilizers and then Ukrainian-produced food. There has already been an increase in prices not only for oil and gas, but also for sugar, fertilizers, and soybeans following the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35-40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is doubly sensitive for Ukraine: the NBU previously estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tons.
According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports has already exceeded 60%. This means that if oil and gas prices remain high for a long time, in a few months the pressure may shift to the cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat, and other food products.
Products linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve special mention. Oil is a basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters has already noted that aluminum prices have risen to a four-year high amid the current conflict. This increases the risk of price increases for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain types of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials, and some construction products. The same applies to bitumen, a direct petroleum product, whose imports to Ukraine, according to industry estimates, will remain significant in 2026.
The currency factor could be an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of the war, investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven asset. This is important for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers, and a significant portion of other imports are denominated in dollars, and the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 50% of trade in goods. Even without a physical deficit, this increases the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia.
However, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products, where Ukraine remains a major producer — primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower oil — are less dependent on immediate imports, and the wheat and corn harvest in 2025 turned out to be better than early expectations.
Therefore, in the short term, fuel, imported fruits and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals, and some construction materials are likely to see the sharpest price increases. But if the energy shock drags on, the rise in logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of Ukrainian-made goods.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/
Azerbaijan has suspended transport across the state border with Iran and closed its airspace at the border. Earlier, Azerbaijan accused Iran of launching drone strikes on the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and said it reserved the right to take appropriate measures. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reported that one drone hit the Nakhchivan airport terminal, while another fell near a school building in the village of Shakarabad. Two civilians were injured in the attack, and the airport buildings were damaged.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry demanded that Tehran provide an explanation as soon as possible, conduct an investigation, and take measures to prevent similar incidents from recurring. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the ministry to receive a note of protest.
Against the backdrop of the incident, regional media and expert commentators are discussing the possibility of invoking the mechanisms provided for in the Shusha Declaration on Alliance Relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The document stipulates that in the event of a threat or act of aggression by a third state, the parties shall hold joint consultations and provide each other with the necessary assistance in accordance with the UN Charter.
At the time of publication, there was no official announcement of the start of formal consultations on the Shusha Declaration, but Ankara and Baku maintain constant coordination on regional security issues, including at the level of the foreign ministries.
